Welsh Assembly Election: Initial Forecast

Having had a look at all forty constituencies and playing around with likely scenarios it's about time I released an initial forecast on the Welsh Assembly Election. Now, for consistency I set a cut off point for polling at the end of January and I haven't been influenced by any comments to our posts. Over the next week I will use the two new YouGov polls, which have shown Labour pulling further ahead and Plaid Cymru falling back behind the Conservatives, to work out a revised forecast.

The key problem with the polling at the moment is that only YouGov have done any. This does not compare well to Scotland where five different companies have conduced surveys. Obviously it's hardly surprising there is less interest in the Welsh election considering the result is looking like a forgone conclusion but one poll from another company would be nice to quell out any doubts about YouGov's potential 'house effects'. Perhaps we'll get one closer to the election.

Anyway, without further ado, here's the first forecast:

	2007	BV.co.uk
Labour	26	28-33
Plaid Cymru	15	12-15
Conservatives	12	10-13
Lib. Dems.	6	4-5
Independent	1	0

As expected Labour look certain to make gains at this election. They should pick up at least two seats by retaking Blaenau Gwent from the Independent Trish Law and increasing their regional vote. Plaid may struggle just to stand still, despite polling around 2007 levels, because they are set to lose regional seats as a knock on effect of Labour's rise. The Tories have also sat around their 2007 support but unlike Plaid they could end up with more seats. Although a few of their constituency seats are under threat from Labour these losses should be compensated in the regional list, usually at Plaid's expense. In addition they have an opportunity to take a seat from the Liberal Democrats in Montgomeryshire. Finally the Liberal Democrats are likely to lose seats but they should avoid a total wipeout. The margins are tight though as they are hovering just about the effective threshold for regional seats. A small drop in list vote share could cost them three seats.

Feel free to question the calls either here or on the constituencies own articles.

Here's how the forecast breaks down region by region:

Mid & West Wales

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Brecon & Radnorshire	LD Lean
Carmarthen E & Dinefwr	PC Safe
Carmarthen W & P'shire S	Too Close	CON/	LAB/	PC
Ceredigion	PC Lean
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	PC Safe
Llanelli	PC Lean
Montgomeryshire	Too Close	LD/	CON
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Too Close	CON/	LAB/

 

Regional
Safe	Contenders
1. Joyce Watson	1. Nick Bourne
	2. Mary Rees
	2. Lisa Francis
	3. Matthew Dorrance
	3. ?
	4. Rebecca Evans

North Wales

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Aberconwy	Too Close	PC/	CON/	LAB
Alyn & Deeside	LAB Safe
Arfon	PC Safe
Clwyd South	LAB Lean
Clwyd West	Too Close	CON/	LAB
Delyn	LAB Lean
Vale of Clwyd	LAB Lean
Wrexham	LAB Lean
Ynys Mons	PC Lean

 

Regional
Safe	Contenders
1. Mark Isherwood	2. Heledd Fychan
1. Llyr Huws Gruffydd	3. Antoinette Sandbach
2. Brynle Williams

South Wales Central

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Cardiff Central	Too Close	LD/	LAB
Cardiff North	Too Close	CON/	LAB
Cardiff South & Penarth	LAB Lean
Cardiff West	LAB Lean
Cynon Valley	LAB Safe
Pontypridd	Lab Lean
Rhondda	LAB Safe
Vale of Glamorgan	Lab Lean

 

Regional
Safe	Contenders
1. Leanne Wood	2. Chris Franks
1. Andrew Davies	2. David Melding
	1. John Dixon

South Wales East

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Blaenau Gwent	LAB Lean
Caerphilly	LAB Lean
Islwyn	LAB Lean
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	LAB Safe
Monmouth	CON Safe
Newport East	LAB Lean
Newport West	LAB Lean
Torfaen	LAB Safe

 

Regional

1. Jocelyn Davies

1. William Graham

1. Veronica German

2. Lindsay Whittle

South Wales West

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Aberavon	LAB Safe
Bridgend	LAB Safe
Gower	LAB Lean
Neath	LAB Lean
Ogmore	LAB Safe
Swansea East	LAB Safe
Swansea West	LAB Lean

 

Regional

1. Bethan Jenkins

1. Suzy Davies

1. Peter Black

2. Dai Lloyd

 

Nb. To clarify, in the regional breakdowns I have only classed a candidate as safe if they won a seat under every tested scenario. For example, Conservative leader Nick Bourne isn't classed as safe because if his party hold the two seats they are defending and gain Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats he is then at risk. He would have been elected in 9 of the 10 scenarios tested though, so I'm pretty sure he'll be fine!