Wednesday, 5 May 2010

A Look @: Manchester, Salford & Trafford

Constituency

Incumbent

Majority

Swing Needed

Favourite

Prediction

Altrincham & Sale West

Graham Brady

7,618

8.8%

1/50

CON Hold

Blackley & Broughton

Graham Stringer

13,060

21.7%

1/500

LAB Hold

Manchester Central

Tony Lloyd

11,636

19.2%

1/500

LAB Hold

Manchester Gorton

Gerald Kaufman

6,355

9.8%

4/7

LIB Gain

Manchester Withington

John Leech

531

0.7%

1/10

LIB Hold

Salford & Eccles

Hazel Blears

10,707

16.3%

1/6

LAB Hold

Stretford & Urmston

Beverley Hughes

8,310

10.6%

2/7

LAB Hold

Worsley & Eccles South

Barbara Keeley

10,001

12.8%

2/7

LAB Hold

Wythenshawe & Sale East

Paul Goggins

10,827

15.0%

1/33

LAB Hold

Altrincham & Sale West constituency sits Tory MP Graham Brady. He has slowly gathered momentum in his constituency, and now commands over a seven and a half thousand-vote lead that will grow significantly this year, despite breaking a few rules at Westminster. CON Hold.

Next up are two Labour safe seats. MP’s Graham Stringer and Tony Lloyd are both the bookies favourite to defend their constituencies of Blackley & Broughton and Manchester Central respectively. Both 1/500. The Lib Dems are a fair way off from these seats. The Tories have no hope. Both LAB Holds.

Regional polls suggest that there could be a 9.5% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems in the North West. This data suggests that seats such as Manchester Gorton are now wide open. Gerald Kaufman (Labour MP) will struggle against Qassim Afzal (Lib Dem PPC). Maybe he should have left that rug & TV? I think this will be one to watch. But Afzal will take this. LIB Gain.

Manchester Withington sits Lib Dem MP John Leech. He may have a small notional majority but as I’ve said previously, momentum in the North West is firmly with the Lib Dems. So it’s difficult to suggest that Lucy Powell (Labour PPC) has a realistic chance. The notion of Labour having ‘target seats’ is simply out of mathematical courtesy than a suggestion that Labour are thinking about making serious gains. But its number 15 for team Brown. They won’t get it. LIB Hold.

Hazel Blears has been campaigning to hold Salford & Eccles for a little while now. Ever she ‘rocked the boat’ in 2009. She believes that there’s no substitute for knocking on doors, using the infamous line ‘YouTube if you want to’ on the Guardian’s comment is free. That’s easy for her to say. She won’t have to knock on that many doors, she’s in a safe seat. LAB Hold.

Beverley Hughes is standing down at the election. So Labour’s Kate Green will win Stretford & Urmston. This seat is 199 on the Tory target list. Out of reach for anyone other than a ‘big hitter’. Not seeing that in Alex Williams (Tory PPC). Green will take this. LAB Hold.

Barbara Keeley will hold Worsley & Eccles South, she is notionally ten thousand-votes ahead. Meaning that only a 13% swing to the Tories will unseat her. Most unlikely in the current political climate. LAB Hold.

Wythenshawe & Sale East sits Labour MP Paul Goggins. He probably should have claimed a few less things but he won’t care because he’s safe on May 6th. LAB Hold.

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