Battlegrounds 2011 : Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru will be hoping that the last four years of coalition government with Labour will have been able to lay to rest the question "Yes, but what could Plaid do in government?" and hope that electors will ask a new question "What can Plaid do with an overall majority in the Assembly?". At the moment Plaid have seven Assembly constituencies under their belt. These seven are (in decreasing order of safeness)

1. Dwyfor, Meirionnydd (40.09% majority) won by Lord Elis Thomas AM (who is the presiding officer of the Assembly). This seat has voted Plaid continually since February 1974 and with the presiding officer seeking another term in the Assembly, I can see no reason why it shouldn't continue
2. Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (28.94% majority) won by Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM. When the coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru was agreed, Rhodri was nominated as Culture and Heritage Minister (in charge of the Welsh language, Cadw and the arts) but did tend to put his foot in it just once or twice, most notably when he did a Terry Wogan and announced the wrong winner at a major book awards ceremony. Labour need a swing of 14.5% to topple Rhodri and whilst I think he will be back in the new Assembly, he might find his majority cut down to size
3. Arfon (25.64% majority) won by Alun Ffred Jones AM. Alun was given the Heritage brief after Rhodri's faux pas with the awards and you would think that with a 26% majority (13% swing to Labour needed to gain) he too would be safe, but given that Plaid won Arfon last year in the Westminster election by only 6%, this could well go to a recount (if so, expect Wales North to be even later than they expect at the moment)
4. Ynys Môn (16.38% majority) won by the Deputy First Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones AM. Elected as the MP for the constituency in 1987 (gaining the seat from the Conservatives) and then as the Assembly member in 1999 Ieuan should be fairly secure here (if only due to the Labour candidate putting his foot in it last week), but Peter Rogers (the former Con regional AM) polled a very respectable 23% last time, and if those votes went en masse to the Conservative candidate in 2007, his majority would be down to just 3%. Could there be an upset in the pipeline?
5. Llanelli (14.07% majority) won by Helen Mary Jones AM. Who can forget the scene at Llanelli in 2003 when Helen Mary Jones lost the Llanelli constituency by just 21 votes to Labour and was clearly upset by the loss? Could that happen again in 2011? Well, to be honest I have no idea. Labour should be expected to gain the seat (on a 7.04% swing) but have chosen a candidate who is in his 70's against a sitting Assembly member who has demonstrated her ability to sit in government. If Labour do gain this seat, it's going to be another recount job.
6. Ceredigion (13.14% majority) won by Elin Jones AM. Elin was given the agriculture brief as part of the coalition agreement (previously occupied by Carwyn Jones and before him Christine Gwyther) and has proved to be a bit of a poisoned chalice as Elin discovered when she piloted leglisation through the Assembly authorising a cull of badgers to prevent outbreaks of bovine TB. Indeed, just last week in Aberystwyth a group opposed to the cull interuppted a campaign event and demanded she answer her critics. Ceredigion is a very rural constituency, but the main votes are in the student towns of Aberystwyth, Cardigan and Lampeter (where about 25% of the electorate live). The Lib Dems need a swing of 6.57% to gain the seat, but will the U turn over tuition fees hurt them or will they be able to demonstrate that local issues can decide elections?
7. Aberconwy (8.18% majority) won by Gareth Jones AM. Gareth Jones has decided that after three elections (where he won twice and lost once) 12 years involved in the Assembly is enough for anyone and has stood down. With the Westminster seat going Conservative and Labour only needing a swing of 4.09% to gain, this is one seat that should change hands next week. As to who will gain it, I've not a clue!

And just like the other parties, Plaid have their own collection of seats they would love to get their hands on:

1. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (0.44% swing from third). Carmarthen West is that strange constituency that's made up of all sorts. There's a bit of the old Carmarthen, a bit of the old Pembroke and even a little bit of the old Ceredigion in there for good measure, as a result this constituency (especially since 1999) has been a right old battleground. In 1999, it was a Lab / Con battleground (Lab 35% Con 30%), then in 2003 it became a Lab / Plaid battleground (Lab 36% Plaid 34%) and then in 2007 it became a three way marginal (Con 30% Lab 30% Plaid 29%). Whatever does happen at least one Assembly member will be on the way out as Nerys Evans (one of Plaid's regional AM's has decided to contest the constituency and under the rules of the Assembly cannot stand for the regional list at the same time)
2. Clwyd West (3.33% swing from third). The same could be said for Clwyd West (a Con / Lab battleground in 1997), Plaid decided to gatecrash the party in 1999 (Lab 31%, Con 28%, Plaid 27%), and although losing a little headway in 2003 recovered in 2007 to make this seat a three way marginal as well (Con 34%, Lab 28%, Plaid 27%). Will Clwyd West be Plaid's first seat in Clwyd ever or will it revert to form as a Con / Lab battleground?
3. Caerphilly (3.60% swing). Now Plaid must be thinking they have a chance here if only because their candidate this time around was the Independent candidate last time and the former Labour MP for the constituency until 2001. Yes, that's right, Ron Davies is standing for Plaid Cymru in his former seat (and when you consider that between him and Plaid in 2007, a total of 12,544 votes were cast as opposed to the 9,026 votes cast for Jeff Cuthbert, you can see why they are quite optimistic), but will the Labour increase across Wales since 2007 put paid to their plans?
4. Neath (3.86% swing). Gwenda Thomas will be seeking her fourth Assembly term next week (one of 11 Labour AM's elected at the first Assembly elections) and given the national swing to Labour since 2007, she must be feeling fairly confident, but could the Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters (9% and 11% in 2007) spoil the party by tactically voting for Plaid Cymru?
5. Preseli, Pembrokeshire (6.94% swing from third). And here is another example of a seat that has been trending Plaid since 1999. 25% in 1999 for Plaid, 23% in 2003 and 25% again in 2007. Having won the north of the county in 1992 (as part of Ceredigion and Pembroke North) could Plaid pull off another win in 2011? My personal feelings are that the south of the county (Milford Haven and Haverfordwest) is not as conducive to Plaid as the north so think that this could well revert to a Con / Lab battleground again
6. Clwyd South (7.55% swing from third). Now we are starting to get into the long shots for Plaid. In 1999, Plaid polled a very respectable 25% in Clwyd South, but that has slipped down to just 20% in 2007, although with Karen Sinclair standing down from the Assembly could Plaid pick up votes and regain second place?
7. Gower (7.81% swing from third). It's a similar story in Gower, 24% in 1999, 19% now but unlike Clwyd South, Edwina Hart is standing again. The best Plaid can hope for here is a strong second, but a gain is rather unlikely.

Scotland Votes: Mid Scotland and Fife Part 3: The Regional Seats

This post covers the regional seats in this region. To see the five seats in Fife click here and the Mid Scotland seats are here.

Having completed the constituency seats in this region, therefore, we move onto the seven list seats. After the boundary review the region now looks like this overall:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
SNP	4	83946	32.5%	2	6
Labour	3	70204	27.2%	2	5
Conservative	0	40408	15.6%	3	3
Lib. Dem.	2	34920	13.5%	0	2
Green	0	9745	3.8%	0	0

The regional seats divide up this:

Additional Members
1. Murdo Fraser	2. Elizabeth Smith
3. John Park	4. Chris Harvie
5. Claire Baker	6. Ted Brocklebank
7.	Richard Simpson

Labour’s notional gain of Stirling means they lose a seat on the list compared to 2007, with the SNP getting the final seat. Current MSP Richard Simpson is the victim of the SNP gain.

I marked three seats as ‘too close’. The first is Dunfermline which could go either Labour or Lib Dem by my analysis, and the two seats of Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, which could both go to either Labour or the SNP.

UPDATE: Considering the comments on my original Dunfermline analysis I've decided that it is clearly leaning fairly seriously towards Labour. I made a bad call, and I apologise.

This therefore gives us three scenarios, based on whether the SNP and Labour split Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. We’ll basically start with the scenarios that are best for the SNP and worst for Labour and work our way through to worst for the SNP and best for Labour.

I should note that with the recent shift in polling towards the SNP we’ve updated our methodology. Our measure of uniform swing is now based upon an average of the latest Ipsos MORI and YouGov poll.

Scenario 1: The SNP win the seats of Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane. Labour wins Dunfermline

Party	Const. Seats	2007	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members	Change (from notionals)
Labour	3	27.2	28.5	2	5	0
SNP	5	32.5	42.0	2	7	+1
Conservatives	0	15.6	12.7	2	2	-1
Lib. Dems.	1	13.5	9.7	0	1	-1
Greens	0	3.8	5.3	1	1	+1

In this scenario the first seat would go to Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Conservative’s deputy leader and shadow health minister. Seat 2 would go to John Park, Labour’s elections and campaigns guru. The third seat would go to Annabelle Ewing, daughter of the SNP’s first post-war MP Annabelle Ewing and a former MP in Westminster’s Perth constituency. The next MSP would be the Conservative’s Elizabeth Smith, the party’s Education Shadow. The sixth seat would then go to Douglas Chapman (SNP), Bruce Campbell MSP’s former researcher and a Fife councillor. The final seat would go to the Green’s Mark Ruskell, a former MSP in this region.

The election of Labour’s Alex Rowley in Dunfermline spells good news for the Greens as under this scenario the Lib Dems lose a seat to their advantage. They are on dangerous ground in this scenario though, as they just get the last seat. From these figures it would take a swing of only around 0.05% from Greens to the SNP to elect Bill Walker in Ruskell’s place. If the Lib Dems gained about 1% then their candidate of Willie Rennie would be elected. In order for Labour and Conservative list MSPs Richard Simpson or Miles Brigg (respectively) to be elected they would have to take votes from the SNP more than the Greens. Taking 1.5% of the vote from the SNP and 1% from the Greens would elect Labour’s Richard Simpson. Similar figures would be required for the Conservative’s Miles Brigg.

Scenario 2: Labour and SNP split Stirling and Clackmannanshire and Dunblane one all. Labour takes Dunfermline from the Lib Dems

Party	Const. Seats	2007	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members	Change (from notionals)
Labour	4	27.2	28.5	1	5	0
SNP	4	32.5	42.0	3	7	+1
Conservatives	0	15.6	12.7	2	2	-1
Lib. Dems.	1	13.5	9.7	0	1	-1
Greens	0	3.8	5.3	1	1	+1

Seats: 1. Murdo Fraser (Con) 2. Bruce Crawford/Annabelle Ewing (SNP, depending on constituency seats) 3. Annabelle Ewing/Keith Brown (SNP, depending on constituency seats) 4. Elizabeth Smith (Con) 5. Douglas Chapman (SNP) 6. John Park (Lab) 7. Mark Ruskell (Green)

Same swings as Scenario 2.

Scenario 3: Labour win Stirling, Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, and Dunfermline.

Party	Const. Seats	2007	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members	Change (from notionals)
Labour	5	27.2	28.5	0	5	0
SNP	3	32.5	42.0	4	7	+1
Conservatives	0	15.6	12.7	2	2	-1
Lib. Dems.	1	13.5	9.7	0	1	-1
Greens	0	3.8	5.3	1	1	+1

Seats: 1. Murdo Fraser (Con) 2. Bruce Crawford (SNP) 3. Annabelle Ewing (SNP) 4. Keith Brown (SNP) 5. Elizabeth Smith (Con) 6. Douglas Chapman (SNP) 7. Mark Ruskell (Green).

Same swings as scenario 2.

Overall Summary

Good news for the SNP in all our projections – they are shown as gaining a seat overall in all our scenarios, even if they lose constituency seats. It’s not quite all bad for Labour, however – they remain stable, and losing constituency seats. The Conservatives lose a seat in all our projections, but polls often underestimate the party in Scottish Parliamentary elections. The Lib Dems are not compensated for the loss of Dunfermline in our projections and are in serious danger. The Green seat is REALLY closein our projections but if they don't get it it will go to the SNP rather than the Lib Dems.