What a difference a week can make in Wales

Just a few days to go now, and we have a new poll out which suggests that Labour’s dominance is starting to wane a little.

Constituency (and change on 2007): Labour 45% (+13%) Conservatives 21% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 18% (-4%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-7%) Others 8% (-1%)
Regional (and change on 2007): Labour 41% (+11%) Conservatives 20% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 18% (-3%) Liberal Democrats 7% (-5%) Others 14% (-2%)
Regional Others Breakdown (and change on 2007): United Kingdom Independence Party 7% (+3%) Greens 4% (+1%) Others 3% (-2%)
Constituency Swing: 7% from Conservative to Labour, 9% from Plaid Cymru to Labour
Regional Swing: 6% from Conservative to Labour, 7% from Plaid Cymru to Labour

Very little change on the surface, but a few interesting trends none the less (especially with the too close to call seats)

Labour wins too close to call: Cardiff Central (1.09% over Lib Dems), Cardiff North (1.50% over Con), Preseli Pembroke (2.85% over Con)

Conservative wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (0.85% over Lib Dem)
Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Aberconwy (0.29% over Lab), Arfon (4.56% over Lab)

Labour’s dominance does indeed to be waining as Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Preseli Pembroke, Arfon, Aberconwy, Carmarthen East and Ynys Môn now all appear to be moving away from Labour (with Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnorshire trending Conservative), so with this latest piece of information on board, what do I think now?

Labour wins too close to call: Cardiff Central (Lib Dem HOLD), Cardiff North (Conservative HOLD), Preseli Pembroke (Conservative HOLD)

Conservative wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (Lib Dem HOLD, too close to call)
Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Aberconwy (Plaid Cymru HOLD, too close to call), Arfon (Plaid HOLD)

Which gives us a constituency tally of:

Labour 27 (+3)

Plaid Cymru 6 (-1)
Conservatives 4 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 2 (-1)

Which brings us to the regional list allocations. As we know the general rule of thumb is “If you do brilliantly well in the constituencies, expect to be hammered in the regional list” and sure enough Labour having gained eight seats on the constituency vote find it very hard indeed to win regional list seats

Regional List Allocations:

South Wales Central
Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Leanne Wood AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the second seat (Andrew Davies AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (David Melding AM re-elected)
Labour win the fourth seat (Jayne Brencher elected)

Mid and West Wales

Labour win the first seat (Joyce Watson AM re-elected)
Labour win the second seat (Mary Evans elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (Nick Bourne AM re-elected)
UKIP win the fourth seat (Christine Williams elected)

North Wales

Conservatives win the first seat (Mark Isherwood AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the second seat (Antoinette Sandbach elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (Janet Haworth elected)
UKIP win the fourth seat (Nathan Gill elected)

South Wales East

Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Jocelyn Davies AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the second seat (William Graham AM re-elected)
UKIP win the third seat (David Rowlands elected)
Liberal Democrats win the fourth seat (Veronica German AM re-elected)

South Wales West

Conservatives win the second seat (Suzy Davies elected)
Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Bethan Jenkins AM re-elected)
Plaid Cymru win the third seat (Dai Lloyd AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the fourth seat (Henry Davies elected)
 
Forecast Composition of the National Assembly:
Constituencies: Labour 27 Plaid Cymru 6 Conservatives 4 Liberal Democrats 2
Regional List: Conservatives 9 Plaid Cymru 4 Liberal Democrats 1 Labour 3 United Kingdom Independence Party 3
Overall Totals: Labour 30 Conservatives 13 Plaid Cymru 10 Liberal Democrats 3 United Kingdom Independence Party 3