Scotland Votes: Final Projection

If haven't seen our Wales projection and would like to see it, it is here.

And so onto our final Scotland projections. I shall be doing this region by region, I shall first be giving a final projection of what I think the result in each constituency seat will be (and there will be no ‘too closes’ in this one, I will be calling every seat) and then I shall be using a combination of those, recent polling and my own electoral knowledge and gut instinct to project a final slate of seats for each region. I’ll be going through the regions in alphabetical order. Once that is done I shall produce a table of what I think the final results will be. Here goes.

Central Scotland

Original posts: North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire and Falkirk, Regionals

Constituencies:

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Airdrie & Shotts	Karen Whitefield	633	1.4%	1999	Lab Hold
Coatbridge & Chryston	Elaine Smith	4340	9.2%	1999	Lab Hold
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	Cathy Craigie	2079	4%	1999	Lab Hold
East Kilbride	Andy Kerr	2108	3.4%	1999	Lab Hold
Falkirk East	Catty Peattie	1839	3.1%	1999	Lab Hold
Falkirk West	Michael Matheson	743	1.3%	2007	SNP Hold
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse	Tom McCabe	3623	6.7%	1999	Lab Hold
Motherwell & Wishaw	Jack McConnell	5974	11.4%	1999	Lab Hold
Uddingston & Bellshill	Michael McMahon	5584	10.5%	1999	Lab Hold

In our original projection we had Airdrie and Shotts and Falkirk East down as ‘too close’. Having talked with those on the ground my feeling is now that Labour will hold these two seats, though it will be close.

Regionals and Overall projection:

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	8	0	8
SNP	1	6	7
Conservatives	0	1	1
Lib. Dems.	0	0	0
Greens	0	0	0

Uniform swing leans towards these figures and I’m inclined to agree. On these figures we are projecting the election of the following MSPs:

Additional Members
1. Alex Neil	2. Jamie Hepburn
3. Linda Fabiani	4. Richard Lyle
5. Christina McKelvie	6. Margaret Mitchell
7. Angus MacDonald

Overall this gives us the following changes:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
Labour	8	8	0
SNP	6	7	+1
Conservatives	1	1	0
Lib Dems	1	0	-1
Greens	0	0	0

All fairly stable in Central Scotland then! The Lib Dems lose a seat, which is almost inevitable considering their poor 2007 result, and the SNP pick it up.

Glasgow

Original posts: Northern half, Southern Half, Regionals

Final constituency projections:

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Glasgow Anniesland	Bill Butler	5045	10.1%	2000	Lab Hold
Glasgow Cathcart	Charlie Gordon	1852	3.5%	2005	Lab Hold
Glasgow Kelvin	Pauline McNeill	1007	2.3%	1999	SNP Gain
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn	Patricia Ferguson	3478	8.6%	1999	Lab Hold
Glasgow Pollok	Johann Lamont	4555	9.9%	1999	Lab Hold
Glasgow Provan	Paul Martin	5560	14.2%	1999	Lab Hold
Glasgow Shettleston	Frank McAveety	4240	11.3%	1999	Lab Hold
Glasgow Southside	Nicola Sturgeon	-27	0.1%	2007	SNP Hold
Rutherglen	James Kelly	5947	10.8%	2007	Lab Hold

Our original seat projections for Glasgow took place at a time when the SNP lead in the polls was much closer. We originally projected Cathcart as too close, but as the SNP bounce seems to have receded I think its fair to call it as a Labour hold. Nonetheless we continue to project student seat Glasgow Kelvin for the SNP and for Nicola Sturgeon to hold her Glasgow Southside seat.

Final regional projection:

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	1	8
SNP	2	5	7
Conservatives	0	0	0
Lib. Dems.	0	0	0
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Humza Yousef	2. Bob Doris
3. Patrick Harvie	4. Sid Khan
5. James Dornan	6. Hanzala Malik
7. Bill Kidd

Overall that gives us a projection of:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
Labour	8	8	0
SNP	6	7	+1
Greens	0	1	+1
Conservatives	1	0	-1
Lib Dems	1	0	-1

We are projecting both the Lib Dems and the Tories to lose a seat. The Lib Dems due to their woes, the Tories due to a combination of a small shift downwards in their polling and recurrent problems with their candidates in Glasgow.

Highlands and Islands

Original posts: Islands, Highlands, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Argyll & Bute	Jim Mather	807	1.5%	2007	SNP Hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross	Jamie Stone	5550	4.3%	1999	SNP Gain
Inverness & Nairn	Fergus Ewing	4995	6.8%	1999	SNP Hold
Moray	Richard Lochhead	7286	13%	2006	SNP Hold
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	Alasdair Allan	687	2.6%	2007	SNP Hold
Orkney Islands	Liam McArthur	2476	14.4%	2007	LD Hold
Shetland Islands	Tavish Scott	4909	25.1%	1999	LD Hold
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch	John Farquahar Munro	2784	5.2%	1999	SNP Gain

While we originally projected Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch as ‘too close’ the shift in polling since this projection, the lack of any sort of incumbency advantage, and the retiring MSPs John Farquahar Munro’s seeming endorsement of Alex Salmond, all lead me to suggest that the SNP will sweep the Lib Dems Highlands stronghold where figures like Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander find their homes at Westminster. The two Islands seats are not impregnable either. Despite their huge majorities both island seats, particularly Shetland, have significant buzz about local independent candidates. Independent politics runs a long way in these areas and I am informed that on the Shetland the independent candidate Billy Fox has the biggest campaign. Tavish Scott is still the bookies favourite, but you can get a 6/4 on Billy Fox unseating the Scottish Lib Dem leader. If Scott is unseated, of course, it will be a massive blow to the party on what is not likely to be a good night, especially as there is no obvious successor waiting in the wings.

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	0	3	3
SNP	6	1	7
Conservatives	0	2	2
Lib. Dems.	2	0	2
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Rhoda Grant	2. Dave Stewart
3. Jamie McGrigor	4. Linda Stewart
5. Eleanor Scott	6. John Finnie
7. Mary Scanlon

Uniform swing on our projections would give the Lib Dems an extra regional seat. However my feeling is that the Lib Dems will lose more here than uniform swing would project and therefore the party will be reduced to its two constituency seats. Looking over the figures the SNP was theoretically best placed to pick up the final seat, however my feeling is that the momentum in the polls is against the SNP and that the Conservatives may be slightly underperforming so I have given the final seat to the Tories instead, as they were just behind the SNP. Labour could also, theoretically, pick up the seat quite easily as well.

Overall that gives us a projection of:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
SNP	6	7	+1
Labour	3	3	0
Lib Dems	4	2	-2
Conservatives	2	2	0
Greens	0	1	+1

Disaster for the Lib Dems as they lose two seats in one of their strongest heartlands, and the SNP and Greens pick them up overall.

Lothian

Original posts: Edinburgh, Other Constituencies, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required		First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Almond Valley	Angela Constance	4	0.1%		2007	SNP Hold
Edinburgh Central	Sarah Boyack	-719	1.3%		1999	Lab Gain
Edinburgh Eastern	Kenny MacAskill	-545	0.9%		2007	SNP Gain
Edinburgh Northern & Leith	Malcolm Chisholm	2204	3.7%	4.2%	2007	Lab Hold
Edinburgh Pentlands	David McLetchie	2742	4.4%	4.5%	2003	Con Hold
Edinburgh Southern	Mike Pringle	3955	6.2%		2003	LD Hold
Edinburgh Western	Margaret Smith	5759	8.6%		1999	LD Hold
Linlithgow	Mary Mulligan	294	0.5%		1999	SNP Gain
Midlothian North & Musselburgh	Rhona Brankin	1493	2.6%		1999	SNP Gain

I projected three seats as ‘too close’ in my original projection: Edinburgh Northern and Leith, Southern and Western. I now feel that the lower SNP polling of late, the incumbency advantage usually demonstrated by Lib Dems and Edinburgh’s more middle class populace will see the incumbents in these three seats hold on, though I think the two Lib Dem seats, in particular, are ones to really watch this evening.

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	2	3	5
SNP	4	2	6
Conservatives	1	0	1
Lib. Dems.	2	0	2
Greens	0	1	1
Margo MacDonald	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Kezia Dugdale	2. Alison Johnstone
3. Neil Findlay	4. Shirley-Ann Somerville
5. Margo MacDonald	6. Ann Henderson
7. George Kerevan

Overall:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
SNP	5	6	+1
Labour	4	5	+1
Lib Dems	3	2	-1
Conservatives	2	1	-1
Greens	1	1	0
Margo MacDonald	1	1	0

We project a seat loss for both the Lib Dems and the Tories then to the gain of the SNP and Labour. There is an interesting effect of the electoral system here however: if the Lib Dems lose one of the two constituency seats we are projecting them as holding very closely, the Conservatives will pick up a seat and re-elect Gavin Brown.

Mid Scotland and Fife

Original posts: Fife, Mid Scotland, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane	Keith Brown	762	1.4%	2007	SNP Hold
Cowdenbeath	Helen Eadie	3839	7.3%	1999	Lab Hold
Dunfermline	Jim Tolson	77	0.2%	2007	Lab Gain
Fife Mid & Glenrothes	Tricia Marwick	2283	4.6%	2007	SNP Hold
Fife North East	Iain Smith	4566	7.8%	1999	LD Hold
Kirkcaldy	Marilyn Livingstone	3354	5.9%	1999	Lab Hold
Perthshire North	John Swinney	6542	10.8%	2003	SNP Hold
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire	Roseanna Cunningham	1384	2.3%	1999	SNP Hold
Stirling	Bruce Crawford	-389	0.7%	2007	SNP Gain

I originally projected Dunfermline as ‘too close’. I have no idea what I was thinking at the time and was rightfully pilloried from all sides for my own silliness in making such a bad call – it’s a clear Labour Gain waiting to happen. I also marked Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane as ‘Too Close’, at the time the Labour party was still leading in the polls. It was always my instinct that the SNP would poll better later in the campaign and my gut was proven right as such we now have the SNP winning both seats. This leaves us with the following regionals:

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	3	2	5
SNP	5	2	7
Conservatives	0	2	2
Lib. Dems.	1	0	1
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Murdo Fraser	2. John Park
3. Annabelle Ewing	4. Elizabeth Smith
5. Claire Baker	6. Mark Ruskell
7. Keith Brown

Leaving us with changes of:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
SNP	6	7	+1
Labour	5	5	0
Conservatives	3	2	-1
Lib Dems	2	1	-1
Greens	0	1	+1

Our projection shows both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems losing a seat each, with the Greens and SNP picking them up.

North East Scotland

Originals: Rural seats, Urban Seats, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required		First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Aberdeen Central	Lewis MacDonald	-349	0.7%	1.7%	1999	SNP Hold
Aberdeen Doneside	Brian Adam	3551	6.6%		2003	SNP Hold
Aberdeen South & Kincardine North	Nicol Stephen	2071	3.7%		1999	SNP Gain
Aberdeenshire East	Alex Salmond	4535	7.1%		2007	SNP Hold
Aberdeenshire West	Mike Rumbles	3779	6.3%		1999	LD Hold
Angus North & Mearns		4916	10.5%		-	SNP Hold
Angus South	Andrew Welsh	6007	9.9%		1999	SNP Hold
Banffshire & Buchan Coast	Stewart Stevenson	12082	19.6%		2001	SNP Hold
Dundee City East	Shona Robison	4392	8.3%		2003	SNP Hold
Dundee City West	Joe Fitzpatrick	2113	4.3%		2007	SNP Hold

In a boon to the SNP we are projecting them to almost completely sweep North East Scotland, with the single exception of Aberdeenshire West. My feeling is that falling poll ratings for the SNP and Mike Rumbles maverick personality and style will keep him in the parliament. I will say, however, that this is undoubtedly one of the ballsiest calls I have made in this entire projection, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the SNP took all 10 seats here.

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	0	4	4
SNP	9	0	9
Conservatives	0	2	2
Lib. Dems.	1	0	1
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Richard Baker	2. Alex Johnstone
3. Jenna Mara	4. Lewis MacDonald
5. Nanette Milne	6. Lesley McMahon
7. Martin Ford

Our regional swing projection showed the Lib Dems securing an additional seat from the regional list. However my view is that the party will probably lose more votes than this and the Greens are well positioned to pick up votes by virtue of their top candidate: Martin Ford. Ford is a former Lib Dem councillor who defected to the Green Party. That said, on regional swing, this is VERY close, and the Lib Dems could still re-elect Alison McInnes. Additionally, I should note that if the SNP makes a clean sweep of the constituency seats, which is certainly in the realms of possibility, Ford will not be elected and McInnes will be elected in his place.

Overall changes then:

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
SNP	8	9	+1
Labour	3	4	+1
Conservatives	3	2	-1
Lib Dems	3	1	-2
Greens	0	1	+1

Big changes in the North East then as the Lib Dems lose two and the Tories lose one with the SNP, Labour and Greens all projected to pick up a seat. There is also the possibility that the SNP could pick up an additional seat with the likely losers being the Green Party, the Green seat here is very close, and I is not backed up by my model, but more by my suspicion of a stronger swing in the regional vote against the Lib Dems than uniform swing suggests.

South of Scotland

Originals: West of the region, East of the region, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required	First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Ayr	John Scott	4375	6.4%	2000	Con Hold
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	Cathy Jamieson	4403	7.3%	1999	Lab Hold
Clydesdale	Karen Gillon	1079	1.9%	1999	SNP Gain
Dumfriesshire	Elaine Murray	-649	1.1%	1999	Lab Gain
East Lothian	Iain Gray	2109	3.4%	2007	Lab Hold
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire	John Lamont	1514	2.7%	2007	Con Hold
Galloway & Dumfries West	Alex Fergusson	2504	3.9%	2003	Con Hold
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley	Willie Coffey	1342	2.1%	2007	SNP Hold
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale	Jeremy Purvis	-1201	1.9%	2003	SNP Hold

At the time of the original projections Labour were ahead in the polls and therefore we marked Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley as a ‘Too Close’, with the way the campaign has gone it should now be an easy SNP hold.

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	3	3	6
SNP	3	2	5
Conservatives	3	0	3
Lib. Dems.	0	1	1
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Claudia Beamish	2. Aileen Campbell
3. Graeme Pearson	4. Joan McAlpine
5. Jim Hume	6. Marie Rooney
7. Alis Ballance

Our model showed the SNP getting 3 regional seats and the Labour Party 2 originally, however it was quite close and feeling that Scottish nationalism does not run as strong in the South as in the North (for reasons that should be obvious) I overruled it slightly and gave the seat to Labour instead. I am prepared to be proven wrong, however, and to see the SNP get the seat instead of Labour. Our model also shows the Green and Lib Dem seats as very close here – a loss of 1% of the vote from our model would be enough to stop either getting their projected seats.

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
Labour	5	6	+1
SNP	5	5	0
Conservatives	4	3	-1
Lib Dems	2	1	-1
Greens	0	1	+1

Our overall projection shows a drop of one seat for both the Lib Dems and the Tories in South Scotland then, with the Greens and Labour benefitting.

West of Scotland

Originals: East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire, North Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and south Argyll and Bute, Regionals

Constituency	MSP	Majority	Swing Required		First Elected	B-V.co.uk
Clydebank & Milngavie	Des McNulty	3158	5.4%		1999	Lab Hold
Cunninghame North	Kenneth Gibson	40	0.1%		2007	SNP Hold
Cunninghame South	Irene Oldfather	2160	4.7%		1999	Lab Hold
Dumbarton	Jackie Baillie	1587	2.7%		1999	SNP Gain
Eastwood	Kenneth MacIntosh	-3488	5.6%		1999	Con Hold
Greenock & Inverclyde	Duncan McNeil	4517	7.9%		1999	Lab Hold
Paisley	Wendy Alexander	3811	7.4%		1999	Lab Hold
Renfrewshire North & West	Trish Godman	3105	5.6%	8.9%	1999	Lab Hold
Renfrewshire South	Hugh Henry	5936	10.3%		1999	Lab Hold
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	David Whitton	3583	5.1%		2007	Lab Hold

In our original projection we had Eastwood as ‘too close’, we are now projecting a Conservative hold. We also had Cunninghame South as ‘Too Close’, we now have it as a Labour Hold.

Party	Const. Seats	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	0	7
SNP	2	5	7
Conservatives	1	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	0	0
Greens	0	1	1

Additional Members
1. Stewart Maxwell	2. Derek MacKay
3. Gil Paterson	4. Annabel Goldie
5. Fiona McLeod	6. Steen Parish
7. Stewart McMillan

Our projection shows the Green seat as being quite tight and it could be won by the Lib Dems if they out-perform uniform swing. If that happens the Lib Dems will re-elect Ross Finnie; their Shadow Health Secretary.

Party	Seats 2007	Seats 2011	Change
Labour	8	7	1
SNP	5	7	0
Conservatives	3	2	-1
Greens	0	1	1
Lib Dems	1	0	-1

Overall Projection

And now a fanfare please! For the Britain-Votes final Scottish projection of the 2011 election:

Party	2007 (actual)	2007 (Notional)	2011 Projection	Overall Change
	Total	Total	Total	From actual	From notionals
SNP	47	46	55	+8	+9
Labour	46	45	46	0	+1
Conservatives	17	19	13	-4	-6
Lib Dems	16	17	7	-9	-10
Greens	2	1	7	+5	+6
Other	1	1	1	0	0

Some warnings first of all: there is a fair amount of opportunity for variance in these figures. The Greens and the Lib Dems, in particular, are fairly tight on gaining/losing seats in many regions. I have also addressed where I have strayed from our mathematical model in my workings above.

On these figures possible coalitions are SNP/Con (unlikely), SNP/LD/Green, my bet, however, would be that the SNP goes for another minority government. So that’s that then. Follow us on twitter, we’ll be tweeting throughout the night and probably into tomorrow, and we’ll soon know whether our projection is correct, or whether we are way off the mark!