Thursday, 5 May 2011

Scotland Votes: Final Projection

If haven't seen our Wales projection and would like to see it, it is here.


And so onto our final Scotland projections. I shall be doing this region by region, I shall first be giving a final projection of what I think the result in each constituency seat will be (and there will be no ‘too closes’ in this one, I will be calling every seat) and then I shall be using a combination of those, recent polling and my own electoral knowledge and gut instinct to project a final slate of seats for each region. I’ll be going through the regions in alphabetical order. Once that is done I shall produce a table of what I think the final results will be. Here goes.

Central Scotland

Original posts: North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire and Falkirk, Regionals

Constituencies:

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Airdrie & Shotts

Karen Whitefield

633

1.4%

1999

Lab Hold

Coatbridge & Chryston

Elaine Smith

4340

9.2%

1999

Lab Hold

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Cathy Craigie

2079

4%

1999

Lab Hold

East Kilbride

Andy Kerr

2108

3.4%

1999

Lab Hold

Falkirk East

Catty Peattie

1839

3.1%

1999

Lab Hold

Falkirk West

Michael Matheson

743

1.3%

2007

SNP Hold

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Tom McCabe

3623

6.7%

1999

Lab Hold

Motherwell & Wishaw

Jack McConnell

5974

11.4%

1999

Lab Hold

Uddingston & Bellshill

Michael McMahon

5584

10.5%

1999

Lab Hold

In our original projection we had Airdrie and Shotts and Falkirk East down as ‘too close’. Having talked with those on the ground my feeling is now that Labour will hold these two seats, though it will be close.

Regionals and Overall projection:

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

8

0

8

SNP

1

6

7

Conservatives

0

1

1

Lib. Dems.

0

0

0

Greens

0

0

0

Uniform swing leans towards these figures and I’m inclined to agree. On these figures we are projecting the election of the following MSPs:

Additional Members

1. Alex Neil

2. Jamie Hepburn

3. Linda Fabiani

4. Richard Lyle

5. Christina McKelvie

6. Margaret Mitchell

7. Angus MacDonald

Overall this gives us the following changes:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

Labour

8

8

0

SNP

6

7

+1

Conservatives

1

1

0

Lib Dems

1

0

-1

Greens

0

0

0

All fairly stable in Central Scotland then! The Lib Dems lose a seat, which is almost inevitable considering their poor 2007 result, and the SNP pick it up.

Glasgow

Original posts: Northern half, Southern Half, Regionals

Final constituency projections:

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Glasgow Anniesland

Bill Butler

5045

10.1%

2000

Lab Hold

Glasgow Cathcart

Charlie Gordon

1852

3.5%

2005

Lab Hold

Glasgow Kelvin

Pauline McNeill

1007

2.3%

1999

SNP Gain

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Patricia Ferguson

3478

8.6%

1999

Lab Hold

Glasgow Pollok

Johann Lamont

4555

9.9%

1999

Lab Hold

Glasgow Provan

Paul Martin

5560

14.2%

1999

Lab Hold

Glasgow Shettleston

Frank McAveety

4240

11.3%

1999

Lab Hold

Glasgow Southside

Nicola Sturgeon

-27

0.1%

2007

SNP Hold

Rutherglen

James Kelly

5947

10.8%

2007

Lab Hold

Our original seat projections for Glasgow took place at a time when the SNP lead in the polls was much closer. We originally projected Cathcart as too close, but as the SNP bounce seems to have receded I think its fair to call it as a Labour hold. Nonetheless we continue to project student seat Glasgow Kelvin for the SNP and for Nicola Sturgeon to hold her Glasgow Southside seat.

Final regional projection:

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

7

1

8

SNP

2

5

7

Conservatives

0

0

0

Lib. Dems.

0

0

0

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Humza Yousef

2. Bob Doris

3. Patrick Harvie

4. Sid Khan

5. James Dornan

6. Hanzala Malik

7. Bill Kidd

Overall that gives us a projection of:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

Labour

8

8

0

SNP

6

7

+1

Greens

0

1

+1

Conservatives

1

0

-1

Lib Dems

1

0

-1

We are projecting both the Lib Dems and the Tories to lose a seat. The Lib Dems due to their woes, the Tories due to a combination of a small shift downwards in their polling and recurrent problems with their candidates in Glasgow.

Highlands and Islands

Original posts: Islands, Highlands, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Argyll & Bute

Jim Mather

807

1.5%

2007

SNP Hold

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Jamie Stone

5550

4.3%

1999

SNP Gain

Inverness & Nairn

Fergus Ewing

4995

6.8%

1999

SNP Hold

Moray

Richard Lochhead

7286

13%

2006

SNP Hold

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Alasdair Allan

687

2.6%

2007

SNP Hold

Orkney Islands

Liam McArthur

2476

14.4%

2007

LD Hold

Shetland Islands

Tavish Scott

4909

25.1%

1999

LD Hold

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

John Farquahar Munro

2784

5.2%

1999

SNP Gain

While we originally projected Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch as ‘too close’ the shift in polling since this projection, the lack of any sort of incumbency advantage, and the retiring MSPs John Farquahar Munro’s seeming endorsement of Alex Salmond, all lead me to suggest that the SNP will sweep the Lib Dems Highlands stronghold where figures like Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander find their homes at Westminster. The two Islands seats are not impregnable either. Despite their huge majorities both island seats, particularly Shetland, have significant buzz about local independent candidates. Independent politics runs a long way in these areas and I am informed that on the Shetland the independent candidate Billy Fox has the biggest campaign. Tavish Scott is still the bookies favourite, but you can get a 6/4 on Billy Fox unseating the Scottish Lib Dem leader. If Scott is unseated, of course, it will be a massive blow to the party on what is not likely to be a good night, especially as there is no obvious successor waiting in the wings.

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

0

3

3

SNP

6

1

7

Conservatives

0

2

2

Lib. Dems.

2

0

2

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Rhoda Grant

2. Dave Stewart

3. Jamie McGrigor

4. Linda Stewart

5. Eleanor Scott

6. John Finnie

7. Mary Scanlon

Uniform swing on our projections would give the Lib Dems an extra regional seat. However my feeling is that the Lib Dems will lose more here than uniform swing would project and therefore the party will be reduced to its two constituency seats. Looking over the figures the SNP was theoretically best placed to pick up the final seat, however my feeling is that the momentum in the polls is against the SNP and that the Conservatives may be slightly underperforming so I have given the final seat to the Tories instead, as they were just behind the SNP. Labour could also, theoretically, pick up the seat quite easily as well.

Overall that gives us a projection of:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

SNP

6

7

+1

Labour

3

3

0

Lib Dems

4

2

-2

Conservatives

2

2

0

Greens

0

1

+1

Disaster for the Lib Dems as they lose two seats in one of their strongest heartlands, and the SNP and Greens pick them up overall.

Lothian

Original posts: Edinburgh, Other Constituencies, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Almond Valley

Angela Constance

4

0.1%

2007

SNP Hold

Edinburgh Central

Sarah Boyack

-719

1.3%

1999

Lab Gain

Edinburgh Eastern

Kenny MacAskill

-545

0.9%

2007

SNP Gain

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Malcolm Chisholm

2204

3.7%

4.2%

2007

Lab Hold

Edinburgh Pentlands

David McLetchie

2742

4.4%

4.5%

2003

Con Hold

Edinburgh Southern

Mike Pringle

3955

6.2%

2003

LD Hold

Edinburgh Western

Margaret Smith

5759

8.6%

1999

LD Hold

Linlithgow

Mary Mulligan

294

0.5%

1999

SNP Gain

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Rhona Brankin

1493

2.6%

1999

SNP Gain

I projected three seats as ‘too close’ in my original projection: Edinburgh Northern and Leith, Southern and Western. I now feel that the lower SNP polling of late, the incumbency advantage usually demonstrated by Lib Dems and Edinburgh’s more middle class populace will see the incumbents in these three seats hold on, though I think the two Lib Dem seats, in particular, are ones to really watch this evening.

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

2

3

5

SNP

4

2

6

Conservatives

1

0

1

Lib. Dems.

2

0

2

Greens

0

1

1

Margo MacDonald

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Kezia Dugdale

2. Alison Johnstone

3. Neil Findlay

4. Shirley-Ann Somerville

5. Margo MacDonald

6. Ann Henderson

7. George Kerevan

Overall:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

SNP

5

6

+1

Labour

4

5

+1

Lib Dems

3

2

-1

Conservatives

2

1

-1

Greens

1

1

0

Margo MacDonald

1

1

0

We project a seat loss for both the Lib Dems and the Tories then to the gain of the SNP and Labour. There is an interesting effect of the electoral system here however: if the Lib Dems lose one of the two constituency seats we are projecting them as holding very closely, the Conservatives will pick up a seat and re-elect Gavin Brown.

Mid Scotland and Fife

Original posts: Fife, Mid Scotland, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Keith Brown

762

1.4%

2007

SNP Hold

Cowdenbeath

Helen Eadie

3839

7.3%

1999

Lab Hold

Dunfermline

Jim Tolson

77

0.2%

2007

Lab Gain

Fife Mid & Glenrothes

Tricia Marwick

2283

4.6%

2007

SNP Hold

Fife North East

Iain Smith

4566

7.8%

1999

LD Hold

Kirkcaldy

Marilyn Livingstone

3354

5.9%

1999

Lab Hold

Perthshire North

John Swinney

6542

10.8%

2003

SNP Hold

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Roseanna Cunningham

1384

2.3%

1999

SNP Hold

Stirling

Bruce Crawford

-389

0.7%

2007

SNP Gain

I originally projected Dunfermline as ‘too close’. I have no idea what I was thinking at the time and was rightfully pilloried from all sides for my own silliness in making such a bad call – it’s a clear Labour Gain waiting to happen. I also marked Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane as ‘Too Close’, at the time the Labour party was still leading in the polls. It was always my instinct that the SNP would poll better later in the campaign and my gut was proven right as such we now have the SNP winning both seats. This leaves us with the following regionals:

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

3

2

5

SNP

5

2

7

Conservatives

0

2

2

Lib. Dems.

1

0

1

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Murdo Fraser

2. John Park

3. Annabelle Ewing

4. Elizabeth Smith

5. Claire Baker

6. Mark Ruskell

7. Keith Brown

Leaving us with changes of:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

SNP

6

7

+1

Labour

5

5

0

Conservatives

3

2

-1

Lib Dems

2

1

-1

Greens

0

1

+1

Our projection shows both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems losing a seat each, with the Greens and SNP picking them up.

North East Scotland

Originals: Rural seats, Urban Seats, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Aberdeen Central

Lewis MacDonald

-349

0.7%

1.7%

1999

SNP Hold

Aberdeen Doneside

Brian Adam

3551

6.6%

2003

SNP Hold

Aberdeen South & Kincardine North

Nicol Stephen

2071

3.7%

1999

SNP Gain

Aberdeenshire East

Alex Salmond

4535

7.1%

2007

SNP Hold

Aberdeenshire West

Mike Rumbles

3779

6.3%

1999

LD Hold

Angus North & Mearns

4916

10.5%

-

SNP Hold

Angus South

Andrew Welsh

6007

9.9%

1999

SNP Hold

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Stewart Stevenson

12082

19.6%

2001

SNP Hold

Dundee City East

Shona Robison

4392

8.3%

2003

SNP Hold

Dundee City West

Joe Fitzpatrick

2113

4.3%

2007

SNP Hold

In a boon to the SNP we are projecting them to almost completely sweep North East Scotland, with the single exception of Aberdeenshire West. My feeling is that falling poll ratings for the SNP and Mike Rumbles maverick personality and style will keep him in the parliament. I will say, however, that this is undoubtedly one of the ballsiest calls I have made in this entire projection, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the SNP took all 10 seats here.

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

0

4

4

SNP

9

0

9

Conservatives

0

2

2

Lib. Dems.

1

0

1

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Richard Baker

2. Alex Johnstone

3. Jenna Mara

4. Lewis MacDonald

5. Nanette Milne

6. Lesley McMahon

7. Martin Ford

Our regional swing projection showed the Lib Dems securing an additional seat from the regional list. However my view is that the party will probably lose more votes than this and the Greens are well positioned to pick up votes by virtue of their top candidate: Martin Ford. Ford is a former Lib Dem councillor who defected to the Green Party. That said, on regional swing, this is VERY close, and the Lib Dems could still re-elect Alison McInnes. Additionally, I should note that if the SNP makes a clean sweep of the constituency seats, which is certainly in the realms of possibility, Ford will not be elected and McInnes will be elected in his place.

Overall changes then:

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

SNP

8

9

+1

Labour

3

4

+1

Conservatives

3

2

-1

Lib Dems

3

1

-2

Greens

0

1

+1

Big changes in the North East then as the Lib Dems lose two and the Tories lose one with the SNP, Labour and Greens all projected to pick up a seat. There is also the possibility that the SNP could pick up an additional seat with the likely losers being the Green Party, the Green seat here is very close, and I is not backed up by my model, but more by my suspicion of a stronger swing in the regional vote against the Lib Dems than uniform swing suggests.

South of Scotland

Originals: West of the region, East of the region, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Ayr

John Scott

4375

6.4%

2000

Con Hold

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Cathy Jamieson

4403

7.3%

1999

Lab Hold

Clydesdale

Karen Gillon

1079

1.9%

1999

SNP Gain

Dumfriesshire

Elaine Murray

-649

1.1%

1999

Lab Gain

East Lothian

Iain Gray

2109

3.4%

2007

Lab Hold

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

John Lamont

1514

2.7%

2007

Con Hold

Galloway & Dumfries West

Alex Fergusson

2504

3.9%

2003

Con Hold

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Willie Coffey

1342

2.1%

2007

SNP Hold

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Jeremy Purvis

-1201

1.9%

2003

SNP Hold

At the time of the original projections Labour were ahead in the polls and therefore we marked Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley as a ‘Too Close’, with the way the campaign has gone it should now be an easy SNP hold.

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

3

3

6

SNP

3

2

5

Conservatives

3

0

3

Lib. Dems.

0

1

1

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Claudia Beamish

2. Aileen Campbell

3. Graeme Pearson

4. Joan McAlpine

5. Jim Hume

6. Marie Rooney

7. Alis Ballance

Our model showed the SNP getting 3 regional seats and the Labour Party 2 originally, however it was quite close and feeling that Scottish nationalism does not run as strong in the South as in the North (for reasons that should be obvious) I overruled it slightly and gave the seat to Labour instead. I am prepared to be proven wrong, however, and to see the SNP get the seat instead of Labour. Our model also shows the Green and Lib Dem seats as very close here – a loss of 1% of the vote from our model would be enough to stop either getting their projected seats.

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

Labour

5

6

+1

SNP

5

5

0

Conservatives

4

3

-1

Lib Dems

2

1

-1

Greens

0

1

+1

Our overall projection shows a drop of one seat for both the Lib Dems and the Tories in South Scotland then, with the Greens and Labour benefitting.

West of Scotland

Originals: East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire, North Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and south Argyll and Bute, Regionals

Constituency

MSP

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

B-V.co.uk

Clydebank & Milngavie

Des McNulty

3158

5.4%

1999

Lab Hold

Cunninghame North

Kenneth Gibson

40

0.1%

2007

SNP Hold

Cunninghame South

Irene Oldfather

2160

4.7%

1999

Lab Hold

Dumbarton

Jackie Baillie

1587

2.7%

1999

SNP Gain

Eastwood

Kenneth MacIntosh

-3488

5.6%

1999

Con Hold

Greenock & Inverclyde

Duncan McNeil

4517

7.9%

1999

Lab Hold

Paisley

Wendy Alexander

3811

7.4%

1999

Lab Hold

Renfrewshire North & West

Trish Godman

3105

5.6%

8.9%

1999

Lab Hold

Renfrewshire South

Hugh Henry

5936

10.3%

1999

Lab Hold

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

David Whitton

3583

5.1%

2007

Lab Hold

In our original projection we had Eastwood as ‘too close’, we are now projecting a Conservative hold. We also had Cunninghame South as ‘Too Close’, we now have it as a Labour Hold.

Party

Const. Seats

Regional Members

Total Members

Labour

7

0

7

SNP

2

5

7

Conservatives

1

1

2

Lib. Dems.

0

0

0

Greens

0

1

1

Additional Members

1. Stewart Maxwell

2. Derek MacKay

3. Gil Paterson

4. Annabel Goldie

5. Fiona McLeod

6. Steen Parish

7. Stewart McMillan

Our projection shows the Green seat as being quite tight and it could be won by the Lib Dems if they out-perform uniform swing. If that happens the Lib Dems will re-elect Ross Finnie; their Shadow Health Secretary.

Party

Seats 2007

Seats 2011

Change

Labour

8

7

1

SNP

5

7

0

Conservatives

3

2

-1

Greens

0

1

1

Lib Dems

1

0

-1

Overall Projection

And now a fanfare please! For the Britain-Votes final Scottish projection of the 2011 election:

Party

2007 (actual)

2007 (Notional)

2011 Projection

Overall Change

Total

Total

Total

From actual

From notionals

SNP

47

46

55

+8

+9

Labour

46

45

46

0

+1

Conservatives

17

19

13

-4

-6

Lib Dems

16

17

7

-9

-10

Greens

2

1

7

+5

+6

Other

1

1

1

0

0

Some warnings first of all: there is a fair amount of opportunity for variance in these figures. The Greens and the Lib Dems, in particular, are fairly tight on gaining/losing seats in many regions. I have also addressed where I have strayed from our mathematical model in my workings above.

On these figures possible coalitions are SNP/Con (unlikely), SNP/LD/Green, my bet, however, would be that the SNP goes for another minority government. So that’s that then. Follow us on twitter, we’ll be tweeting throughout the night and probably into tomorrow, and we’ll soon know whether our projection is correct, or whether we are way off the mark!

1 comment:

  1. If the above translates accurately, then its telling & important. It may signal that the Scottish people are now moving further away from Westminster. Or it may merely signal that the people are disillusioned with Labour / Tories / L/D & are voting SNP in protest. Great survey thank you!

    ReplyDelete