Thursday, 5 May 2011

United Kingdom Election Forecast 2011 : Scotland

Tom has offered his opinion on the elections being held today, therefore I would like to offer my opinions as well (based on the polls during the campaign and my own personal opinion)

Scotland


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Name of seat
2007
2011
Status
Aberdeen Central
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North
Lib Dem
SNP

GAIN

Aberdeen, Donside
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeenshire East
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeenshire West
Lib Dem
SNP
GAIN
Airdrie and Shotts
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Almond Valley
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Angus North and Mearns
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Angus South
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Argyll and Bute
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Ayr
Con
SNP

GAIN

Banffshire and Buchan Coast
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Lib Dem
SNP

GAIN

Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Clydebank and Milngavie
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Clydesdale
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Coatbridge and Chryston
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Cowdenbeath
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Cunninghame North
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Cunninghame South
Lab

Lab

HOLD
Dumbarton
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Dumfriesshire
Con

Lab

GAIN
Dundee City East
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Dundee City West
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Dunfermline
Lib Dem
Lab
GAIN
East Kilbride
Lab

Lab

HOLD
East Lothian
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Eastwood
Con
Lab

GAIN

Edinburgh Central
Lib Dem
Lab
GAIN
Edinburgh Eastern
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Edinburgh Southern
Lib Dem
Lab
GAIN
Edinburgh Western
Lib Dem
SNP
GAIN
Edinburgh, Pentlands
Con
SNP
GAIN
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
Con
Con
HOLD
Falkirk East
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Falkirk West
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Fife Mid and Glenrothes
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Fife North East
Lib Dem
SNP
GAIN
Galloway and Dumfries West
Con
SNP
GAIN
Glasgow, Anniesland
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Cathcart
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Kelvin
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Maryhill and Springburn
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Pollock
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Provan
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Shettleston
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Glasgow, Southside
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Greenock and Inverclyde
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Inverness and Nairn
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Kirkcaldy
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Linlithgow
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Moray
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Motherwell and Wishaw
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Orkney Islands
Lib Dem
Lib Dem
HOLD
Paisley
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Perthshire North
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Perthshire South and Kinrossshire
SNP
SNP
HOLD
Renfrewshire North and West
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Renfrewshire South
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Rutherglen
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Shetland Islands
Lib Dem
Lib Dem
HOLD
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Lib Dem
SNP
GAIN
Stirling
Lab
SNP
GAIN
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Lab
Lab
HOLD
Uddingston and Bellshill
Lab
Lab
HOLD

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Region
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
SNP
Green
Others
Central
1
1

5


Glasgow
1


5
1

Highlands
2
3

1
1

Lothians
2
2
1

2

Mid and Fife
2
2
1
1
1

North East
2
4
1



South
2
3
1
1


West
2


5


Constituencies
1 (-5)
33 (-2)
2 (-9)
37 (+16)
0 (n/c)
0 (n/c)
Regionals
14 (+1)
15 (+5)
4 (-2)
18 (-7)
5 (+4)
0 (-1)
Overall
15 (-4)
48 (+3)
6 (-11)
55 (+9)
5 (+4)
0 (-1)

My feelings are that Alex Salmond will remain as First Minister of Scotland by entering into a formal coalition with the Greens and seeking Liberal Democrat support on budgets. Whether this will lead to another independence referendum during this term remains to be seen.

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