A Look @: Lancashire (Part III)

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	6,473	6.8%	1/50	CON Hold
Rossendale and Darwen	Janet Anderson	3,752	4.3%	1/5	CON Gain
South Ribble	David Borrow	2,686	2.9%	1/8	CON Gain
West Lancashire	Rosie Cooper	6,084	7.1%	4/6	CON Gain
Wyre and Preston North	New Seat	14,567	14.4%	1/200	CON Hold

Ribble Valley is held by Nigel Evans for the Conservatives. While boundary changes have reduced his notional majority, Evans came off quite well in the expenses scandal and should cruise to re-election pretty much unhindered.

Rossendale and Darwen is held by Janet Anderson. Between extremely damaging expenses and a majority that was thin enough to be likely to be Conservative on uniform national swing alone, Anderson's days appear numbered to be. A conservative gain for Tory candidate Jake Berry.

South Ribble was one of the many seats that went from Conservative to Labour in 1997. Like Janet Anderson David Borrow suffers from a combination of a majority that would be expecting to switch to the Conservatives in this election anyway and horrible expenses (8^th highest in the UK). An almost certain Conservative hold.

West Lancashire is the home of Rosie Cooper, who spent 31 years as a Liberal Democrat. She may regret making the switch to Labour now! Cooper claimed £915 for legal fees and survey costs for a property she didn't buy. I doubt such a minor claim will have a massive effect however. Conservative candidate Adrian Owens is a councillor who has previously stood in South Ribble. West Lancashire borough council currently has 20 Conservative and 13 Labour councillors. This one is just going to come down to the wire, but I think it will probably go Conservative.

Wyre and Preston North is a new seat. Former Lancaster and Wyre Conservative MP Ben Wallace is standing here, despite the majority of his former seat being in the notionally Labour Lancaster and and Fleetwood. Despite Wallace's troubles with expenses, Wallace's notional majority is more than large enough to assure victory. Conservative Hold.