This post covers the regional seats in this region. To see the five seats in Fife click here and the Mid Scotland seats are here.
Having completed the constituency seats in this region, therefore, we move onto the seven list seats. After the boundary review the region now looks like this overall:
| Party | Const. Seats | Region Votes | Region Votes % | Add. Members | Total Members |
| SNP | 4 | 83946 | 32.5% | 2 | 6 |
| Labour | 3 | 70204 | 27.2% | 2 | 5 |
| Conservative | 0 | 40408 | 15.6% | 3 | 3 |
| Lib. Dem. | 2 | 34920 | 13.5% | 0 | 2 |
| Green | 0 | 9745 | 3.8% | 0 | 0 |
The regional seats divide up this:
| Additional Members | |
| 1. Murdo Fraser | 2. Elizabeth Smith |
| 3. John Park | 4. |
| 5. Claire Baker | 6. |
| 7. | Richard Simpson |
Labour’s notional gain of Stirling means they lose a seat on the list compared to 2007, with the SNP getting the final seat. Current MSP Richard Simpson is the victim of the SNP gain.
I marked three seats as ‘too close’. The first is Dunfermline which could go either Labour or Lib Dem by my analysis, and the two seats of Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, which could both go to either Labour or the SNP.
UPDATE: Considering the comments on my original Dunfermline analysis I've decided that it is clearly leaning fairly seriously towards Labour. I made a bad call, and I apologise.
This therefore gives us three scenarios, based on whether the SNP and Labour split Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. We’ll basically start with the scenarios that are best for the SNP and worst for Labour and work our way through to worst for the SNP and best for Labour.
I should note that with the recent shift in polling towards the SNP we’ve updated our methodology. Our measure of uniform swing is now based upon an average of the latest Ipsos MORI and YouGov poll.
Scenario 1: The SNP win the seats of Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane. Labour wins Dunfermline
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 3 | 27.2 | 28.5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| SNP | 5 | 32.5 | 42.0 | 2 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
In this scenario the first seat would go to Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Conservative’s deputy leader and shadow health minister. Seat 2 would go to John Park, Labour’s elections and campaigns guru. The third seat would go to Annabelle Ewing, daughter of the SNP’s first post-war MP Annabelle Ewing and a former MP in Westminster’s Perth constituency. The next MSP would be the Conservative’s Elizabeth Smith, the party’s Education Shadow. The sixth seat would then go to Douglas Chapman (SNP), Bruce Campbell MSP’s former researcher and a Fife councillor. The final seat would go to the Green’s Mark Ruskell, a former MSP in this region.
The election of Labour’s Alex Rowley in Dunfermline spells good news for the Greens as under this scenario the Lib Dems lose a seat to their advantage. They are on dangerous ground in this scenario though, as they just get the last seat. From these figures it would take a swing of only around 0.05% from Greens to the SNP to elect Bill Walker in Ruskell’s place. If the Lib Dems gained about 1% then their candidate of Willie Rennie would be elected. In order for Labour and Conservative list MSPs Richard Simpson or Miles Brigg (respectively) to be elected they would have to take votes from the SNP more than the Greens. Taking 1.5% of the vote from the SNP and 1% from the Greens would elect Labour’s Richard Simpson. Similar figures would be required for the Conservative’s Miles Brigg.
Scenario 2: Labour and SNP split Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane one all. Labour takes Dunfermline from the Lib Dems
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 4 | 27.2 | 28.5 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| SNP | 4 | 32.5 | 42.0 | 3 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
Seats: 1. Murdo Fraser (Con) 2. Bruce Crawford/Annabelle Ewing (SNP, depending on constituency seats) 3. Annabelle Ewing/Keith Brown (SNP, depending on constituency seats) 4. Elizabeth Smith (Con) 5. Douglas Chapman (SNP) 6. John Park (Lab) 7. Mark Ruskell (Green)
Same swings as Scenario 2.
Scenario 3: Labour win Stirling, Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, and Dunfermline.
| Party | Const. Seats | 2007 | U-Swing | Regional Members | Total Members | Change (from notionals) |
| Labour | 5 | 27.2 | 28.5 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| SNP | 3 | 32.5 | 42.0 | 4 | 7 | +1 |
| Conservatives | 0 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| Lib. Dems. | 1 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
Seats: 1. Murdo Fraser (Con) 2. Bruce Crawford (SNP) 3. Annabelle Ewing (SNP) 4. Keith Brown (SNP) 5. Elizabeth Smith (Con) 6. Douglas Chapman (SNP) 7. Mark Ruskell (Green).
Same swings as scenario 2.
Overall Summary
Good news for the SNP in all our projections – they are shown as gaining a seat overall in all our scenarios, even if they lose constituency seats. It’s not quite all bad for Labour, however – they remain stable, and losing constituency seats. The Conservatives lose a seat in all our projections, but polls often underestimate the party in Scottish Parliamentary elections. The Lib Dems are not compensated for the loss of Dunfermline in our projections and are in serious danger. The Green seat is REALLY closein our projections but if they don't get it it will go to the SNP rather than the Lib Dems.
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