Like the rest of the Lothian region, the regionals are very oddball. Here’s the current slate of regional MSPs, by the notional figures:
| Party | Const. Seats | Region Votes | Region Votes % | Add. Members | Total Members |
| SNP | 1 | 75595 | 26.5% | 4 | 5 |
| Labour | 4 | 74983 | 26.2% | 0 | 4 |
| Conservative | 1 | 37695 | 13.2% | 1 | 2 |
| Lib. Dem. | 3 | 36601 | 12.8% | 0 | 3 |
| Green | 0 | 20125 | 7.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Margo MacDonald (IND) | 0 | 19256 | 6.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Additional Members | |
| 1. Fiona Hyslop | 2. |
| 3. | 4. Margo MacDonald |
| 5. | 6. Gavin Brown |
| 7. | George Foulkes |
I have placed the vote figures for Margo MacDonald in italics because in the notional figures she is included in ‘others’. Her vote figures are thus those from the roughly equivalent Lothians region at the last election. Since that election a little of the region has been shifted into the South of Scotland and a little has been shifted out (all in all it comes to a less than 2% change both ways. Margo’s figure will have dropped, notionally, due to the boundary changes, but has probably only changed by a few hundred votes at most).
For what it’s worth Margo MacDonald is a Scotland’s sole independent MSP. She is a former member of the SNP. She is married to Jim Sillars, who was once one of the party’s big beasts. A highly left-wing fundamentalist figure Sillars and MacDonald were wound up in a series of internal conflicts in the party’s history, most notable they were part of the ’79 group’ of left-wing members in the 1980s. Despite this she was elected as a regional MSP in 1999 for the SNP, but her increasing distance from the leadership saw her placed fifth on the party’s list in 2003. Angered by this she left the party and ran as an independent, securing 10.2% of the vote, enough to guarantee re-election. She lost 3.5%, but was still elected with 6.7% in 2007. Despite her Parkinson’s Margo MacDonald has resolutely decided to challenge for re-election. Polling for someone like Margo MacDonald is next to impossible, and so there is no reliable data in any of the opinion polls. It would be churlish, however, to pretend she simply did not exist. For the purposes of our analysis, therefore, we shall be assuming that Margo MacDonald will remain static at 6.7% of the vote. However, in each scenario I shall outline about how much of the vote she would need to lose to fail in her bid for re-election and, additionally, which party most stands to benefit.
In my constituency posts I projected five seats to change hands and three seats as too close to call. Indeed, there was only one seat I thought would likely not change hands (Edinburgh Pentlands) and even that I wasn’t certain about!. The seats too close to call are Edinburgh North and Leith, which is between the SNP and Labour, Edinburgh Southern, which is between the Lib Dems and Labour, and Edinburgh Western, which is between the SNP and Lib Dems. Scenarios will start with those which favour the incumbents, which are also those scenarios best for the Lib Dems and worst for the SNP, and work their way through to those best for the challengers, and thus worst for the Lib Dems and best for the SNP.
Projected regional figures are based upon a uniform swing based on an average of the latest Ipsos-MORI and YouGov polls.
Scenario 1: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Southern and Western, Labour holds Northern and Leith
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 2 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 3 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 4 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 2 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 2 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
In this scenario the Labour Party gets the first seat, which goes to their number 2 candidate, Kezia Dugdale a prominent Labour activist who has also worked on many student unions. The second seat would go to the Green’s top candidate, Alison Johnstone, who is leader of the Green group on Edinburgh city council. She would be followed by Labour’s Neil Findlay, a West Lothian councillor, and the SNP’s Shirley-Anne Somerville, their candidate in Edinburgh Northern and Leith. Margo MacDonald would get seat number 5, and she would then be followed by Labour’s Ann Henderson, who has worked in a variety of NGOs, most recently UNIFEM (the UN’s development fund for women). The final seat would then go to the SNP and their candidate, who would be George Kerevan, who was Associate Editor of the Scotsman newspaper from 2000 until 2009.
With the last seat in the hands of the SNP, a swing of less than 0.5% to the Tories would re-elect Gavin Brown in Kerevan’s place. A swing of 1% from the SNP to the Greens would elect their second candidate, Steve Burgess, an environmental researcher and a local councillor. A swing of 1.5% from the SNP to Labour would elect Jalal Chaudry, the Scottish Labour Party’s treasurer.
The Lib Dems can basically forget about electing their number 2 candidate, Alex Cole-Hamilton, their candidate for Edinburgh Central (which they notionally ‘hold’, but which we have projected as a Labour lean), under this scenario.
To lose her seat Margo MacDonald would need to lose about 2% of the vote, depending on who the votes swing behind. The Tories are best placed to pick up the seat, likely Gavin Brown would get it, though Labour’s Chaudry, the Green’s Burgess and the SNP’s Alex Orr, a communications consultant, could pick up the seat.
Scenario 2: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Southern and Western, SNP gains Northern and Leith from Labour.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 1 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 5 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 1 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 2 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seat 1: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 2: Alison Johnstone (Green) Seat 3: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 4: George Kerevan (SNP) Seat 5: Margo MacDonald (independent) Seat 6: Ann Henderson (Labour) Seat 7: Alex Orr (SNP)
All swings from the prior scenario and the statements about MacDonald all apply again here.
Scenario 3: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Western, Labour holds Northern and Leith, Labour gains Edinburgh Southern from the Lib Dems
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 3 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 2 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 4 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 2 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seat 1: Alison Johnstone (Green) Seat 2: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 3: Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP) Seat 4: Margo MacDonald (Independent) Seat 5: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 6: George Kerevan (SNP) Seat 7: Gavin Browne (Conservative)
The loss of a Lib Dem constituency seat essentially reduces the effective threshold for representation as the Lib Dems were, strictly speaking, over-represented on a proportional basis, as such Gavin Browne is elected in the last seat. Under this scenario Labour is best placed to beat Browne out. Labour would need to take just 1% from the Conservatives to elect Ann Henderson in Browne’s place. The Green’s could also beat out Browne fairly easily and elect Steve Burgess. In this case the competition is to get more votes than the Tories do, which is quite possible. For the Lib Dems to Alex Cole-Hamilton they would also need to beat the Tories, which is slightly less likely. A swing of 1% Tory to SNP would elect Alex Orr.
Once again MacDonald would need to lose about 2% to be unseated. Labour’s Ann Henderson would be best placed to replace her, though once again it is tight and the SNP’s Alex Orr, and the Green’s Steve Burgess both stand a chance too.
Scenario 4: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Western, Labour gains Edinburgh Southern from the Lib Dems, SNP gains Northern and Leith from Labour
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 2 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 3 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 5 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 1 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seat 1: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 2: Alison Johnstone (Greens) Seat 3: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 4: Margo MacDonald (Independent) Seat 5: Ann Henderson (Labour) Seat 6: George Kerevan (SNP) Seat 7: Gavin Browne (Conservative)
All the same swings and scenarios apply from the previous scenario with the exception that if Labour gains an additional seat at the Conservative’s expense they will elect Jalal Chaudry.
Scenario 5: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Southern, Labour holds Northern and Leith, SNP gains Edinburgh Western from the Lib Dems
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 2 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 3 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 5 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 1 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seat 1: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 2: Alison Johnstone (Greens) Seat 3: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 4: Margo MacDonald (Independent) Seat 5: Ann Henderson (Labour) Seat 6: George Kerevan (SNP) Seat 7: Gavin Brown (Conservatives)
Essentially exactly the same as scenario 4.
Scenario 6: Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Southern, SNP gains Edinburgh Western from the Lib Dems and Northern and Leith from Labour
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 1 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 6 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 0 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seat 1: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 2: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 3: Alison Johnstone (Greens) Seat 4: Ann Henderson (Labour) Seat 5: Margo MacDonald (Independent) Seat 6: Jalal Chaudry (Labour) Seat 7: Gavin Browne (Conservatives)
Same swings that we are now used to, with the single exception that if Labour got another seat it would go to Simon MacFadyen.
Scenario 7: Labour gains Edinburgh Western from the Lib Dems, SNP gains Edinburgh Southern from the Lib Dems and Northern and Leith from Labour
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Changes (from notionals) |
| Labour | 2 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 3 | 5 | +1 |
| SNP | 6 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 0 | 6 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lib. Dems. | 0 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
| Greens | 0 | 7 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Margo MacDonald | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Seats: Kezia Dugdale (Labour) Seat 2: Alison Johnstone (Greens) Seat 3: Margaret Smith (Lib Dems) Seat 4: Neil Findlay (Labour) Seat 5: Margo MacDonald (Independent) Seat 6: Ann Henderson
The Lib Dems finally get a regional seat when they are reduced to 0 constituency MSPs, fortunately for the Lib Dems Education and Young People spokesperson, Margaret Smith, she is number one on the Lib Dem list and is re-elected as a regional MSP in this scenario.
Overall Summary
Good news for the SNP and Labour, all our projections show them both gaining a seat; horrendous news for the Lib Dems. The party is currently over-represented in the region due to its constituency seats (a facet of the AMS system Scotland uses). The Lib Dems should really not worry about regional seats and put full power into holding their constituency seats in the region, if they hold both the two seats they can hold they will continue to be over-represented.
The Conservatives are on dangerous ground on our projections, but as I always say, Scottish polls have a history of underestimating the party, though if they are beat into fourth by the Greens they are likely to lose their regional seat. The Greens are well placed to do just that. It is as close to a sure thing as you can get that Alison Johnstone will be elected, all our projections show her taking one of the top seats. They will also elect a second MSP if they beat out the Tories, and the Lib Dems to third place on the regional vote. The Greens are strong in Edinburgh and may get a boost beyond the uniform swing due to the local populace being the sort of educated left-leaning voters who vote Green on the one hand, and because they are well placed to pick up disaffected Lib Dems.
There is a very close race here for the final seat and depending on the constituencies it really could come down to a very small number of votes between the parties.
As for Margo MacDonald, getting a read on her support is, as I said, difficult. The genuine expectation amongst those in the know appears to be that MacDonald will hold her seat, a view with which I basically agree.
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