On Sunday a second poll on the Scottish Parliamentary election has shown the Scottish Nationalists way ahead for Labour in both the Constituency and Regional List voting intention. When the MORI poll was released last week the extreme movement left open the possibility that it was an outlier. However, the latest offering from YouGov has shown a similar lead for Alex Salmond's party, which makes very bad reading for Scottish Labour. Here are the figures, complete with changes from the last YouGov poll in Mid-April and the Scotland-Votes seat calculation:
| Const. | +/- | Regional | +/- | |
SNP | 45 | +5 | 39 | +4 | 61 |
Labour | 32 | -5 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
Conservatives | 10 | -1 | 12 | nc | 13 |
Liberal Democrats | 8 | nc | 7 | nc | 6 |
Greens | - | - | 7 | +1 | 8 |
Independent | - | - | - | - | 1 |
Changes are from YouGov poll on 13th April
This would still leave the SNP short of a majority but they have governed as a minority for the last term with less than 50 seats. If their polling holds until polling day then a much stronger SNP minority Government is surely the only likely outcome of this election.
As a note on our Scotland posts, given the significant shift in public opinion since we have started our seat previews (yes I know, should have started sooner!) all future posts will be based on the latest polling.
If that result materializes, although the SNP and Greens failed to come to an agreement last time around, that would leave pro-independence parties in the Scottish Parliament with a majority, which opens up the very real prospect of a vote on independence during the next term. With the political climate as it is that could be very interesting!
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