A Look @: Bury

Constituency	Incumbent	Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Bury North	David Chaytor	2,059	2.5%	1/16	CON Gain
Bury South	Ivan Lewis	9,779	11.4%	1/4	LAB Hold

Bury North is Tory target seat 48. I’m pretty certain David Nuttall will snatch this one from Labour. David Chaytor is standing down. He has been charged with false accounting by the DPP in light of the expenses scandal. I don’t think Nuttal will make huge gains in terms of votes. More likely that Maryam Khan (Labour PPC) will struggle convince enough Labour voters to turn up on polling day. I do think this one will be close. Certainly one of my one’s to watch. But I have to call it now, so CON Gain.

To be honest I had no idea who Ivan Lewis was, and I’m doing this website for fun! So I doubt that the vast majority of Bury South voters will be looking for his name on the ballot paper, which doesn’t say much for his personal vote. More likely they’ll be searching for the red rose of New Labour. I expect the vast majority of votes for this seat to be decided on national party affiliations and Labour are ten thousand-votes ahead notionally in the constituency. Regional swing data indicates that Lewis has enough support to absorb the inevitable dip in Labour votes. LAB Hold.