GE2010: Scotland and Wales

Here is a summary of our Scotland and Wales predictions. If you'd like to find out more about the 'Look @' format follow this link. If you'd like to see how we arrived at any predictions then click on the 'County' link and it will take you to the post discussing that constituency.

Scotland
Party	BV	Actual
CON	2	1
LAB	34	41
LD	15	11
SNP	8	6

 

Wales
Party	BV	Actual
CON	7	8
LAB	24	26
LD	5	3
PC	4	3
IND	0	0

 

Scotland
Constituency	Council	Current MP		Prediction	Actual
Aberdeen North	Aberdeenshire	Frank Doran		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Aberdeen South	Aberdeenshire	Anne Begg		LD Gain	LAB Hold
Banff & Buchan	Aberdeenshire	Alex Salmond		SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Gordon	Aberdeenshire	Malcolm Bruce		LD Hold	LD Hold
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine	Aberdeenshire	Robert Smith		LD Hold	LD Hold
Angus	Angus and Dundee	Michael Weir		SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Dundee East	Angus and Dundee	Stewart Hosie		SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Dundee West	Angus and Dundee	James McGovern		SNP Gain	LAB Hold
Argyll and Bute	Argyll and Bute	Alan Reid		LD Hold	LD Hold
West Dunbartonshire	West Dunbartonshire	John McFall		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	Ayrshire	Sandra Osbourne		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Central Ayrshire	Ayrshire	Brian Donohue		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	Ayrshire	Des Browne		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
North Ayrshire & Arran	Ayrshire	Katy Clark		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Perth & North Perthshire	Perth and Kinross	Pete Wishart		SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Ochil & South Perthshire	Clackmannanshire and Perth & Kinross	Gordon Banks		SNP Gain	LAB Hold
Stirling	Stirling	Anne McGuire		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Dumfries & Galloway	Dumfries and Galloway	Russell Brown		CON Gain	LAB Hold
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdle & Tweeddale	Dum' and G'way, Scot Bord and S L'shire	David Mundell		CON Hold	CON Hold
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	Scottish Borders	Michael Moore		LD Hold	LD Hold
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	South Lanarkshire	Adam Ingram		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Lanark & Hamilton East	South Lanarkshire	Jimmy Hood		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Rutherglen & Hamilton East	South Lanarkshire	Tommy McAvoy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Airdrie & Shotts	North Lanarkshire	John Reid		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	North Lanarkshire	Thomas Clarke		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Motherwell & Wishaw	North Lanarkshire	Frank Roy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch E	East Dun'shire and North L'shire	Rosemary McKenna		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
East Dunbartonshire	East Dunbartonshire	Jo Swinson		LD Hold	LD Hold
East Lothian	East Lothian and Midlothian	Anne Moffat		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Midlothian	East Lothian and Midlothian	David Hamilton		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Edinburgh East	Edinburgh	Gavin Strang		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Edinburgh North & Leith	Edinburgh	Mark Lazarowicz		LD Gain	LAB Hold
Edinburgh South	Edinburgh	Nigel Griffiths		LD Gain	LAB Hold
Edinburgh South West	Edinburgh	Alistair Darling		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Edinburgh West	Edinburgh	John Barrett		LD Hold	LD Hold
Falkirk	Falkirk and West Lothian	Eric Joyce		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Linlithgow & East Falkirk	Falkirk and West Lothian	Michael Connarty		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Livingston	Falkirk and West Lothian	Jim Devine		SNP Gain	LAB Hold
Dunfermline West & Fife	Fife	Willie Rennie		LD Gain	LAB Hold
Glenrothes	Fife	Lindsay Roy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	Fife	Gordon Brown		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
North East Fife	Fife	Ming' Campbell		LD Hold	LD Hold
Glasgow Central	Glasgow	Mohammad Sarwar		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow East	Glasgow	John Mason		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow North	Glasgow	Ann McKechin		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow North East	Glasgow	Willie Bain		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow North West	Glasgow	John Robertson		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow South	Glasgow	Tom Harris		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Glasgow South West	Glasgow	Ian Davidson		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	Highlands	John Thurso		LD Hold	LD Hold
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	Highlands	Danny Alexander		LD Hold	LD Hold
Ross, Skye & Lochaber	Highlands	Charles Kennedy		LD Hold	LD Hold
Moray	Moray	Angus Robertson		SNP Hold	SNP Hold
Inverclyde	Inverclyde	David Cairns		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Paisley & Renfrewshire North	Renfrewshire	James Sheridan		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Paisley & Renfrewshire South	Renfrewshire	Douglas Alexander		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Renfrewshire East	East Renfrewshire	Jim Murphy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	Scottish Islands	Angus MacNeil		LAB Gain	SNP Hold
Orkney & Shetland	Scottish Islands	Alistair Carmichael		LD Hold	LD Hold

 

Wales
Constituency	Council	Incumbent		Prediction	Actual
Aberconwy	Conwy	Betty Williams		CON Gain	CON Gain
Clwyd West	Conwy and D'shire	David Jones		CON Hold	CON Hold
Vale of Clwyd	Denbighshire	Chris Ruane		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Clwyd South	Wrexham and D'shire	Martyn Jones		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Wrexham	Wrexham	Ian Lucas		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Alyn & Deeside	Flintshire	Mark Tami		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Delyn	Flintshire	David Hanson		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Ceredigion	Ceredigion	Mark Williams		LD Hold	LD Hold
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr	Carmarthenshire	Adam Price		PC Hold	PC Hold
Llanelli	Carmarthenshire	Nia Griffith		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire	Pem'shire and Car'shire	Nick Ainger		CON Gain	CON Gain
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb		CON Hold	CON Hold
Bridgend	Bridgend	Madeleine Moon		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Ogmore	B'end and Rhondda C T	Huw Irranca-Davies		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Cynon Valley	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ann Clwyd		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Pontypridd	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Kim Howells		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Rhondda	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Chris Bryant		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of Glamorgan	John Smith		CON Gain	CON Gain
Cardiff South & Penarth	C'diff & V of G'gan	Alun Michael		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Cardiff Central	Cardiff	Jenny Willott		LD Hold	LD Hold
Cardiff North	Cardiff	Julie Morgan		CON Gain	CON Gain
Cardiff West	Cardiff	Kevin Brennan		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Aberavon	Neath Port Talbot	Hywel Francis		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Neath	Neath Port Talbot	Peter Hain		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Gower	Swansea	Martin Caton		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Swansea East	Swansea	Sian James		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Swansea West	Swansea	Alan William		LD Gain	LAB Hold
Blaenau Gwent	Blaenau Gwent	Dai Davies		LAB Gain	LAB Gain
Caerphilly	Caerphilly	Wayne David		Lab Hold	Lab Hold
Islwyn	Caerphilly	Don Touhig		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	Merthyr T and C'philly	Dai Havard		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Monmouth	Mounmouthshire	David Davies		CON Hold	CON Hold
Newport East	Newport	Jessica Morden		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Newport West	Newport	Paul Flynn		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Torfaen	Torfaen	Paul Murphy		LAB Hold	LAB Hold
Arfon	Gwynedd	Hywel Williams		PC Gain	PC Gain
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Gwynedd	Elfyn Llywd		PC Hold	PC Hold
Ynys Môns	Anglesey	Albert Owen		PC Gain	LAB Hold
Brecon and Radnorshire	Powys	Roger Williams		LD Hold	LD Hold
Montgomeryshire	Powys	Lembit Öpik		LD Hold	CON Gain

 

Nb. Willie Rennie (Dunfermline West & Fife) and John Mason (Glasgow East) both won their seats off Labour in by-elections. In Arfon the boundary changes switched the notional 2005 winner from Plaid Cymru to Labour.