The SNP juggernaut continues

There were no surprises in the two by-elections last Thursday as the Scottish Nationalists eased to a first round victory in Aberdeen and the Conservatives comfortably held their seat in Surrey. In both wards the Liberal Democrats came second at the previous election and their fortunes varied greatly in the two contests. Their sharp drop in Aberdeen was very much in line with the Scottish Parliament results earlier in the month but in Surrey their vote share held up much better than the recent local election results would have suggested.

We'll start in Scotland where the SNP stormed to victory in the Dyce by-election, winning the seat on first preference votes alone. The victory was made on an emphatic swing, largely from the Liberal Democrats to the SNP as was seen across the country at the Holyrood elections. The SNP's share of first preference votes rose by over 15% compared to 2007, while the Liberal Democrats fell by the same percentage. The Labour, Conservative and Green shares remained more or less the same as four years ago.

This will be seen as a good omen to the SNP, who are already looking to next year's local elections with aspirations of maintaining their momentum to take control of councils across Scotland. It will also give them encouragement for another by-election being held in Aberdeen next month, in the Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee ward, where they narrowly failed to win a seat in 2007.

This gain from the Liberal Democrats has turned the SNP into the largest party on Aberdeen City Council, and already they have called on the current council leader to resign to allow the SNP to take overall control of the administration. It is as yet unclear whether the Lib Dem council leader will accept these calls, and if he does then whether his party would be willing to continue in coalition with the SNP. KK

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		LAB		CON			ACN*			IND			VAC
14	+1	13	-1	10	-	2		-	2	-		1	-		1	-
Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone
By-Election Candidate							Votes				Vote %			+/-
Neil MacGregor (E)							2090				51.4%			+15.2%
Graeme Lawrence							941				23.1%			-1.8%
Kristian Chapman							446				11.0%			-15.2%
Ross Thomson							352				8.7%			+0.3%
Angela Joss							150				3.7%			+3.7%
Rhonda Reekie							88				2.2%			+0.1%

Compared to the Scottish result the Liberal Democrats' vote was surprisingly resilient in Surrey. Having fallen 63 votes short of winning the St Johns & Brookwood County Council ward in 2009 this is the sort of by-election the Lib Dems would be looking to win in recent years but circumstances have changed over the past six months or so and a strong second would have been a welcome relief. They managed that much, although the Conservatives' enjoyed a 4.4% swing to them from their national coalition partners as they held the seat comfortable.

The movement in vote share was surprisingly orderly as the Tories 6% increase was mirrored in UKIPs 6% decreased. Given that the last election in this ward took place on the same day as the 2009 European Election, when UKIP came second nationally, this is more a reflection on their good performance two years ago. The Liberal Democrats lost 3% on their 2009 result which was seemingly picked up by Labour, who overtook UKIP for 3^rd place. Linda Kemeny's 285 vote win increased the Tories majority on Surrey County Council to 32. TH

St Johns & Brookwood (Surrey)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Linda Kemeny (E)	1343	48.9%	+5.9%
Tina Liddington	1058	38.6%	-2.9%
Janice Worgan	188	6.9%	+3.1%
Duncan Clarke	155	5.6%	-6.1%