Welsh Assembly Election: Revised Forecast

So, here it is; albeit a little later than originally billed:

		2007	Initial	Revised
Labour		26	28-33	32-34
Plaid Cymru		15	12-15	10-11
Conservatives		12	10-13	11-14
Lib. Dems.		6	4-5	2-3
Independent		1	0	0
UKIP		0	0	1

The major change from the Initial forecast is that we are now projecting a Labour majority, which would be their first since the Assembly was formed. Their rise in the polling has meant a couple of their target seats now Lean Labour which has pushed them over the magical 30 seat mark. In addition their impressive regional vote share could give them a few bonus seats in their Southern heartlands. With around 50% of the vote in the three South Wales regions they can expected to take most of the constituencies and a couple of regional seats as well. With just a few weeks to go until polling day the question has changed from 'can Labour secure a majority?' to 'how big will it be?' At the moment we're projecting between 4 and 8 seats but there are still a few weeks to go. I'd say it is quite unlikely Labour will be able to push above 35 seats on the current evidence.

Plaid Cymru have followed the Liberal Democrats as the most recent party to suffer from Labour's rise in support. Plaid compete with Labour and the Liberal Democrats for left leaning voters in South Wales and as the Lib Dems are down to their core vote the Nationalists were next in line. A number of the regional seats now look in jeopardy and Llanelli is now very much in play for Labour to gain.

The Conservatives are doggedly sticking around 20% of the vote which could get them a net gain in seats from 2007. If Plaid continue to struggle then the Tories will benefit by snatching a few regional seats from them. At least any constituency losses to Labour are likely to be compensated on the list.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to get fewer seats compared to the Initial Forecast which is entirely because of the slight drop in their regional vote. They were on the edge of the effective threshold in a few regions and the slight fall in support has lost them a couple of seats. Obviously, a small recovery from this level will claw those back again.

Finally, the big surprise is that UKIP are currently on course to get a regional seat in South Wales East. In general, with Plaid struggling a poor Liberal Democrat performance should benefit Labour and the Tories in the regional lists but if a minor party can get above the effective threshold then they are very much in with a shout. Clearly South Wales East is the most likely region for this to happen in but there are opportunities in others for a late minor party surge. Equally, they are at the mercy of the larger parties because they essentially need to beat the Liberal Democrats into fourth and hope the votes fall in such a way that the threshold for the fourth seat is manageable. I would say anything over 7% is going to be difficult for a minor party to reach.

A Final Forecast will be done close to polling day and hopefully by then another established polling company will have produced a poll on this election.

Here is the breakdown of the above forecast:

Mid & West Wales

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Brecon & Radnorshire	LD Lean	LD Lean
Carmarthen E & Dinefwr	PC Safe	PC Safe
Carmarthen W & P'shire S	Too Close	LAB Lean	CON/	LAB
Ceredigion	PC Lean	PC Lean
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	PC Safe	PC Safe
Llanelli	PC Lean	Too Close	PC/	LAB
Montgomeryshire	Too Close	Too Close	LD/	CON
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Too Close	LAB Lean	CON/	LAB

Regional
Safe	Key Contenders
1. Joyce Watson	2. Rebecca Evans
1. Nick Bourne	2. Lisa Francis
	1. Simon Thomas
	3. Matthew Dorrance
	3. Marilyn Elson

North Wales

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Aberconwy	Too Close	Too Close	PC/	CON/	LAB
Alyn & Deeside	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Arfon	PC Safe	PC Lean
Clwyd South	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Clwyd West	Too Close	LAB Lean	CON/	LAB
Delyn	LAB Lean	LAB Lean
Vale of Clwyd	LAB Lean	LAB Lean
Wrexham	LAB Lean	LAB Lean
Ynys Mons	PC Lean	PC Lean

Regional
Safe	Key Contenders
1. Mark Isherwood	3. Janet Howarth
2. Antoinette Sandbach	1. Llyr Huws Gruffydd
	4. Julian Thompson-Hill
	1. Aled Roberts?

South Wales Central

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Cardiff Central	Too Close	Too Close	LD/	LAB
Cardiff North	Too Close	Too Close	CON/	LAB
Cardiff South & Penarth	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Cardiff West	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Cynon Valley	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Pontypridd	Lab Lean	LAB Safe
Rhondda	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Vale of Glamorgan	Lab Lean	Lab Lean

Regional
Safe	Key Contenders
1. Andrew Davies	2. David Melding
1. Leanne Wood	1. John Dixon
	3. Andrew Jordan
	3. Lyn Hudson
	2. Chris Franks?

South Wales East

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Blaenau Gwent	LAB Lean	LAB Lean
Caerphilly	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Islwyn	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Monmouth	CON Safe	CON Safe
Newport East	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Newport West	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Torfaen	LAB Safe	LAB Safe

Regional
Safe	Key Contenders
1. Jocelyn Davies	1. Debbie Wilcox
1. William Graham	1. David Rowlands
	2. Mohammad Asghar
	1. Veronica German

South Wales West

Constituency	Initial	Revised
Aberavon	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Bridgend	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Gower	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Neath	LAB Lean	LAB Safe
Ogmore	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Swansea East	LAB Safe	LAB Safe
Swansea West	LAB Lean	LAB Safe

Regional
Safe	Key Contenders
1. Suzy Davies	2. Byron Davies
1. Bethan Jenkins	2. Dai Lloyd
	1. Peter Black

You can find more detailed discussion of the constituencies here and the regions here.