National Assembly Elections 2011 : Nineteen Days to Go and counting

All the manifestos have been launched by the mainstream parties (complete with spelling mistakes and grammar errors), the first round of party election broadcasts have been released onto an unsuspecting mass audience (although whether they watch them or not remains to be seen), and up and down Wales candidates and canvassers are knocking on doors a plenty asking for people’s votes (although I have not seen much activity in the hills and mountains) and what impact has it all had on the polls? To be frankly honest, very little!

Constituency (and change on 2007):

Labour 49% (+17%) Conservatives 20% (-2%) Plaid Cymru 17% (-5%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-7%) Others 6% (-3%)

Regional (and change on 2007):

Labour 44% (+14%) Conservatives 20% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 18% (-3%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-4%) Others 10% (-6%)

Regional Others Breakdown (and change on 2007):

United Kingdom Independence Party 4% (unchanged) Greens 2% (-1%) Others 4% (-1%)

Constituency Swing: 10% from Conservative to Labour, 11% from Plaid Cymru to Labour

Regional Swing: 8% from Conservative to Labour, 9% from Plaid Cymru to Labour

Very little change on the surface, but a few interesting trends none the less (especially with the too close to call seats)

Labour wins too close to call: Arfon (1.41% over Plaid) Cardiff Central (4.33% over Lib Dems), Aberconwy (4.39% over Plaid Cymru)

Conservative wins too close to call: Montgomeryshire (5.11% over Lib Dems)

Liberal Democrat wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (1.05% over Con)

Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (3.02% over Lab), Ynys Môn (4.03% over Lab)

Since my last forecast, Arfon has moved into the Labour column whilst Preseli and Cardiff North now look certain Labour gains. Montgomeryshire has become “too close to call” suggesting a Lib Dem fightback in the seat as demonstrated by Brecon and Radnorshire now appearing as a Lib Dem too close to call seat and Carmarthen East and Ynys Môn both trending Labour, so what do I make of that with regards to my own personal opinions?

Labour wins too close to call: Arfon (Labour GAIN, too close to call) Cardiff Central (Labour GAIN confirmed), Aberconwy (Labour GAIN confirmed)

Conservative wins too close to call: Montgomeryshire (Conservative GAIN confirmed)

Liberal Democrat wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (Lib Dem HOLD confirmed)

Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Plaid HOLD, too close to call), Ynys Môn (Plaid HOLD, too close to call)

Which gives us a constituency tally of:

Labour 33 (+9)

Conservatives 2 (-3)

Plaid Cymru 4 (-3)

Liberal Democrats 1 (-2)

Regional List Allocations:

South Wales Central

Conservatives win the first seat (Andrew Davies AM re-elected)

Plaid Cymru win the second seat (Leanne Wood AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the third seat (David Melding AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the fourth seat (John Dixon elected)

Mid and West Wales

Conservatives win the first seat (Nick Bourne AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (Lisa Francis elected)

Labour win the third seat (Joyce Watson AM re-elected)

Plaid Cymru win the fourth seat (Simon Thomas elected)

North Wales

Conservatives win the first seat (Mark Isherwood AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (Antoinette Sandbach elected)

Plaid Cymru win the third seat (Llyr Huws Gruffydd elected)

Conservatives win the fourth seat (Janet Haworth elected)

South Wales East

Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Jocelyn Davies AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (William Graham AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the third seat (Veronica German AM re-elected)

Labour win the fourth seat (Deborah Wilcox elected)

South Wales West

Conservatives win the second seat (Suzy Davies elected)

Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Bethan Jenkins AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the third seat (Peter Black AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the fourth seat (Bryon Davies elected)

Forecast Composition of the National Assembly:

Constituencies: Labour 33 Plaid Cymru 4 Conservatives 2 Liberal Democrats 1

Regional List: Conservatives 10 Plaid Cymru 5 Liberal Democrats 3 Labour 2

Overall Totals: Labour 35 Conservatives 12 Plaid Cymru 9 Liberal Democrats 4