Constituency | Incumbent | Notional Majority | Swing Needed | Favourite | Prediction |
Heywood & Middleton | Jim Dobbin | 11,034 | 13.3% | 1/20 | LAB Hold |
Rochdale | Paul Rowen | -149 | 0.2% | 1/8 | LD Hold |
Heywood & Middleton sits Jim Dobbin. He's over eleven thousand-votes notionally ahead of the Tories here. That should be enough to ride out this and the ten point dip of Labour support in the region. LAB Hold.
The boundary alterations for Rochdale have meant that Lib Dem MP Paul Rowen finds himself in a seat that is notionally Labour on the adjusted 2005 figures from R&T. So my advice for Simon Danczuk (Labour PPC), is enjoy the moment. Rowen will hold this. LIB Hold.
Michael Turner
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