Thursday, 6 May 2010

A Look @ Bournemouth and Poole [update]

Bournemouth and Poole have had their own unitary authorities since 1997. Both hold elections for the entire council every four years with the last taking place in 2007. Bournemouth boasts the larger of the two authorities with 54 elected councillors. At the last election the Conservatives scored a big victory, wresting control of the council from the Liberal Democrats. 23 seats orange seats turned blue and this has been attributed to, amongst other things, the Lib Dems support for a town centre casino. The Tories also control Poole council but they lost one seat in 2007 to the Liberal Democrats, who are the only other party represented. This is good news for the only Lib Dem MP in Dorset, Annettee Brooke, whose constituency straddles the Poole and Dorset council boundaries.



Notional Majority

Swing Needed



Dorset Mid & Poole N

Annette Brooke




LD Hold

Bournemouth West

Sir John Butterfill




CON Hold

Bournemouth East

Tobias Ellwood




CON Hold


Robert Syms




CON Hold


Annette Brooke has a tough fight on her hands to hold onto her seat but being the only Lib Dem in the county does have its advantages. With the party on the defensive against the Conservatives in rural areas Brooke can expect a lot of support to hold Mid Dorset & Poole North. The down side of this is that the Lib Dems are going to struggle make gains locally but given the strength of the Tories this year holding on for dear life is probably the best option. Brooke has held her seat since it was created in 1997 and has been relatively unscathed in the expenses row. On the political side a 5,000 majority is certainly defendable against the Tories, who are running businessman Nick King. Current polling would suggest Brooke is going to be fine; Lib Dem Hold.

Bournemouth West has been left open by Sir John Butterfield. It was created in 1950 and has always returned a Conservative MP. Former Times correspondent Alasdair Murray is hoping to cause an upset for Liberal Democrats. They have selected Connor Burns as their candidate and he'll be optimistic his third run for Parliament will be the lucky one. He has contested Chris Huhne's Eastleigh constituency in the last two elections and ran the Lib Dem Home Affairs Spokesman very close in 2005. The Conservatives dominate in the local council elections here and I think this will give them edge in this tight battle; Tory Hold.

Bournemouth East has been the Conservative's since its creation in 1974. However, the current MP Tobias Ellwood got into a spot of bother with his expenses which included claims for roof repairs and curtains but compared to some this won't look too bad. Ellwood should win a second term without a problem; Tory Hold.

The Conservatives have held Poole since the seat was established in 1950. Robert Syms has a 6,000 vote majority which should prove too much to overturn; Tory Hold.


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