Thursday 5 May 2011

United Kingdom Election Forecast 2011 : Northern Ireland

It could be say that trying to forecast Northern Ireland is akin to trying to figure out the prospects of a White Christmas for the Isle of Wight in the middle of June (i.e not the easiest thing in the world) and although no polls have been published for the Northern Ireland Assembly, the elections there do seem to follow the general pattern of Westminster elections, therefore I believe the votes cast in the elections will be:


UUP
DUP
SDLP
SF
All
Green
Ind
Others
Votes
16%
23%
13%
28%
7%
3%
2%
8%
Seats
19 (+1)
31 (-5)
16 (0)
31 (+3)
8 (+1)
1 (0)
1 (0)
1 (0)

I therefore believe that Sinn Fein will be awarded the First Minister’s position (using the D’Hondt formula to allocate ministries) with the DUP awarded the Deputy First Minister’s position. Using that formula the various parties will be awarded the following number of ministries:

Ulster Unionists: 2 ministries
Democratic Unionists: Deputy First Minister and 2 ministries
Social Democratic and Labour Party: 2 ministries
Sinn Fein: First Minister and 2 ministries
Alliance: Although using the D'Hondt formula, Alliance would not be awarded any ministries, I am of the opinion that David Ford (All, Antrim South) will be re-nominated as Justice Minister to ensure a cross community approach

3 comments:

  1. There are 10 Departments under d'Hondt, not 8. On those numbers the DUP and SF would get 3 each.

    Also it is HIGHLY unlikely that SF will pick up more than the number of seats they gave now. They will be lucky to pick up in East Antrim the seat they will lose in Lagan Valley due to boundary changes. I truly hope the UUP pick up an extra seat, but if they only lose a net of one or two they'll be happy.

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  2. Harry - it's the detail of the last seats in the STV constituencies that is important. Not much happenibg there for SF - perhaps FST from SDLP but nowt else really.

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  3. Thank you Michael, I assumed there were 10 departments from the reading of the list of Ministers on the Northern Ireland Assembly website.

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