Part 1, featuring the Islands seats can be found here, and Part 2, featuring the Highlands seats can be found here.
So having done the constituency seats, let’s take a look at the regional seats. Here is the notional result in the region from 2007:
| Party | Const. Seats | Region Votes | Region Votes % | Add. Members | Total Members |
| SNP | 4 | 63125 | 34.4% | 2 | 6 |
| Lib. Dem. | 4 | 36993 | 20.2% | 0 | 4 |
| Labour | 0 | 32410 | 17.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Conservative | 0 | 22811 | 12.4% | 2 | 2 |
| Green | 0 | 8489 | 4.6% | 0 | 0 |
And the current assignment of regional MSPs:
| Additional Members | |
|
| 2. Mary Scanlon |
| 3. Rhoda Grant | 4. Rob Gibson |
| 5. Jamie McGrigor | 6. Dave Stewart |
| 7. David Thompson | |
In the constituency results I identified four seats that might swing to one party or the other. I described Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch as ‘too close’ between SNP and the Lib Dems, whereas I identified Argyll and Bute as a ‘SNP lean’ that might be won by the Lib Dems and Na h-Eileanan An Iar as ‘too close’ between Labour and the SNP. So there are basically eight scenarios depending on whether the SNP and Lib Dems take 0-3 of the seats that could swing between them each, and depending on whether Labour take Na h-Eileanan An Iar. With all that, let’s get started.
Firstly, a quick note on methodology. In order to estimate the swing in the regional vote I have averaged the last polls released by YouGov, ICM and Ipsos-MORI. There are, frankly, reasons to doubt all three polls, and I have dismissed recent polls by TNS-BMRB and Progressive Scottish Opinion because the former has a poor record and the latter is unknown to me. Of course, all the usual warnings about polling apply. Anyway, I’m going to go through the scenarios from the worst for the SNP to the best for the party.
Scenario 1: Lib Dems win five constituency seats, Labour take Na h-Eileanan Iar.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 1 | 18 | 25.1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| SNP | 2 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 5 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 5 | +1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In this worst case scenario for the SNP, on current polls, Education Minister Mike Russell would be returned as a list MSP for the region, despite having lost his Argyll and Bute seat. Current MSPs David Thompson and Rob Gibson would also be returned, as would John Finnie, SNP leader on the Highlands council. For Labour Peter Peacock is not standing, but Rhoda Grant and Dave Stewart, Labour’s chief whip would be re-elected. Finally the Conservative’s Jamie McGrigor would be re-elected, but Mary Scanlon would not, having been bumped down the list by one in favour of McGrigor. McGrigor, as the party’s Shadow Environment minister, is probably more important to the party right now. In this scenario the SNP get the final seat. A swing of more than 0.8% from Labour to the SNP would give Labour the final seat, and give the seat to Linda Stewart, the wife of Dave Stewart, and a lecturer at Inverness College. A swing of about 1% from SNP to the Green Party would also give them a seat and elect Eleanor Scott, a former MSP for the region and a paediatrician, who is a ‘co-convenor’ of the party (co-leader, essentially). In order for the Conservatives to re-elect Mary Scanlon they would need to gain about 3% from Labour and the SNP, and finally, the Lib Dems would need to gain more than 10%.
This is a somewhat unlikely scenario, however.
Scenario 2: Lib Dems win five constituency seats, SNP hold Na h-Eileanan Iar
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 0 | 18 | 25.1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| SNP | 3 | 34.4 | 38.2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 5 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 5 | +1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | |
In terms of overall seats this scenario produces the same result. The main difference is to compensate for the hold in the Western Isles, Labour’s Linda Stewart would be elected, and would John Finnie would not be. As the overall seats remain the same the maths regarding swings remains the same.
Scenario 3: Lib Dems hold all their constituency seats or hold three and take Argyll and Bute, Labour takes Na-h Eileanan Iar.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 1 | 18 | 25.1 | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 3 | 34.4 | 38.2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 4 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In this scenario, Rhoda Grant, Dave Stewart and Linda Stewart are elected for Labour, and once again Jamie McGrigor takes a seat, but Mary Scanlon does not. The SNP list MSPs depend on which constituency seat the Lib Dems take or don’t take. In the most likely scenario the SNP hold Argyll and Bute, which means Mike Russell already has a seat and as such the three regional MSPs are Dave Thomson, Rob Gibson and John Finnie. If Russell does not take Argyll and Bute, but Rob Gibson takes Caithness, Sutherland and Ross just remove Gibson from that list and put in Russell. Same story if Dave Thomson takes Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.
In this scenario the final seat is in the hands of Labour. A swing of more than 1.5% from Labour to SNP would elect Jean Urquhart, a Highlands Councillor and the party’s Shetland candidate. A swing of about 1% from Labour to the Greens would elect Eleanor Scott whereas a swing of about 1.5% from Labour to the Tories would elected Mary Scanlon. Once again it would take a significant change in the Lib Dem vote to have them elect any regional members.
Scenario 4: All seats held by the current holder/Lib Dems take Argyll and Bute but lose a seat elsewhere
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 0 | 18 | 24.1 | 4 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 4 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 4 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
No change from above in the overall seat apportionment. Otherwise the only change is that without Na h-Eileanan An Iar Labour’s John MacKay, the party’s candidate in Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, would be elected.
Scenario 5: SNP either hold Argyll and Bute and take a Lib Dem seat or lose Argyll and Bute and take two Lib Dem seats, Labour take Na h-Eileanan Iar
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 1 | 18 | 25.1 | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 4 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 3 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 3 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Elected are Rhonda Grant and Dave and Linda Stewart for Labour, Jamie McGrigor for the Conservatives and three SNP regional MSPs. Which MSPs is a matter of which constituencies they take. If they hold Argyll and Bute and take Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Rob Gibson, John Finnie and Jean Urquart will be elected. If they take Caithness, Sutherland and Ross instead of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Thomson will be elected rather than Gibson. In the unlikely event they lose Argyll and Bute and take the other two then Mike Russell will be re-elected.
A swing of just 0.1% would elect the Green Party’s Eleanor Scott rather than the SNP’s Jean Urquart, however. Whereas a swing of about 0.5% from the SNP and Greens would re-elect the Conservative’s Mary Scanlon. Labour would have to gain several percentage points in order to elect their fourth list MSP, John MacKay.
Scenario 6: SNP make a net gain of 1 from the Lib Dems and hold Na h-Eileanan Iar
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 0 | 18 | 25.1 | 4 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 5 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 2 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 3 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The same overall result as scenario 5, except with the Labour Party electing John MacKay instead of one of the SNP seats. If the party got enough votes to take a regional seat from the SNP they would elect Mary Galbraith, a prominent Scottish activist who has stood at Westminster and Holyrood level before.
Scenario 7: SNP gain two seats from the Lib Dems, Labour gain Na h-Eileanan Iar from the SNP.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 1 | 18 | 25.1 | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 5 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 2 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 2 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Once again almost the same exact scenario as scenario 5, excepting that the SNP lose a regional seat to the Lib Dems, resulting in them electing Jamie Paterson, who comes from a long Liberal line, and who’s worked for two Highland MSPs. For the Lib Dems, this is, in terms of the constituency seats, their nightmare scenario. As so many people on the SNP regional list fill constituency seats in this scenario the SNP have to go to candidate number six and seven on their list: Jean Urquhart, and Mike MacKenzie, a prominent campaigner and businessman in Argyll and Bute.
Scenario 8: SNP hold all their seats and take two seats from the Lib Dems.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change |
| Labour | 0 | 18 | 25.1 | 4 | 4 | +1 |
| SNP | 6 | 34.4 | 39.7 | 1 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 2 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In what is the best potential outcome for the SNP they turn the current 4-4 SNP/Lib Dem constituency seat split into a 6-2 split. This scenario is the same as above except they lose their final list seat to Labour’s John McKay.
Overall Summary
In many ways these scenarios are a bad result for both the Westminster governing parties. For the Lib Dems the first 2 scenarios must be highly unlikely if polls hold, and later scenarios demonstrate that the party is unlikely to be compensated by a list seat if it loses a constituency seat. The Conservatives too, lose a seat under these projections. That said there is a long tradition of Liberalism in this region, and having a MP in the cabinet may be to the Lib Dem’s advantage. Investigation by Political Scrapbook shows that the budget gave some money to a railway in the area. While Political Scrapbook’s tone is typically missionary in its criticism, it is certainly true that having a Highlands MP as Chief Secretary to the Cabinet may have had an effect on this decision, if only because the Highlands are so remote and sparsely populated that they are often ignored. With the long history of Lib Dem popularity in the area, Lib Dem support may be ‘harder’ than elsewhere in Scotland. Of course, this is just educated speculation, and I wouldn’t bet on it, given the polls. If this speculation does turn out to be right however, then for the polls to be accurate the Lib Dems must be losing more votes elsewhere, so it’s not necessarily good news for the Lib Dems. The Tories too, lose a seat under these projections but Holyrood polling has a long history of underestimating the Conservatives and a couple of extra percentage points should be enough to keep the Tories stable.
The Greens are very close to a seat in many of these scenarios. It is hard to get a hold on such a small party, my suspicion is it will be very close for them to get the final seat on the night. In the end the final seat may come to a tight four-way battle between all the major parties bar the Lib Dems.
Labour should also be buoyed. All our scenarios show them gaining a seat in this region and ahead of the Lib Dems as the second party. Unless the Lib Dems substantially improve they should be about to pick up a seat in the region. The SNP should be able to hold where they are, overall, at least, but have a very good chance of picking up seat.
There is one other party that might be able to pick up a seat but which doesn’t appear in polling. That party is the Scottish Christian Party. The minor Christian Right party got 3.4% of the vote in the region 2007. Christianity is still very strong in parts of the Highlands and Islands and the party may be able a seat if it can beat the Greens and increase its vote to around 6 or 7%. Their top candidate is Dr. Donald Boyd.
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