A Look @: Coventry & Solihull

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Coventry NE	Bob Ainsworth	14,621	19%	1/100	LAB Hold
Coventry NW	Geoffrey Robinson	8,934	10.7%	1/3	LAB Hold
Coventry S	Jim Cunningham	6,237	7.6%	5/6	CON Gain
Meriden	Caroline Spelman	7,412	7.7%	1/500	CON Hold
Solihull	Lorely Burt	-124	0.2%	5/6	LD Hold

The Secretary of State for Defence, Bob Ainsworth sits for Coventry North East. He's the one who prematurely blurted out the date for the election, and is almost fifteen thousand-votes notionally ahead of his rivals. Can't see this one changing hands. LAB Hold.

Geoffrey Robinson is an interesting chap. Leant Mandleson £370,000; was Chairman of Coventry City Football Club and Jaguar. Not sure what he's doing now, but he'll hold Coventry North West. 10.7% swing is too much for Gary Ridley (Tory PPC) to overcome. LAB Hold.

Labour MP Jim Cunningham sits for Coventry South. The Tories say that seats such as Cunningham's have recently become attainable thanks to the polls going mental over the past 3-4 weeks. The logic is that voters moving LAB to LIB are, in particular seats, lowering the swing needed for Tory contenders. Lib Dem support in those seats is essentially too low to mount a significant threat. So because Brian Patton (Lib Dem PPC) doesn't represent a serious threat to take the Coventry South, any LAB to LIB movement electorally will work to Kevin Foster's (Tory PPC) benefit. CON Gain.

Meriden has strong Tory support. The notionals are suggesting around seven and a half thousand-votes more than anyone else, and that's before regional swings and latest national opinion polls. Caroline Spelman did face questions over her 2^nd home allowance and expenses
claims, but I doubt it'll do any significant damage to her campaign this year. CON Hold.

Lorely Burt is the Lib Dem MP sitting for Solihull, which is now notionally Tory thanks to the boundary alterations this year. Maggie Throup is the Tory PPC who I believe will struggle in this tight contest. Caroline Spelman might inadvertently initiate a small 'anti-tory/anti-old boys' club movement in Solihull. Just enough to keep ensure that Throup has no chance. LIB Hold.

 

Michael Turner