As far as it is possible we will discuss groups of constituencies within local council areas. For instance, we have split Somerset into three parts; Somerset, North Somerset and North East Somerset and Bath. We'll then provide the important information in the following table.
Constituency | Incumbent | Notional Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction | |
Dorset South | Jim Knight | 1,812 | 1.9% | 1/8 | CON Gain | |
Dorset West | Oliver Letwin | 2,461 | 2.4% | 3/10 | LD Gain | |
Dorset North | Robert Walter | 4,200 | 4.3% | 3/10 | CON Hold | |
Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 14,640 | 15.7% | 1/200 | CON Hold | |
This is fairly self explanatory. The incumbent has his/her party's colour as their background; Labour = Red, Conservatives = Blue, Liberal Democrats = Orange. A line through their name denotes that they are not standing for re-election. The notional majorities are Rallings and Thrasher's. The colour behind the swing and favourite column's show which party needs the quoted swing and which party is the favourite. A darker colour will be used in the Prediction to highlight that we feel the seat will change hands.
We will then discuss the close races in the seats looked at in the post to explain our prediction. We'll be looking at local and personal factors that could affect the constituency in addition to the national factors. These include, but are not limited to scandals, with expenses the most prominent, and the candidates' credentials.
The 'One to Watch' [O2W] symbol on our regional pages indicates the seats we think will be tight on May 6th.
