We've completed our seat by seat analysis of the UK and this is the result! We apologise to any Northern Ireland readers. We only have excuses for missing the country out. They include running out of time and none of us know a great deal about NI politics (especially not to predict 4-way marginals!).
Conservatives | Labour | Lib Dems | Others | |||||||||||
Region | 2005 | Prediction | 2005 | Prediction | 2005 | Prediction | 2005 | Prediction | ||||||
42 | +8 | 50 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
21 | +11 | 32 | 44 | -14 | 30 | 7 | +4 | 11 | 1 | -1 | 0 | RSP | ||
19 | +12 | 31 | 37 | -17 | 20 | 2 | +5 | 7 | 1 | - | 1 | IND | ||
19 | +12 | 31 | 26 | -15 | 11 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
1 | +2 | 3 | 27 | -6 | 21 | 1 | +4 | 5 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
9 | +8 | 17 | 41 | -12 | 29 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
9 | +17 | 26 | 61 | -23 | 38 | 5 | +5 | 11 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
1 | +1 | 2 | 41 | -7 | 34 | 11 | +4 | 15 | 6 | +2 | 8 | SNP | ||
3 | +4 | 7 | 30 | -6 | 24 | 4 | +1 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 4 | PC | IND | |
61 | +11 | 72 | 17 | -14 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 1 | GRN | ||
25 | +4 | 29 | 12 | -6 | 6 | 18 | +2 | 20 | 0 | - | 0 | |||
210 | +90 | 300 | 349 | -130 | 219 | 62 | +36 | 98 | 11 | +3 | 14 | |||
We're going to sleep now and we'll be back in the afternoon to do some analysis on this and many other things (I think we're all looking forward to writing something fun!)
Any descrency between our 'pages' and our 'posts' are because we've got ahead of ourselves. They should be ironed out during the day. Our projection is set now and we'll live and die by it! :-D
ReplyDeleteReally off for a nap now...zzzzzzz
We'll live or die by it +/- 5% ;-)
ReplyDeletegood effort babes
ReplyDeleteI reckon the most likely outcome from this is a Conservative minority government.
ReplyDelete+/- 5% = 30ish seats. Sounds fair! Conservatives definately the largest party but they could sneak a majority...probably need the Unionists though (and maybe Welsh & Scotish nationalists on votes of confidence).
ReplyDeleteUnionists and Welsh and Scottish nationalists may be a problem. They will not accept huge cuts in their regions, meaning the Tories will end up going against one of their key election promises (reform of the Barnett formula) and will have to cut even deeper in England...
ReplyDeleteGood work! Though 5% error is +/-15 seats for the Conservatives (and +/-11 for Labour) which would predict 285-315 for them and considerably more than the latest polls (placing them at a max of 294). I know we've judged each seat by also taking into consideration local issues, which leads me to wonder, to what extent can these really favour the Conservatives and, more importantly, what influence would they have in the hope of a PR system...
ReplyDeleteStill, even with the error we're aknowledging, the Tories are short of a majority so fingers crossed for electoral reform (219 Labour + 98 Lib Dem and anothe 9 from... well, nationalists or NI) would make political history!