A Look @: Plymouth [update]

The South West as a region is certainly not a Labour heartland, but they do hold both seats Plymouth. However, the Conservatives took control of the City Council in 2007 and have made consistent gains here in every local election held in the city since the last General Election. But UKIP enjoy a good deal of support in the South West and the 10% they should poll well in both Plymouth seats which could harm the Tories' chances.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority		Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Plymouth S + D	Linda Gilroy	4,472		5.6%	8/15	LAB Hold
Plymouth MV	Alison Seabeck	7,740		9.7%	1/2	LAB Hold

 

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is the one to watch here, which happens to be the constituency Britian-Votes.co.uk is based. Linda Gilroy was barely caught up in the expenses scandal but had to repay £2,000 relating to council tax claims. The Tories are fielding Oliver Colville for the third time here and although he lost votes in 2005 he'll have to fancy his chances this year. The Liberal Democrats were the beneficiaries at the last General Election when they increased their vote by 8.4%. But their candidate in 2005, Karen Gillard, has had something of a promotion to contest the South East Cornwall Colin Breed has vacated. Their cause hasn't been helped by infighting as Gillard's replacement, Judy Evans, had a disagreement with the local party chairman forcing the Plymouth branch of the Lib Dems to be shut down. The Council split is pretty even in this constituency and it appears the regional LAB>CON swing is going to be quite low. I expect it to but at least national swing though so this really will go down to the wire, and I think UKIP's strength will be a problem for Colville and so Gilroy could just survive; Labour Hold.

Labour have a much better prospects in Plymouth's other constituency, Moor View. Alison Seabeck is ending her first term in a seat Labour have held since former SDP leader David Owen retired in 1992. Seabeck enjoys one of the biggest Labour majorities in the South West and has remained unscathed from the expenses scandal. The Conservatives have selected Matthew Groves, a councillor in Surrey, and the Liberal Democrats are running local man Stuart Bonar. I'd be surprised if either unseat Seabeck; Labour Hold.

 

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