Revised Welsh Assembly Forecast: The Regions

The Additional Member System isn't the easiest to get your head around but I'll try and keep this as assessable and as brief as is possible. The changes in the regional seats from the initial forecast will be down to a combination of two reasons. Firstly, due to the adjustments to our constituency calls and secondly because of the changes in each party's polling levels in the Regional Voting Intention. The changes since the first forecast are as follows:

LAB	PC	CON	LD	UKIP	GRN
+4	-4	nc	-1.5	+1.5	+1

So from the first forecast we can expect to see Labour gaining at Plaid's expense. The Liberal Democrats were tottering right on the edge of the effective regional threshold so with this slight drop (entirely due to a 5% in the early March poll) they are at serious risk of losing seats. With UKIP averaging 5.5% across the two March polls could they sneak their first seat in the Assembly? Let's find out…

Mid & West Wales

The revised constituency forecast doesn't really help clarify how the seats are going to fall so a number of permutations will need to be explored. Although I've tentatively pushed Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire East into the Labour column Plaid Cymru held Llanelli now looks under threat from the rising red tide. The base seat distribution for the called seats is; LAB 1 (Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire East), PC 3 (Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meirionnydd), CON 0, LD 1 (Brecon & Radnorshire).The three seats I've left 'Too Close' are Llanelli (PC/LAB), Montgomeryshire (LD/CON) and Preseli Pembrokeshire (CON/LAB) leave eight possible permutations. I'll go through them using the following vote shares:

Party	2007	U-Swing
Labour	18	33
Plaid Cymru	31	27
Conservatives	23	22
Lib. Dems.	13	7.5

A quick look at the regional breakdowns for the polls used in this analysis reveals the Conservatives slightly higher than UNS and Plaid slightly worse. I'll make a note of any scenarios where a regional adjustment taking this into account makes any difference.

If all three seats are held by the incumbent party (Llanelli – PC, M'shire – LD, P'shire – CON) the elected candidates would be:

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 2: Rebecca Evans (LAB), Seat 3: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 4: Matthew Dorrance (LAB).

If the Tories have a particularly good night and take Montgomeryshire as well as holding Preseli Pembrokeshire (with all the other seats remaining the same as above):

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 2: Rebecca Evans (LAB), Seat 3: Matthew Dorrance (LAB), Seat 4: Nick Bourne (CON).

If the Tories have a good night (as above) but Labour gain Llanelli from Plaid:

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 2: Rebecca Evans (LAB), Seat 3: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 4: Simon Thomas (PC). Labour are very close to taking this last seat from Plaid on UNS and do so with the regional adjustment.

If Labour take Llanelli but are held off in Pembrokeshire by the Tories, who in turn do not gain Montgomeryshire from the Lib Dems:

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 2: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 3: Rebecca Evans (LAB), Seat 4: Lisa Francis (CON). The last seat is quite tight between the Tories, Plaid and Labour but the Conservatives are a bit more comfortable on the regional adjustment.

If Labour have a good night and win both Llanelli from Plaid and Pembrokeshire from the Tories, who in turn have a poor night and fail to gain Montgomeryshire from the Lib Dems:

Seat 1: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 2: Lisa Francis (CON), Seat 3: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 4: Marilyn Elson (CON). Again, the last is seat tight between three parties on UNS but easier for the Tories with regional adjustment.

If Labour have a good night with three gains in this region and the Tories do gain Montgomeryshire from the Lib Dems:

Seat 1: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 2: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 3: Lisa Francis (CON), Seat 4: Simon Thomas (PC). Last seat is very close between Plaid Cymru and Labour.

If the Tories have a bad night and lose Pembrokeshire to Labour as well as failing to gain Montgomeryshire whilst Plaid manage to hold of Labour in Llanelli:

Seat 1: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 2: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 3: Lisa Francis (CON), Seat 4: Rebecca Evans (LAB).

FINALLY(!), if Plaid hold Llanelli whilst Labour gain Pembrokeshire and the Tories gain Montgomeryshire:

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB), Seat 2: Nick Bourne (CON), Seat 3: Rebecca Evans (LAB), Seat 4: Lisa Francis (CON).

So, to summarise all that! Well, you may have noticed Joyce Watson and Nick Bourne crop up a lot. They look very safe at the moment to win a seat. Labour's second candidate Rebecca Evans is relying on her party not to gain both seats if she is to enter the assembly. The Tories #2 candidate Lisa Francis is likely to pick up a seat if they only win one constituency. Similarly Plaid's lead candidate Simon Thomas only comes in to play if his party lose in Llanelli. Labour and the Conservatives' #3 candidates have outside chances of winning a seat but their party will have to do poorly in the constituencies for them to get elected. As I think that on current evidence the Liberal Democrats will hold Brecon and Radnorshire then they aren't in the running for a list seat.

North Wales

You'll be pleased to hear that Mid & West Wales is by far the most complicated region and it gets a little easier from here on in! In the revised constituency forecast I changed Clywd West to a Labour Lean so only one seat in the 'Too Close' column – Aberconwy. Plaid Cymru currently hold Aberconwy but both the Conservatives and Labour are hoping to gain the seat at this election. If we ignore Aberconwy for the moment the base constituency forecast for this region is: Labour - 6 seats (Alyn & Deeside, Clwyd South, Clywd West [gain from CON], Delyn, Vale of Clywd and Wrexham); Plaid Cymru - 2 seats (Arfon, Ynys Mons). I'll go through the list distribution depending on who wins Aberconwy on the following Uniform Swing figures:

Party	2007	U-Swing
Labour	26	41
Plaid Cymru	26	22
Conservatives	26	25
Lib. Dems.	8	2.5

One particularly major thing to note about the regional split in the polling is that although the Liberal Democrats appear to have lost 5.5% of their vote nationally in North Wales it seems to be holding up (and Labour aren't as far in front). Now, I'm aware of the problems with regional sub-sets (un-weighted, small samples) but the possibility that they will manage around 7-8% in this North Wales is worth considering as it would push them over the effective threshold of a list seat. As above, I'll add on the results from the regional adjustment.

So, if Plaid Cymru hold Aberconwy:

Seat 1: Mark Isherwood (CON), Seat 2: Antoinette Sandback (CON), Seat 3: Janet Howarth (CON), Seat 4: Julian Thompson-Hill (CON). So the Tories win all four regional list seats. However, the Liberal Democrat lead candidate Aled Roberts will take the last one if they are indeed holding their 2007 support.

If the Conservatives gain Aberconwy:

Seat 1: Mark Isherwood (CON), Seat 2: Antoinette Sandback (CON), Seat 3: Llyr Huws Griffiths (PC), Seat 4: Janet Howarth (CON). On UNS Labour's Gwyneth Thomas challenges for the final seat but with the regional adjustment the Liberal Democrat Aled Roberts takes the third seat, pushing Griffiths to fourth and Howarth out.

If Labour gain Aberconwy:

Seat 1: Mark Isherwood (CON), Seat 2: Antoinette Sandback (CON), Seat 3: Janet Howarth (CON), Seat 4: Llyr Huws Griffiths (PC). The Liberal Democrats would again take a seat on the regional adjustment, this time at the expense of Plaid.

So in North Wales Mark Isherwood and Antoinette Sandback look pretty safe for the Tories. This is because they are looking likely to lose Clywd South. If the Liberal Democrats fall below the effective threshold, which looks likely to be around 7% here, then Plaid Cymru should be compensated with a list seat if they lose Aberconwy. The third Tory candidate Janet Howarth will lose out if the Lib Dems do get enough votes for a seat.

South Wales Central

I didn't call either of the two Cardiff seats deemed Too Close in the initial forecast. So this will just be a re-run of the initial post with the updated VI figures. Labour should win all 6 seats they already hold in this region and they are looking to gain Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats. Therefore we have four scenarios to go through.

The current uniform swing figures are as follows:

Party	2007	U-Swing
Labour	34	49
Plaid Cymru	16	12
Conservatives	22	21
Lib. Dems.	14	8.5

The only major regional discrepancy in the sub-sets are Plaid appear to be holding around 15% compared to just 12% on UNS. In the early March poll both UKIP and the Greens appeared to be doing very well in this region but this was not evident in the second poll. Besides, the Lib Dems look likely to remain above the threshold so it will be tough for either minor party to gain a seat here. A note will be made if Plaid outperforming Universal swing (at Labour's expense) has an affect.

If Labour have a good night and gain both target seats:

Seat 1: Andrew Davies (CON), Seat 2: Leanne Wood (PC), Seat 3: David Melding (CON), Seat 4: John Dixon (LD).

If Labour gain Cardiff North from the Tories, but not Cardiff Central from the Lib Dems:

Seat 1: Andrew Davies (CON), Seat 2: Leanne Wood (PC), Seat 3: David Melding (CON), Seat 4: Lyn Hudson (CON). Plaid's #2 candidate Chris Franks is in with a chance if they do poll around their 2007 figure.

If Labour gain Cardiff Central from the Lib Dems, but not Cardiff North from the Tories:

Seat 1: Leanne Wood (PC), Seat 2: Andrew Davies (CON), Seat 3: John Dixon (LD), Seat 4: David Melding (CON). Again, Chris Franks is challenging for the final seat if Plaid's vote holds up.

If Labour fail to gain either target seat:

Seat 1: Leanne Wood (PC), Seat 2: Andrew Davies (CON), Seat 3: Andrew Jordan (LAB), Seat 4: David Melding (CON). So with almost 50% of the list vote Labour could nick a regional seat in addition to their six constituencies. However, as the regional adjustment increases Plaid's vote at Labour's expense the seat is far from assured under this scenario. Chris Franks takes the third seat in my adjusted calculation with Melding hanging on to that final seat. Unsurprisingly, it's pretty close either way!

So Andrew Davies (CON) and Leanne Wood (PC) are looking good to win a seat at this election. David Melding has a pretty good chance of winning re-election, especially if the Tories lose Cardiff North. John Dixon only wins a seat if the Liberal Democrats fail to hold Cardiff Central. Plaid Cymru's second candidate Chris Franks is in contention providing his party receive around 15% of the list vote. If not then Labour have a chance of adding a list seat to their haul of constituencies in South Wales Central.

South Wales East

Almost there! And the constituencies from here on in are not competitive which makes projecting the list distribution a lot easier. In South Wales East Labour will almost certainly pick up 7 seats with the Conservatives likely to hold their Monmouth seat. So it's just a case of plugging in the current polling figures; get ready for the surprise!

Party	Const. Seats	2007	U-Swing	Add. Members
Labour	7	36	51	1
Plaid Cymru	0	14	10	1
Conservatives	1	20	19	1
Lib. Dems.	0	11	5.5	0
UKIP	0	5	6.5	1

Seat 1: Jocelyn Davies (PC), Seat 2: William Graham (CON), Seat 3: Debbie Wilcox (LAB), Seat 4: David Rowlands (UKIP). There you go. On current polling UKIP win a seat in the Welsh Assembly. It's not easy to dismiss this as a fluke either as the Regional sub-sets confirm UKIP above the Liberal Democrats in South Wales East. There is still a lot of work to do for the anti-EU party as they this final seat is under serious pressure from pretty much everyone. The Tories are first in line to take the fourth seat if neither the Lib Dems nor UKIP reach the effective threshold, which could be only just above 6% in this region. Mohammad Asghar would win re-election if this was the case. The Liberal Democrat lead candidate Veronica German would win a seat if her party recovers a bit from their poor polling. Even Labour are competing for a second regional seat as the subsets would suggest the 51% uniform swing gives them is underestimating their support here. Anthony Hunt is their #2 candidate.

South Wales West

The final region is the easiest for calculating regional seats. Labour hold all 7 constituencies in South Wales West and that's unlikely to change this year. Here's how the regional seats will fall on the current polling:

Party	Const. Seats	2007	U-Swing	Add. Members
Labour	7	36	51	0
Plaid Cymru	0	18	14	2
Conservatives	0	16	15	2
Lib. Dems.	0	12	6.5	0

Seat 1: Suzy Davies (CON), Seat 2: Bethan Jenkins (PC), Seat 3: Byron Davies (CON), Seat 4: David Lloyd (PC). The key change from the last forecast is that the Liberal Democrats have slipped (very slightly) below the effective threshold for a seat so Plaid have taken the final seat. Therefore Liberal Democrat AM Peter Black is very much at risk at the moment. There is little comfort to be found for Black in the sub-sets as they show the 6.5% Uniform Swing leaves them is generous. Plaid may well beat the Tories in vote share which would leave Byron Davies under threat if the Lib Dems out-perform the current polls.

If you liked all that, then you'll love the full revised forecast when it's done! Given how long this took I can't promise that tonight, at least at a reasonable hour…