I am of the opinion that the Liberal Democrats will hold Cardiff Central (although it could well go to recounts) and Brecon and Radnorshire but lose Montgomeryshire to the Conservatives (with the caveat of recounts as well). Labour will pick up Clwyd West, Carmarthen West, Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent (but miss out on Cardiff North).
| Region | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Plaid | UKIP | Others |
| Central | 2 | 1 | | 1 | | |
| Mid and West | | 2 | | 1 | 1 | |
| North | 3 | | | | 1 | |
| South East | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| South West | 2 | | | 2 | | |
| Constituencies | 5 (n/c) | 28 (+4) | 2 (-1) | 6 (-1) | 0 (n/c) | 0 (-1) |
| Regionals | 8 (+1) | 3 (+1) | 1 (-2) | 5 (-3) | 3 (+3) | 0 (n/c) |
| Overall | 13 (+1) | 31 (+5) | 3 (-3) | 11 (-4) | 3 (+3) | 0 (-1) |
As a result Carwyn Jones will be re-elected as First Minister and following statements during the campaign that 31 would be a majority, I am of the opinion that Ieuan Wyn Jones will lose his status as Deputy First Minister.
I am surprised that you predict the conservatives will win three north wales regional seats. The maths just do not stack up to give that result.
ReplyDeleteI really think your map and your predictions are extremely speculative, particularly in North Wales. What evidence have you for predicting Clwyd West may fall to Labour?
ReplyDelete