Revised Welsh Assembly Forecast: The Constituencies

Having got wind of a poll taking place this week I held back from revising the Welsh Assembly forecast until it was released. It emerged from rmg:Clarity on Thursday but wasn't quite what I was expecting. Despite going through the considerable effort of getting a representative sample from all 40 constituencies they didn't ask separate Constituency or Regional Voting Intention. In fact it wasn't even clear that the VI question related to the Welsh Assembly, although you would hope that's what respondents thought of when they heard the words 'forthcoming election'.

The poll was of some use in that it backed up YouGov's current snapshot of a huge Labour lead at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and, more recently, Plaid Cymru. As such I've averaged the two March polls from YouGov to form the basis for the revised forecast. The key difference from the two forecasts is a 4 point drop in support for Plaid going almost directly to Labour. The Conservatives and the Lib Dems have remained fairly stable since the turn of the year.

So I'll go through the Constituencies region by region. There will be a second post up later today with the regions adjusted before a final fully revised forecast will be published this evening.

Mid & West Wales

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Carmarthen W & P'shire S	Too Close	LAB Lean	CON/	LAB
Llanelli	PC Lean	Too Close	PC/	LAB
Montgomeryshire	Too Close	Too Close	LD/	CON
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Too Close	Too Close	CON/	LAB

It's fair to say that Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South is beginning to look like a Labour gain. They require just a 0.2% swing to take this off the Conservatives and with current polling suggesting the CON>LAB swing is around 7% I'm pushing this into the lean Labour column. In addition, because of Plaid's drop in support they are looking a lot less likely to take this from third. Labour's recent boost in the polling has come at the expense of Plaid Cymru, which has made Llanelli look a lot tighter than it did in January. On uniform swing Labour gain this seat although Plaid's incumbency advantage should help them a little. Certainly Too Close on the current evidence.

As for Montgomeryshire, the recent polling has shown the Tories and Liberal Democarts virtually unchanged since January so I've left that as it is for now. The Lib Dems currently hold his on UNS but the previous incumbent's behaviour may harm their defence. Preseli Pembrokeshire is looking quite good for Labour but their margin on UNS isn't large. This is still looking close at the moment and a modest rise in the Conservative's, or a small drop in Labour's, polling would swing this back to them.

As for the other seats in Mid & West Wales, Plaid Cymru are still clear favourites in Ceredigion, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. In the final seat the Liberal Democrats look like they have enough to see off the Conservative challenge in Brecon & Radnorshire, especially as the incumbent is their Assembly Leader Kirsty Williams.

North Wales

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Aberconwy	Too Close	Too Close	PC/	CON/	LAB
Arfon	PC Safe	PC Lean
Clwyd South	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Clwyd West	Too Close	LAB Lean	CON/	LAB

In North Wales Aberconwy is still very tight. On UNS Labour gain this from third place but they were quite a way behind the Conservatives in second at the last election. The Tories should be able to use this to their advantage in the campaign. The seat is held by Plaid Cymru but they look like they are going to struggle here. The loss of their incumbent and their current polling suggests they are set to lose this seat. The question is, who to?! Plaid's drop in the polls has brought Arfon slightly in to play. Nationalist supporters shouldn't get too worried; unlike Llanelli they still win this on UNS. However, the polling suggests their majority will be cut to around 1000 votes so they can't be too complacent.

At this stage it is hard to imagine Labour losing any seats they won in 2007 and so Clywd South, where they are defending a 1119 vote majority, should now be considered safe. In Clywd West Labour need a 3.2% swing to gain the seat from the Conservatives, which they do so with ease on current polling. That's been moved from Too Close to Labour Lean.

The other five seats have been left as they are for now. Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clywd and Wrexham should all stay with Labour, although the latter three I'm leaving as Leans given how close they were last time. I think Ynys Mon still leans Plaid Cymru although Labour do get quite close on UNS. The fact the incumbent AM is Plaid's Assembly Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones should be enough to hold the seat.

South Wales Central

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Cardiff Central	Too Close	Too Close	LD/	LAB
Cardiff North	Too Close	Too Close	CON/	LAB

As we move around South Wales I have mostly changed Labour Leans to Labour Safes. I had factored in a higher than average LD>LAB swing in Cardiff Central due to the large student population so the fact Labour are now quite close to the Liberal Democrats here on UNS doesn't affect the forecast. Labour just manage to gain Cardiff North on Uniform Swing but the incumbency advantage the prominent sitting Conservative AM Jonathan Morgan should enjoy leaves this very much in the balance.

Elsewhere in South Wales Central I have moved Cardiff South & Penarth, Cardiff West and Pontypridd into the Labour Safe column. Cynon Valley and Rhondda were already there and as Labour are defending a tiny 83 vote majority in Vale of Glamorgan that has remained a Labour
Lean.

South Wales East

In South Wales East I consider Caerphilly, Islwyn, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, Newport East, Newport West and Torfaen as safe for Labour. Monmouth is a safe seat for the Conservatives so that on leaves Blaenau Gwent as slightly in doubt. This very much leans towards Labour though.

South Wales West

In South Wales West Labour are virtually assured of all seven seats on the current polling. Which means Aberavon, Bridgend, Gower, Neath, Ogmore, Swansea East and Swansea West should all fall in the Labour column come May 5^th.

We make no bones about the fact we are covering this election from the South West of England and so we may be missing developments on the ground in Wales. If you are out and about on the campaign trail then don't hesitate to disagree with any of our classifications! Look out for the Revised Regional projection later this afternoon. There is a surprise or two!