A Look @: Cheshire West and Chester

Chester West and Chester is more Labour-friendly than Cheshire East. The one Conservative constituency here is not entirely within the unitary authority and crosses across local government lines. Weaver Vale also crosses local government lines, into Halton. The election result in 2008 returned 55 Conservative, 13 Labour and 4 Lib Dem councils.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
City of Chester	Christine Russell	813	0.9%	1/10	CON Gain
Eddisbury	Stephen O'Brien	6,503	7.6%	1/500	CON Hold
Ellesmere Port and Neston	Andrew Miller	6,612	7.8%	8/11	LAB Hold
Weaver Vale	Mike Hall	4,750	6.4%	1/50	CON Gain

The City of Chester constituency is held by Christine Russell. At the 2005 election she won a majority of 915. To make matters worse boundary changes reduced this by 102 votes! A former Chester councillor, Russell's thin majority has been made will not have been improved by being told she has to repay more than four thousand pounds in expenses. Russell's opponent is Cheshire councillor Stephen Mosley. Considering the tiny majority and Russell's expenses Mosley has to be a shoo-in. Conservative gain.

Eddisbury cuts across local government lines. It is the only Conservative held seat here, but it is relatively safe having been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1983. O'Brien's expenses are reasonable and there appears to be little sign of a breakthrough for anyone else. An almost certain Conservative hold.

Ellesmere Port and Neston is held by Andrew Miller for Labour, who has been the MP since 1992. Miller's expenses appear in order. Conservative candidate Stuart Penketh is a councillor and geologist. The local government councillors break down as 11 Conservatives and 7 Labour members. However these were all elected in 2008 when Labour was at its lowest ebb and local elections tend to be bad for governing parties as it is. Miller seems to be a solid MP and the 7.8% swing needed for the Tories to win here looks out of reach for the Conservatives here. Labour hold.

Mike Hall is stepping down as MP of Weaver Vale this year for 'health reasons'. This is slightly surprising as he claimed £15,000 in cleaning supplies which as the Telegraph put it makes him the "cleanest in Westminster". As a high profile example of the expenses scandal this seat is being heavily contested. As well as Greens, UKIP and the BNP, three independents are standing here, none stand a particular chance of winning, though they could have a spoiler effect. Nonetheless this is primarily a fight between Labour candidate John Stockton, a teacher and councillor from Halton and Conservative candidate Graham Evans, a local councillor from Macclesfield. Normally a seat like this would be on a knife-edge, but the expenses situation is enough to make it close to a dead cert. Conservative Gain.