A Harbinger of Things to Come for the Lib Dems? The SNP take Wick

Sorry for the lateness of this by-election coverage but the good people at the Highland Council took until today to post up the full tables on the result in Wick. We previewed Wick last Wednesday. Wick is represented by three independents (the third formerly a Lib Dem) one of whom, Katrina MacNab, had resigned. With the strongly non-partisan nature of Highland politics this could have been almost anybody’s, but in the end the SNP stormed home, taking 46.8% on the first round and winning the seat on the fourth round as preferences gave their candidate, Gail Ross, 50.1% of the vote.

Candidate	First Pref%	Stage
		1	2		3		4
Gail Ross	46.8%	979	984	15.2%	999	20%	1049	24.8%
Neil MacDonald	19.6%	409	410	3%	421	10.7%	463	20.7%
Niall Smith	9.9%	207	209	6.1%	217	10.7%	245	13.8%
Claire Mari Clarke	9.9%	206	211	15.2%	219	10.7%	236	8.4%
Jim Oag	8.8%	184	191	21.2%	202	14.7%
Laurel Bush	3.7%	73	75	6.1%
Michael Anthony Carr	1.6%	33
Non-Transferable			11	33.3%	22	14.7%	33	5.4%

The SNP is treating this as a sign of things to come. In a sense this is fair enough, the Scottish parliamentary election campaign is now in full swing and Wick is located in the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency which is a Lib Dem held seat and a key SNP target. The Highlands, in general are a Lib Dem heartland and the equivalent Westminster seat has been held by Lib Dems or their predecessors since 1983. The stats are also impressive; the SNP gained 29.9% of first preferences, while the Lib Dems lost 5.6%, and turnout was actually fairly decent for a council by-election at 38.2%. On the other hand the 2007 result includes a massive independent result which may have been SNP-leaning all along, local issues may have also come into play with the former Independent/SNP council replaced by a Independent/Lib Dem/Labour one in 2009. MacNab resigned because of pressure over cuts to local services, the SNP are in the opposition locally and therefore presumably opposing them. Wick is, of course, only a small portion of the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross seat as well, and as a coastal town of over 7,000 residents is not necessarily representative of the whole seat, and indeed this seems to be one of the weaker areas for the Lib Dems in the Highlands, and of course all the usual warnings about council by-elections apply.

That said, this kind of result this close to the Scottish parliamentary election in a battleground seat can only be good news for the SNP. Even if it isn’t indicative it certainly can’t hurt the local SNP campaign to have another councillor under their belt or the appearance of momentum. According to Gail Ross’s twitter feed she feels like a celebrity! While the Lib Dems were not defending this seat the fall in their share of the vote cannot be good news, nor can it purely be blamed on local government issues – Labour’s Neil MacDonald gained 5.7% for his party who are also on the Highland Council government, despite the SNP wave and the presence of Independent Jim Oag, who had stood as the Labour candidate in 2007 (similarly notably Niall Smith had stood for the SNP in the same election). That said it may simply be the case that the Lib Dems purposefully did not dedicate many resources and manpower to this by-election which they have tended to avoid when they’re not defending lately, or Claire Clarke may simply not be a very popular candidate.