Constituency | Incumbent | Notional Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction |
Cheltenham | Martin Horwood | 316 | 0.4% | 1/2 | LD Hold |
Cotswolds | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 10,742 | 10.7% | 1/500 | CON Hold |
Tewkesbury | Laurence Robertson | 9,130 | 9.9% | 1/100 | CON Hold |
Cheltenham is target seat number 10 for the conservatives. R&T put the boundary change at around 13% meaning that Martin Horwood can thank the commission for trimming his 2,303 majority to just 316. Although Horwood came out relatively unscathed from the expenses scandal, a swing of just 0.4% to the Tory PPC Mark Coote would have been simple enough for Coote, but current regional polls suggest that Horwood will increase his majority as momentum is moving from Tories to Lib Dems at a rate of 5%. LIB Hold.
Cotswolds is firmly Tory. R&T put the boundary change at less than 6%, so nothing short of a political kamikaze from Geoffrey Clinton-Brown will budge this Tory frontbencher in May. CON Hold.
Tewkesbury has had a 23% boundary alteration according to R&T, meaning that the Tory MP Laurence Robertson has a slightly reduced majority to just under 20%. A 10% swing away from the Tories isn't foreseeable here. CON Hold
Michael Turner
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