Friday 22 April 2011

Not Another Revised Welsh Forecast!

I'm not going to do a full revision of the Welsh Forecast until just before Election, by which time I'm hoping another established polling company other than YouGov will have conducted a survey. That's not to say that I think YouGov are wrong but you can see in the Scottish polling that slight variations can make a big difference to the final outcome AMS elections, so it would be nice to have two companies to compare. In Scotland the key issue at the moment is how close the Scottish Nationalists can get to the magical majority figure of 65. In Wales it is how large Labour's majority will be. A few points either way could give Labour a majority of 2 or 10 seats, which would clearly make a big difference to what they could achieve in the five year term.

So, if this isn't a revised Welsh Forecast then what is it?! Well, it's more of a discussion on how last week's YouGov poll would affect the Revised Forecast I did 10 days ago. We have also received some comments, both public and private, on the state of certain constituency races which have influenced me a bit, especially if a few sources from different parties are saying the same thing!

In the revised forecast I didn't leave that many seats Too Close. With 3 ½ weeks to go I considered only five seats to have no clear favourite so it's worth having another look at those.

Constituency

Initial

Revised

  

  

Llanelli

PC Lean

Too Close

PC/

LAB

 

Montgomeryshire

Too Close

Too Close

LD/

CON

 

  

  

  

   

Aberconwy

Too Close

Too Close

PC/

CON/

LAB

  

  

  

   

Cardiff Central

Too Close

Too Close

LD/

LAB

 

Cardiff North

Too Close

Too Close

CON/

LAB

 

As the only changes in the constituency voting intention from the previous YouGov poll were Labour up two points and the Tories down one it hasn't conclusively switch any of the above seats, although clearly Labour's chances of taking their target seats seem higher than they did at the start of the campaign. Llanelli is the seat where Labour's march has been so keenly felt. To a point Plaid Cymru are camped in enemy territory here as the Westminster seat is solidly Labour, and has been since the 1920s. However, Labour were not polling well enough pre-March to take this seat on UNS projections so with their incumbent AM Plaid appeared favourites in this seat.

Since then the two party's fortunes have been very different as a 4% PC>LAB swing has been observed in the polls. Both parties appeal to left leaning voters in the South and so Helen Mary Jones is unlikely to be pleased with this development. Uniform swing sees her losing her seat by quite some margin and although her personal vote should mitigate some of her party's national drop in support it is worth remembering she lost a close battle for Llanelli in 2003. Jones is still the bookies favourites but this is one seat where the apparent PC>LAB swing could cost the Welsh Nationalists.

As the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives were virtually unchanged in the new poll Montgomeryshire is still a bit of mystery. I have been told the Tories appear to have a better presence in the constituency and they are very slight favourites with the bookmakers. I have a sneaking suspicion this will either be a tight hold for the Lib Dems or they'll lose it badly on a large swing reminiscent to the one which ousted Lembit Opik from Parliament…so it's bound to be a narrow Conservative gain!

Aberconwy is very interesting seat for anyone considering placing any constituency bets on this election. Despite losing their incumbent AM Plaid Cymru are considering favourites in this three-way marginal. However, I have heard from Plaid supports that they are far from confident of holding this seat. In 2007 they won this seat with 38.5% of the vote but as they are 5 points down in the polls from that election and no longer have the Gareth Jones' personal vote a fairly significant drop in support seems certain.

So who out of Labour and the Conservatives are best placed to benefit? On Uniform swing Labour currently sweep to victory here and the bookies rate their chances much higher than the Tories. However, they had to change their candidate late in the election cycle which would have surely disrupted their campaign somewhat. You can get the Tories as long as 10/1 at the moment, which considering they were second in 2007 and have a prominent local candidate looks like value from a far. The caveat being they need to increase their vote to win which isn't apparent in the national polling. It's quite easy to find reasons why any of the three contenders won't win, which from makes working out who will somewhat difficult!

Finally on to Cardiff and Labour's chances in the two key marginals in the capital have surely increased since the campaign has started. They take Cardiff North quite comfortably on uniform swing and as their candidate is a former MP for the city the incumbency advantage usually enjoyed by the defending party is likely to be significantly weaker here. As for Cardiff Central, this would still stay with the Liberal Democrats on Uniform swing despite Labour polling almost 50% nationally. The Lib Dems have lost their incumbent but they do have a good local infrastructure to aid their defence. For Labour to win this they require a huge swing but given the current polling that is looking quite possible.

There are a couple of seats that I switched to Lean in the revision which are worth a quick look at.

Constituency

Initial

Revised

  

 

Carmarthen W & P'shire S

Too Close

LAB Lean

LAB/

PC

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Too Close

LAB Lean

CON/

LAB

Having dismissed Plaid's chances in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South following their national drop in support I received a few comments from the ground there. Essentially they are all saying the Conservatives are not really in the running and the Plaid candidate, the popular regional AM Nerys Evans, seems the most likely to prevent a Labour gain. This seat is pretty much the opposite of the other three-way marginal Aberconwy in that each contender has plenty of positive reasons why they might win. Given Labour's poll lead and having the former AM for this constituency as their candidate I still think they are the likely victors but it sounds like Evans' personal support is keeping her chances alive.

I've heard suggestions that Labour are concentrating on the Carmarthen West seat to the detriment of their campaign in the next door target of Presili Pembrokeshire but as they easily win this on UNS it would take quite a poor local campaign to lose this one.

A few of Plaid held seats are seemingly under threat from Labour on strict Uniform Swing calculations but I'm still fairly sure they will stay with the Welsh Nationalists. Although they lose Ynys Mon on UNS they fact their leader in the Assembly is the sitting AM should help. Equally, it would be a pretty terrible night for Plaid if they lost Arfon or Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and I just don't see that happening.

As for the list seats, I'm not going to go into them in great detail as there is little significant change in the regional voting intention. The big change from the revised forecast is that UKIP have fallen back from their strong polling in March and would not win a seat in South East Wales on Uniform Swing. The cross-tabs indicate they are doing better in the region than my Welsh seat calculator gives them credit for but regional sub-sets are extremely unreliable.

So, where does all this leave the forecast? Here's the revised forecast from last Monday:

  

2007

Initial

Revised

Labour

26

28-33

32-34

Plaid Cymru

15

12-15

10-11

Conservatives

12

10-13

11-14

Lib. Dems.

6

4-5

2-3

Independent

1

0

0

UKIP

0

0

1

Running through it all I don't think this poll has really changed much. The key point is that with only two weeks to go things are becoming more set and wild swings for or against any party are unlikely. Of course, the polling may have been over or under stating certain parties all along but significant changes in national vote share seem unlikely at this late stage.

On the evidence available I think Labour are seat for a majority of around 6 seats, so a best case scenario from the Initial Forecast and right in the middle of the Revised one. Plaid Cymru seem set to fall to around 10 seats as a reward for their four years as a junior coalition partner. As the Tories are holding the regional vote share around the same level as in 2007 then if the polling is correct they are set to increase their seat numbers. Essentially, they are going to benefit from the drop in support from the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru on the regional list, which should more than make up for the expected constituency losses to Labour. The seat that did go to UKIP in the Revised forecast would now head to the Liberal Democrats so they are currently looking at 3-4 seats.

So there you have it. With less than two weeks to go until polling day I don't ask for much; just a Welsh poll from another established pollster and more of your comments on the ground!

8 comments:

  1. Excellent post as always here. I'm not convinced that the two big races of this election have been decided yet - i.e. will Labour get an overall majority and will the Tories overtake Plaid. My instincts (Plaid leaning!) tell me that Labour are on the margins of getting a majority but certainly not a large one (e.g six seats) and that the Tory/Plaid battle will go down to the wire, with a few Labour tactical second votes possible deciding the fate of some Tory or Plaid regional AMs

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  2. I agree the race for second place is very interesting. There are also rumours in the North of a shock result in Clwyd South with the seat turning into a three way marginal as a result of Karen Sinclair retiring. Plaid have a hard working candidate and are picking up scores of votes in traditional Labour heartlands. The Tories also have a well known local candidate and is likely to pick up a large personal vote. They will also hope that the lack of a UKIP candidate will go in their favour.

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  3. Plaid activists should be encouraging Labour voters in the North and in the South Wales regions to support them on the List - most, or at least a great many, Labour voters would prefer Plaid AMs to Tories or Lib Dems.

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  4. In west Wales there is a small but effective campaign by the anti badger cull group PAC to support anti cull candidates. This will help Labour Candidates in the two Pembs constituencies where both Plaid and Conservatives are pro cull.In Ceredigion only Elin Jones of Plaid is procull so the anti cull vote could go three ways despite PACs attempts to stear their supporters to the second placed Libdem candidate.This local issue is likely to increase turnout.It will be interesting to analyse these results to see if the Badger cull effect can be detected.

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  5. Interesting to look at the Plaid Regional vote in the last 3 Yougov Polls; Plaid constituency voters have changed the switch from favouring Labour to favouring anyone but Labour.

    March 8th Lab...10% Con/Lib..4%

    March 30th Lab...5% Con/Lib..9%


    April 14th Lab...0% Con/Lib...7%

    Although Plaid supporters remain supremely confident that Labour second votes favour Plaid, they have sneakily moved their support to possible coalition partners CON/LIB.

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  6. The regional vote isn't a second preference, as it's often described by commentators. Plaid are in for a chance at list seats in all five regions, so Plaid supporters have little to gain by voting otherwise on the list. If they were tactically supporting Con/Lib they would be doing so with their constituency vote in seats like Cardiff North / Central, where Plaid have no hope of winning, while continuing to vote Plaid on the regional lists all over Wales.

    Labour supporters however are genuinely wasting their votes if they vote Labour on the list in 4 of the 5 regions, so Plaid and the Greens are right to be courting Labour supporters for their list votes - Labour have nothing to lose by this; it's a question of whom they would most like to see occupying the non-Labour seats in the Senedd.

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  7. If you're asking for reports from the ground - from a conservative activist in Caerphilly, I really think you should be giving attention to Ron Davies' campaign under plaid.

    He has a huge majority to overcome, but plaid cymru have a core vote of about 5,500 here, and when I'm out canvassing for Owen Meredith (Con), all i hear is "I'm voting for Ron".

    The constituency has been kept of the radar somewhat due to the size of Cuthbert's majority but I honestly think this could be a surprise result for Ron Davies next week

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  8. I've been a bit busier than I expected over the Bank Holiday weekend, which is my poor excuse for not getting back to this!

    Thanks to everyone for the comments; very illuminating. I'm certainly expecting a surprise or two in the constituencies and Caerphilly is one to keep an eye on!

    A six seat Labour majority is reliant on the polling being correct, so it will be interesting to see how accurate YouGov are.

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