Thursday 5 May 2011

United Kingdom Election Forecast 2011 : Wales

As the formatting on my Wales table seems to have gone a little odd, here's my Welsh forecast in map form


I am of the opinion that the Liberal Democrats will hold Cardiff Central (although it could well go to recounts) and Brecon and Radnorshire but lose Montgomeryshire to the Conservatives (with the caveat of recounts as well). Labour will pick up Clwyd West, Carmarthen West, Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent (but miss out on Cardiff North).

Region
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
Plaid
UKIP
Others
Central
2
1

1


Mid and West

2

1
1

North
3



1

South East
1

1
1
1

South West
2


2


Constituencies
5 (n/c)
28 (+4)
2 (-1)
6 (-1)
0 (n/c)
0 (-1)
Regionals
8 (+1)
3 (+1)
1 (-2)
5 (-3)
3 (+3)
0 (n/c)
Overall
13 (+1)
31 (+5)
3 (-3)
11 (-4)
3 (+3)
0 (-1)
As a result Carwyn Jones will be re-elected as First Minister and following statements during the campaign that 31 would be a majority, I am of the opinion that Ieuan Wyn Jones will lose his status as Deputy First Minister.

2 comments:

  1. I am surprised that you predict the conservatives will win three north wales regional seats. The maths just do not stack up to give that result.

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  2. I really think your map and your predictions are extremely speculative, particularly in North Wales. What evidence have you for predicting Clwyd West may fall to Labour?

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