tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post7248012496166768702..comments2024-02-20T08:37:57.138+00:00Comments on Britain Votes: Not Another Revised Welsh Forecast!Britain Voteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00982679942856883673noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-12407833885755165362011-04-27T02:41:23.535+01:002011-04-27T02:41:23.535+01:00I've been a bit busier than I expected over th...I've been a bit busier than I expected over the Bank Holiday weekend, which is my poor excuse for not getting back to this!<br /><br />Thanks to everyone for the comments; very illuminating. I'm certainly expecting a surprise or two in the constituencies and Caerphilly is one to keep an eye on!<br /><br />A six seat Labour majority is reliant on the polling being correct, so it will be interesting to see how accurate YouGov are.Tom Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17842647678841839576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-55891284316241681872011-04-26T14:34:05.929+01:002011-04-26T14:34:05.929+01:00If you're asking for reports from the ground -...If you're asking for reports from the ground - from a conservative activist in Caerphilly, I really think you should be giving attention to Ron Davies' campaign under plaid.<br /><br />He has a huge majority to overcome, but plaid cymru have a core vote of about 5,500 here, and when I'm out canvassing for Owen Meredith (Con), all i hear is "I'm voting for Ron".<br /><br />The constituency has been kept of the radar somewhat due to the size of Cuthbert's majority but I honestly think this could be a surprise result for Ron Davies next weekAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-1228717732797410072011-04-23T12:17:11.070+01:002011-04-23T12:17:11.070+01:00The regional vote isn't a second preference, a...The regional vote isn't a second preference, as it's often described by commentators. Plaid are in for a chance at list seats in all five regions, so Plaid supporters have little to gain by voting otherwise on the list. If they were tactically supporting Con/Lib they would be doing so with their constituency vote in seats like Cardiff North / Central, where Plaid have no hope of winning, while continuing to vote Plaid on the regional lists all over Wales.<br /><br />Labour supporters however are genuinely wasting their votes if they vote Labour on the list in 4 of the 5 regions, so Plaid and the Greens are right to be courting Labour supporters for their list votes - Labour have nothing to lose by this; it's a question of whom they would most like to see occupying the non-Labour seats in the Senedd.Welshguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-77480699445879211602011-04-23T09:38:11.279+01:002011-04-23T09:38:11.279+01:00Interesting to look at the Plaid Regional vote in ...Interesting to look at the Plaid Regional vote in the last 3 Yougov Polls; Plaid constituency voters have changed the switch from favouring Labour to favouring anyone but Labour.<br /><br />March 8th Lab...10% Con/Lib..4%<br /> <br />March 30th Lab...5% Con/Lib..9%<br /><br /><br />April 14th Lab...0% Con/Lib...7%<br /><br />Although Plaid supporters remain supremely confident that Labour second votes favour Plaid, they have sneakily moved their support to possible coalition partners CON/LIB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-29378493584393705252011-04-22T21:30:26.960+01:002011-04-22T21:30:26.960+01:00In west Wales there is a small but effective campa...In west Wales there is a small but effective campaign by the anti badger cull group PAC to support anti cull candidates. This will help Labour Candidates in the two Pembs constituencies where both Plaid and Conservatives are pro cull.In Ceredigion only Elin Jones of Plaid is procull so the anti cull vote could go three ways despite PACs attempts to stear their supporters to the second placed Libdem candidate.This local issue is likely to increase turnout.It will be interesting to analyse these results to see if the Badger cull effect can be detected.M Griffithsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-30690684180605508712011-04-22T19:24:34.802+01:002011-04-22T19:24:34.802+01:00Plaid activists should be encouraging Labour voter...Plaid activists should be encouraging Labour voters in the North and in the South Wales regions to support them on the List - most, or at least a great many, Labour voters would prefer Plaid AMs to Tories or Lib Dems.Welshguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-53712389427814041922011-04-22T15:56:30.299+01:002011-04-22T15:56:30.299+01:00I agree the race for second place is very interest...I agree the race for second place is very interesting. There are also rumours in the North of a shock result in Clwyd South with the seat turning into a three way marginal as a result of Karen Sinclair retiring. Plaid have a hard working candidate and are picking up scores of votes in traditional Labour heartlands. The Tories also have a well known local candidate and is likely to pick up a large personal vote. They will also hope that the lack of a UKIP candidate will go in their favour.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5378450371118263133.post-76036260659907486222011-04-22T09:18:28.238+01:002011-04-22T09:18:28.238+01:00Excellent post as always here. I'm not convinc...Excellent post as always here. I'm not convinced that the two big races of this election have been decided yet - i.e. will Labour get an overall majority and will the Tories overtake Plaid. My instincts (Plaid leaning!) tell me that Labour are on the margins of getting a majority but certainly not a large one (e.g six seats) and that the Tory/Plaid battle will go down to the wire, with a few Labour tactical second votes possible deciding the fate of some Tory or Plaid regional AMsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com