Saturday 2 April 2011

Welsh Assembly Election: Initial Forecast

Having had a look at all forty constituencies and playing around with likely scenarios it's about time I released an initial forecast on the Welsh Assembly Election. Now, for consistency I set a cut off point for polling at the end of January and I haven't been influenced by any comments to our posts. Over the next week I will use the two new YouGov polls, which have shown Labour pulling further ahead and Plaid Cymru falling back behind the Conservatives, to work out a revised forecast.

The key problem with the polling at the moment is that only YouGov have done any. This does not compare well to Scotland where five different companies have conduced surveys. Obviously it's hardly surprising there is less interest in the Welsh election considering the result is looking like a forgone conclusion but one poll from another company would be nice to quell out any doubts about YouGov's potential 'house effects'. Perhaps we'll get one closer to the election.

Anyway, without further ado, here's the first forecast:

  

2007

BV.co.uk

Labour

26

28-33

Plaid Cymru

15

12-15

Conservatives

12

10-13

Lib. Dems.

6

4-5

Independent

1

0

As expected Labour look certain to make gains at this election. They should pick up at least two seats by retaking Blaenau Gwent from the Independent Trish Law and increasing their regional vote. Plaid may struggle just to stand still, despite polling around 2007 levels, because they are set to lose regional seats as a knock on effect of Labour's rise. The Tories have also sat around their 2007 support but unlike Plaid they could end up with more seats. Although a few of their constituency seats are under threat from Labour these losses should be compensated in the regional list, usually at Plaid's expense. In addition they have an opportunity to take a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Montgomeryshire. Finally the Liberal Democrats are likely to lose seats but they should avoid a total wipeout. The margins are tight though as they are hovering just about the effective threshold for regional seats. A small drop in list vote share could cost them three seats.

Feel free to question the calls either here or on the constituencies own articles.

Here's how the forecast breaks down region by region:

Mid & West Wales

Constituency

B-V.co.uk

  

  

Brecon & Radnorshire

LD Lean

  

  

Carmarthen E & Dinefwr

PC Safe

  

  

Carmarthen W & P'shire S

Too Close

CON/

LAB/

PC

Ceredigion

PC Lean

  

  

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

PC Safe

  

  

Llanelli

PC Lean

  

  

Montgomeryshire

Too Close

LD/

CON

 

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Too Close

CON/

LAB/

 


 

Regional

Safe

Contenders

1. Joyce Watson

1. Nick Bourne

 

2. Mary Rees

 

2. Lisa Francis

 

3. Matthew Dorrance

 

3. ?

 

4. Rebecca Evans

North Wales

Constituency

B-V.co.uk

   

Aberconwy

Too Close

PC/

CON/

LAB

Alyn & Deeside

LAB Safe

   

Arfon

PC Safe

   

Clwyd South

LAB Lean

   

Clwyd West

Too Close

CON/

LAB

 

Delyn

LAB Lean

   

Vale of Clwyd

LAB Lean

   

Wrexham

LAB Lean

   

Ynys Mons

PC Lean

   


 

Regional

Safe

Contenders

1. Mark Isherwood

2. Heledd Fychan

1. Llyr Huws Gruffydd

3. Antoinette Sandbach

2. Brynle Williams

 

South Wales Central

Constituency

B-V.co.uk

  

Cardiff Central

Too Close

LD/

LAB

Cardiff North

Too Close

CON/

LAB

Cardiff South & Penarth

LAB Lean

  

Cardiff West

LAB Lean

  

Cynon Valley

LAB Safe

  

Pontypridd

Lab Lean

  

Rhondda

LAB Safe

  

Vale of Glamorgan

Lab Lean

  


 

Regional

Safe

Contenders

1. Leanne Wood

2. Chris Franks

1. Andrew Davies

2. David Melding

 

1. John Dixon

South Wales East

Constituency

B-V.co.uk

Blaenau Gwent

LAB Lean

Caerphilly

LAB Lean

Islwyn

LAB Lean

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

LAB Safe

Monmouth

CON Safe

Newport East

LAB Lean

Newport West

LAB Lean

Torfaen

LAB Safe


 

Regional

1. Jocelyn Davies

1. William Graham

1. Veronica German

2. Lindsay Whittle

South Wales West

Constituency

B-V.co.uk

Aberavon

LAB Safe

Bridgend

LAB Safe

Gower

LAB Lean

Neath

LAB Lean

Ogmore

LAB Safe

Swansea East

LAB Safe

Swansea West

LAB Lean


 

Regional

1. Bethan Jenkins

1. Suzy Davies

1. Peter Black

2. Dai Lloyd


 

Nb. To clarify, in the regional breakdowns I have only classed a candidate as safe if they won a seat under every tested scenario. For example, Conservative leader Nick Bourne isn't classed as safe because if his party hold the two seats they are defending and gain Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats he is then at risk. He would have been elected in 9 of the 10 scenarios tested though, so I'm pretty sure he'll be fine!

5 comments:

  1. On a point of information, Brynle Williams AM (Con, North Wales) died yesterday aged 62. No information has been published so far on the new ordering in North Wales as a result.

    Would you like me to post my own forecast based on the recent YouGov poll published on March 31st?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mari Rees is no longer no.2 on the Mid and West Wales Labour list either. She's been replaced as No. 2 by Recebba Evans. Iqbal Malik is the new No. 4.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the info guys.

    @ Harry: Someone commented on the North Wales article suggesting the current #3 candidate Antoinette Sandbach will move up one.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mari Rees passed away this morning after fighting a long battle with terminal cancer. She will be sorely missed by many.

    ReplyDelete
  5. New Election Poll reveals Labour Majority: http://www.rmg-clarity.co.uk/blog/2011/4/7/welsh-assembly-election-2011.html

    ReplyDelete