So, our final projection, then, is for the regional seats in Central Scotland. Here’s the current slate of MSPs in Central Scotland, on the notional figures:
| Party | Const. Seats | Region Votes | Region Votes % | Add. Members | Total Members |
| Labour | 8 | 98889 | 39.9% | 0 | 8 |
| SNP | 1 | 76316 | 30.8% | 5 | 6 |
| Conservative | 0 | 20379 | 8.2% | 1 | 1 |
| Lib. Dem. | 0 | 12847 | 5.2% | 1 | 1 |
| Green | 0 | 6286 | 2.5% | 0 | 0 |
| Additional Members | ||
| 1. Alex Neil | 2. Linda Fabiani | |
| 3. Margaret Mitchell | 4. Jamie Hepburn | |
| 5. Christina McKelvie | 6. Hugh O'Donnell | |
| 7. John Wilson | | |
I should firstly note that Hugh O’Donnell is standing again but not as a Lib Dem, he is standing as an independent due to the ‘betrayal’ of the Westminster coalition. I will be completely honest: I do not think he has any chance of being elected. O’Donnell is not exactly a household name and does not appear to have any personal following. His primary source of votes is also disaffected Lib Dems, but as only 5.2% of people voted Lib Dem here in 2007, this isn’t exactly a big group in Central Scotland! If anything O’Donnell will probably drag a few votes away from the Lib Dems, but the party was only just above the effective threshold to get a seat in 2007 as it was. Considering recent events I can already say with nigh certainty that the party will not have a seat in Scotland on Friday.
In our projections for the constituency seats we identified two seats as ‘too close’: Airdrie and Shotts and Falkirk East. We therefore have three scenarios, depending on whether Labour and the SNP split these seats 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. We’ll start with Labour holding the seats and move through to the SNP gaining them.
Scenario 1: Labour holds Falkirk East and Airdrie and Shotts
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 8 | 39.9 | 43.2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| SNP | 1 | 30.8 | 38.3 | 6 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In this scenario the first six seats all go to the SNP. They would elect Alex Neil, the Minister for Housing and Communities, they would re-elect Jamie Hepburn next, he would then be followed by the re-election of Linda Fabiani. The SNP would then elect Richard Lyle, leader of their North Lanarkshire council group, and then re-elect Christina McElvie. McElvie would then be followed by Angus MacDonald, a Falkirk councillor. The final seat would then be picked by the Conservatives, who would re-elect Margaret Mitchell, a former Justice spokesperson for the party.
That seat would be in danger however, particularly from the Greens who would only have to garner more votes than the Tories in order to win the seat instead. They would elect Kirsten Robb, a local community activist. If both the Greens and the Conservatives slipped much below 5% (unlikely) the SNP would re-elect John Wilson. In order for Labour to get a regional seat under this scenario they would need to gain way more than 10% of the vote, it’s not really in the realms of likelihood. If somehow they pulled it off, they would elect Siobhan McMahon, an activist who works in the Labour office at Holyrood.
The Lib Dems could also, theoretically, elect John Love, a member of North Lanarkshire council, if they secured more votes than the Tories, while I think a figure of 0.9% is perhaps a touch low for the party the chances of surpassing the Tories are next to 0.
Scenario 2: Labour holds either Falkirk East or Airdrie and Shotts, the SNP takes the other seat
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 7 | 39.9 | 43.2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| SNP | 2 | 30.8 | 38.3 | 5 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Seat 1: Alex Neil/Jamie Hepburn (SNP – Neil is standing in Airdrie and Shotts) Seat 2: Jamie Hepburn/Linda Fabiani (SNP) Seat 3: Linda Fabiani/Richard Lyle (SNP) Seat 4: Richard Lyle/Christina McElvie (SNP) Seat 5: Christina McElvie/Angus MacDonald (SNP – MacDonald is standing in Falkirk East) Seat 6: Siobhan McMahon (Labour) Seat 7: Margaret Mitchell (Conservatives)
Same swings apply as in Scenario 1, with the exception that if Labour were to elect a second regional MSP (highly unlikely) they would elect Mark Griffin, a councillor in North Lanarkshire.
Scenario 3: The SNP gains both Falkirk East and Airdrie and Shotts from Labour
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 6 | 39.9 | 43.2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| SNP | 3 | 30.8 | 38.3 | 4 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 0 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Seat 1: Jamie Hepburn (SNP) Seat 2: Linda Fabiani (SNP) Seat 3: Richard Lyle (SNP) Seat 4: Siobhan McMahon (Labour) Seat 5: Christina McElvie (SNP) Seat 6: Mark Griffin (Lab) Seat 7: Margaret Mitchell (Conservative)
All the same swings here too.
Overall Summary
Basically the same figures throughout then. Labour and the Tories remains stable at 8 seats and one seat, the SNP gain a seat at 7 and the Lib Dems lose their sole seat. No real surprises. The Greens are polling really well on the eve of the election and if their momentum continues they could gain a seat as well.
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