National Assembly Elections 2011 : The Starting Gun

On Thursday, the National Assembly of Wales was formally dissolved (for the first time ever) as the ceremonial mace (donated to the Assembly by the Government of New South Wales, Australia) was paraded out of the Assembly Chamber by Rhodri Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff West) who is standing down from the Assembly after serving three terms as the Assembly member for the seat (1999 – 2011) and prior to that the Member of Parliament from 1987 to 2001 and by doing so, officially set the train of events into motion that will conclude with the fourth National Assembly elections on May 5^th 2011. And on the same day, a new You Gov poll was published which gave all of the parties things to consider prior to the close of nominations on Monday.

Constituency (and change on 2007): Labour 47% (+15%) Conservatives 21% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 17% (-5%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-7%) Others 7% (-2%)

Regional (and change on 2007): Labour 45% (+15%) Conservatives 20% (-1%) Plaid Cymru 16% (-5%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-4%) Others 11% (-5%)

Regional Others Breakdown (and change on 2007): United Kingdom Independence Party 6% (+2%) Greens 4% (+1%) Others 1% (-4%)

Constituency Swing: 8% from Conservative to Labour, 10% from Plaid Cymru to Labour

Regional Swing: 8% from Conservative to Labour, 10% from Plaid Cymru to Labour

So what impact would this have on the Assembly? On the constituency level there is one clear winner and that is Labour picking up eight seats across Wales (including their embarrassing loss of Blaenau Gwent) with the Conservatives picking up two (Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnorshire) however whilst Montgomeryshire can be considered a GAIN by the Conservatives, Brecon and Radnorshire is forecast to be won by only 198 votes (0.85%) and so therefore has to be placed into the Too close to call column (and that’s not the only seat either).

Labour wins too close to call: Cardiff Central (2.72% over Lib Dems), Aberconwy (2.95% over Plaid Cymru), Cardiff North (3.37% over Con), Preseli Pembrokeshire (4.55% over Con)

Conservative wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (0.85% over Lib Dems)

Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Arfon (0.36% over Lab), Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (4.66% over Lab), Ynys Môn (5.25% over Lab)

Now as the number of seats that each party wins affects the regional allocation it is much easier if we can say who is going to win a seat and past elections have shown a trend, namely when a sitting member stands down the vote belonging to that party is much lower than expectations, so looking at the candidates so far declared for all the seats I am going to call the above seats as follows:

Labour wins too close to call: Cardiff Central (Lab GAIN), Aberconwy (Labour GAIN), Cardiff North (Lab GAIN), Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab GAIN)

Conservative wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (Lib Dem HOLD)

Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Arfon (Plaid HOLD), Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Plaid HOLD), Ynys Môn (Plaid HOLD)

Which gives us a constituency tally of:

Labour 32 (+8)

Conservatives 2 (-3)

Plaid Cymru 5 (-2)

Liberal Democrats 1 (-2)

Which brings us to the regional list allocations. As we know the general rule of thumb is “If you do brilliantly well in the constituencies, expect to be hammered in the regional list” and sure enough Labour having gained eight seats on the constituency vote find it very hard indeed to win regional list seats

Regional List Allocations:

South Wales Central

Conservatives win the first seat (Andrew Davies AM re-elected)

Plaid Cymru win the second seat (Leanne Wood AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the third seat (David Melding AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the fourth seat (John Dixon elected)

Mid and West Wales

Conservatives win the first seat (Nick Bourne AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (Lisa Francis elected)

Labour win the third seat (Joyce Watson AM re-elected)

Plaid Cymru win the fourth seat (Simon Thomas elected)

North Wales

Conservatives win the first seat (Mark Isherwood AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (Brynle Williams AM re-elected)*

Conservatives win the third seat (Antoinette Sandbach elected)

Plaid Cymru win the fourth seat (Janet Ryder AM re-elected)

* Following the death of Brynle Williams on Friday, it is expected that Antoinette Sandbach will be moved up a place on the Conservative regional list nomination and the current fourth placed candidate will be moved into the third place with a new fourth candidate to be formally nominated on Monday

South Wales East

Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Jocelyn Davies AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the second seat (William Graham AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the third seat (Veronica German AM re-elected)

United Kingdom Independence Party win the fourth seat (Lead candidate elected)

South Wales West

Conservatives win the first seat (Suzy Davies elected)

Plaid Cymru win the second seat (Bethan Jenkins AM re-elected)

Liberal Democrats win the third seat (Peter Black AM re-elected)

Conservatives win the fourth seat (Bryon Davies elected)

Forecast Composition of the National Assembly:

Constituencies: Labour 32 Plaid Cymru 5 Conservatives 2 Liberal Democrats 1

Regional List: Conservatives 10 Plaid Cymru 5 Liberal Democrats 3 Labour 1 United Kingdom Independence Party 1

Overall Totals: Labour 33 Conservatives 12 Plaid Cymru 10 Liberal Democrats 4 United Kingdom Independence Party 1