Thursday, 5 May 2011

United Kingdom Election Forecast 2011 : Alternative Vote Referendum

Last, but by no means least, comes the referendum on the alternative vote. The first UK wide referendum since the EEC membership referendum in 1975, this will affect the whole way the UK works whatever happens. If it passes, then every MP in the new shrunken House of Commons at the next election will have a minimum of 50% of the vote and if it fails, then could we have a general election before the end of the year?

These calculations are based on the party breakdown of YES and NO camps as published by Communicate Research (who I would like to put on the record should be commended for their analysis of the voting patterns)

Scotland: Yes 999,761 votes (47.83%) No 1,090,289 votes (52.17%)
Wales: Yes 390,588 votes (39.46%) No 599,298 votes (60.54%)
Northern Ireland: Yes 240,000 votes (40%) No 460,000 votes (60%)
England: Yes 4,883,264 votes (42.5%) No 6,606,769 votes (57.5%%)
Overall Result: Yes 6,513,613 votes (42.66%) No 8,756,356 votes (57.34%)

As you can see, my forecast is calling for a NO vote (57 - 43), a little better than the polls in the last few days have been calling for.

So there are all my forecasts, how many of them will come true I have simply no idea, but stick with Britain Votes over the next few days where we will be crunching the numbers like pros (even if we just do it for the fun of it) and don't forget starting this evening at 2200 BST possibly one of the largest tweeting operations of all time. I will be looking at Wales, Tom and Chris will be dividing their attention between Scotland and England (although I might pop up some interesting statements as the four councils I know about declare) and then tomorrow AV referendum 2011 with LIVE tweets from me at the Ceredigion counting centre (where I will be trying to keep an eye on the national picture and picking up any gossip)


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