Here comes a wave of Labour safe seats. I’ll be surprised if any of these come close to changing hands. If they do we’ll be waking up to a Tory majority of 150, which clearly isn’t going to happen. So instead, I’ll tell you a little about the predicted victors.
| Constituency | Incumbent | Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction |
| Leigh | Andy Burnham | 15,098 | 19.4% | 1/100 | LAB Hold |
| Makerfield |
| 17,903 | 24.2% | 1/500 | LAB Hold |
| Wigan |
| 15,501 | 19.6% | 1/100 | LAB Hold |
Andy Burnham is Secretary of State for Health. Here he is. He’ll hold Leigh constituency easily. Chris Blackburn might make some headway, but nowhere near the 39% that Burnham is notionally ahead. LAB Hold.
Ian McCartney announced he would stand down at the election and Yvonne Fovargue will contest it for Labour. They are almost eighteen thousand-votes notionally ahead in Makerfield. Tory PPC Itrat Ali needs a gigantic 24.2% swing from Fovargue’s Labour support to take this. Not a chance. LAB Hold.
Lisa Nandy will substitute Neil Turner to hold Wigan, as he is another Labour MP to stand down at the election. Labour HQ parachuted in Nandy, to local parties dismay. But she’s the bookie’s favourite at 1/100. LAB Hold.
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