Having had a look at all forty constituencies and playing around with likely scenarios it's about time I released an initial forecast on the Welsh Assembly Election. Now, for consistency I set a cut off point for polling at the end of January and I haven't been influenced by any comments to our posts. Over the next week I will use the two new YouGov polls, which have shown Labour pulling further ahead and Plaid Cymru falling back behind the Conservatives, to work out a revised forecast.
The key problem with the polling at the moment is that only YouGov have done any. This does not compare well to Scotland where five different companies have conduced surveys. Obviously it's hardly surprising there is less interest in the Welsh election considering the result is looking like a forgone conclusion but one poll from another company would be nice to quell out any doubts about YouGov's potential 'house effects'. Perhaps we'll get one closer to the election.
Anyway, without further ado, here's the first forecast:
| 2007 | BV.co.uk |
Labour | 26 | 28-33 |
Plaid Cymru | 15 | 12-15 |
Conservatives | 12 | 10-13 |
Lib. Dems. | 6 | 4-5 |
Independent | 1 | 0 |
As expected Labour look certain to make gains at this election. They should pick up at least two seats by retaking Blaenau Gwent from the Independent Trish Law and increasing their regional vote. Plaid may struggle just to stand still, despite polling around 2007 levels, because they are set to lose regional seats as a knock on effect of Labour's rise. The Tories have also sat around their 2007 support but unlike Plaid they could end up with more seats. Although a few of their constituency seats are under threat from Labour these losses should be compensated in the regional list, usually at Plaid's expense. In addition they have an opportunity to take a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Montgomeryshire. Finally the Liberal Democrats are likely to lose seats but they should avoid a total wipeout. The margins are tight though as they are hovering just about the effective threshold for regional seats. A small drop in list vote share could cost them three seats.
Feel free to question the calls either here or on the constituencies own articles.
Here's how the forecast breaks down region by region:
Mid & West Wales
Constituency | B-V.co.uk |
| ||
LD Lean |
| |||
PC Safe |
| |||
Too Close | CON/ | LAB/ | PC | |
PC Lean |
| |||
PC Safe |
| |||
PC Lean |
| |||
Too Close | LD/ | CON | ||
Too Close | CON/ | LAB/ |
Safe | Contenders |
1. Joyce Watson | 1. Nick Bourne |
2. Mary Rees | |
2. Lisa Francis | |
3. Matthew Dorrance | |
3. ? | |
4. Rebecca Evans |
North Wales
Constituency | B-V.co.uk | |||
Too Close | PC/ | CON/ | LAB | |
LAB Safe | ||||
PC Safe | ||||
LAB Lean | ||||
Too Close | CON/ | LAB | ||
LAB Lean | ||||
LAB Lean | ||||
LAB Lean | ||||
PC Lean |
Safe | Contenders |
1. Mark Isherwood | 2. Heledd Fychan |
1. Llyr Huws Gruffydd | 3. Antoinette Sandbach |
2. Brynle Williams |
South Wales Central
Constituency | B-V.co.uk | ||
Too Close | LD/ | LAB | |
Too Close | CON/ | LAB | |
LAB Lean | |||
LAB Lean | |||
LAB Safe | |||
Lab Lean | |||
LAB Safe | |||
Lab Lean |
Safe | Contenders |
1. Leanne Wood | 2. Chris Franks |
1. Andrew Davies | 2. David Melding |
1. John Dixon |
South Wales East
Constituency | B-V.co.uk |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Safe | |
CON Safe | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Safe |
1. Jocelyn Davies |
1. William Graham |
1. Veronica German |
2. Lindsay Whittle |
South Wales West
Constituency | B-V.co.uk |
LAB Safe | |
LAB Safe | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Lean | |
LAB Safe | |
LAB Safe | |
LAB Lean |
1. Bethan Jenkins |
1. Suzy Davies |
1. Peter Black |
2. Dai Lloyd |
Nb. To clarify, in the regional breakdowns I have only classed a candidate as safe if they won a seat under every tested scenario. For example, Conservative leader Nick Bourne isn't classed as safe because if his party hold the two seats they are defending and gain Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats he is then at risk. He would have been elected in 9 of the 10 scenarios tested though, so I'm pretty sure he'll be fine!
On a point of information, Brynle Williams AM (Con, North Wales) died yesterday aged 62. No information has been published so far on the new ordering in North Wales as a result.
ReplyDeleteWould you like me to post my own forecast based on the recent YouGov poll published on March 31st?
Mari Rees is no longer no.2 on the Mid and West Wales Labour list either. She's been replaced as No. 2 by Recebba Evans. Iqbal Malik is the new No. 4.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info guys.
ReplyDelete@ Harry: Someone commented on the North Wales article suggesting the current #3 candidate Antoinette Sandbach will move up one.
Mari Rees passed away this morning after fighting a long battle with terminal cancer. She will be sorely missed by many.
ReplyDeleteNew Election Poll reveals Labour Majority: http://www.rmg-clarity.co.uk/blog/2011/4/7/welsh-assembly-election-2011.html
ReplyDelete