| Constituency | Incumbent | Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction |
| Bolton North East | David Crausby | 4,527 | 6.0% | 2/5 | LAB Hold |
| Bolton South East |
| 11,483 | 16.5% | 1/12 | LAB Hold |
| Bolton West |
| 5,041 | 6.0% | 2/7 | CON Gain |
Bolton North East is Tory target seat number 93. But the challenge is harder here it seems. David Crausby is popular locally. He’s described as a member who concentrates on local issues. So I imagine that a 6% swing in this seat will be very difficult for Deborah Dunleavy (CON PPC). Probably too much. Remember, that only some national polls suggest a slightly higher CON to LAB swing, and they are grossly inaccurate in regions such as the West Midlands. Definitely one to watch. LAB Hold.
Bolton South East will not be contested by Brian Iddon (Labour MP), Yasmin Qureshi will hold this for Labour though. The swing needed is far too great and Brian Iddon was a popular local politician. So I imagine that Iddon will be out there with Qureshi ensuring that LAB Hold.
Bolton West will not see Ruth Kelly contesting for re-election this year. Shame, there were some good times. But Julie Hilling (LAB PPC) will be fighting hard against Jackie Pearcey (LIB PPC) and Susan Williams (CON PPC). I think Williams will take this just. I can’t discount Pearcey because of the regional swing is so great for the Lib Dems in the region; it actually puts them in real contention. The problem for Pearcey is that the Lib Dem surge is fairly soft; she really needs to steal Tory as well as from Labour. If she takes too much Labour support without eating into the Tory vote, then all her hard work will just gift victory to Williams. Local debates have been fierce. But for the sheer challenge ahead of Pearcey I have to go for a CON Gain.
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