A Look @: Dudley, Sandwell & Wolverhampton

Boundary alterations have left Dudley, Sandwell & Wolverhampton fairly clear-cut in terms of deciding who and how much they gain. Of the ten seats here, 5 are safe Labour seats and 5 are marginals. No real competition from the Lib Dems in any. So forgive me for being brief, but as you’ll see, these are pretty obvious calls.

Constituency	Incumbent	Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Dudley North	Ian Austin	4,106	5.6%	2/5	CON Gain
Dudley South	Ian Pearson	3,222	4.5%	1/6	CON Gain
Halesowen & Rowley Regis	Sylvia Heal	4,010	4.8%	1/4	CON Gain
Stourbridge	Lynda Waltho	1,280	1.5%	1/16	CON Gain
Warley	John Spellar	11,206	16.0%	1/14	LAB Hold
West Bromwich East	Tom Watson	11,947	16.5%	1/20	LAB Hold
West Bromwich West	Adrian Bailey	9,821	15.5%	1/20	LAB Hold
Wolverhampton North East	Ken Purchase	8,628	12.6%	2/7	LAB Hold
Wolverhampton South East	Patrick McFadden	12,309	18.3%	1/16	LAB Hold
Wolverhampton South West	Rob Marris	2,114	2.7%	1/8	CON Gain

Dudley North sits Labour MP Ian Austin. His seat is Tory target number 103 and is neatly well within the current LAB to CON swing. Graeme Brown will take this. CON Gain.

Ian Pearson not stand for Tory target seat number 73 this year. Instead Labour PPC Rachel Harris will fail to defend Dudley South for Labour. Tory PPC Chris Kelly is within a 4.5% swing, which will be easy on the current West Midlands regional swing. CON Gain.

Sylvia heal is another Labour MP standing down. Halesowen & Rowley Regis is a similar seat to Dudley South in terms of its size and party support. Therefore it should run the same. The Tory candidate, James Morris will, likely pip Sue Hayman Labour PPC, to the post. CON Gain.

Stourbridge is will be the easiest victory for the Tories in this post. Lynda Waltho (Labour MP) is defending a small one thousand two hundred-vote notional majority. Tory Margot James will take this, and some. CON Gain.

Warley Sits John Spellar. He’s got a 32% buffer to keep him safe on 6^th May. Jas Parmar (Tory PPC) obviously wasn’t in line for a competitive seat this year, next time maybe. LAB Hold.

Remember Tom Watson? This was Tom Watson…. and this too. He sits for West Bromwich East. I’m not saying he did but there was this. It’s unlikely those events will affect the result. He’ll win because there are twelve thousand more Labour voters notionally than for any other party. LAB Hold.

Adrian Bailey sits in another Labour safe seat. Turnout for West Bromwich West may have been poor in 2005 (51.6%), but there’s no evidence to suggest that Bailey suffer at the hands of Tory supporters in the expected turnout surge, especially as he’s notionally ahead 31%. LAB Hold.

Ken Purchase is another Labour MP to stand down at the Election. So Emma Reynolds will be parachuted in by Labour HQ to lead their defense of Wolverhampton North East. Reynolds campaign will likely involve reminding voters that she worked for Geoff Hoon, and knows senior ministers. That’ll probably be enough to hold, but I expect Julie Rook (Tory PPC) to put up a good fight. LAB Hold.

Patrick McFadden has the largest notional majority in the area. With almost twelve and a half thousand more supporters than any other, McFadden will surely hold Wolverhampton South East. Ken Wood should probably just get an early night on polling day. LAB Hold.

Rob Marris is Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East, but not for much longer. Paul Uppal will take this. Marris has a small notional majority and might come across as a bit arrogant for his ‘unconventional’ route to a bus. But it’s insignificant to other factors. He’ll lose this on Tory momentum in the region regardless. CON Gain.