A Look @: Tyne & Wear (Part I)

I've split the metropolitan county of Tyne & Wear in two. This one will focus on Sunderland and South Tyneside and you can find Gateshead, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and North Tyneside here. Labour won all 13 seats in this metropolitan area in 2005 by the Boundary Commission saw fit to remove a constituency resulting in a complete restructuring of the Parliamentary Boundaries. The confusion has been compounded due to the fact 6 MPs are standing down and a 7^th is 'moving' seat. The Liberal Democrats will be looking to make a breakthrough at Parliamentary level in this area but the Conservatives are also eying a gain whilst Labour are down.

The City of Sunderland Council is a Labour stronghold and they currently run the council with 48 of the 75 seats. The Conservatives form the opposition with 22 councillors. In 2008 five seats changed hands, all Labour to the Tories. South Tyneside is a bit different. Although it too is run by Labour, with 31 of the 54 seats, 17 independents were elected in the 2008 election, meaning neither the Lib Dems nor the Conservatives made any inroads.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Sunderland Central	Bill Etherington	9,464	12.25%	2/7	LAB Hold
S'land S & Houghton	Chris Mullin	16,986	22.9%	1/100	LAB Hold
S'land W & Washington	Fraser Kemp	17,060	26.3%	1/500	LAB Hold
Jarrow	Stephen Hepburn	12,749	18.2%	1/100	LAB Hold
South Shields	David Miliband	13,368	20.9%	1/500	LAB Hold

It's Sunderland where the Tyne & Wear area has seemingly lost a seat. It's not quite that clear cut but the two seats in the actual city of Sunderland have become one, with the remnants distributed between the other two vastly reworked constituencies within the council boundary. Bill Etherington is the notional incumbent but he's standing down anyway. He has since become an outspoken defender of MPs expenses, stating he wouldn't pay back any money if he thought the claim was within the rules. I'm not sure this will be helping Julie Elliott's efforts to hold this seat for Labour, especially as the Conservatives are running a strong candidate in the shape of their Council Leader Lee Martin. If Labour are having a terrible night then there could be a big upset here, but the safe bet is Labour Hold.

Chirs Mullin has frequently been the first MP officially returned to Parliament in recent years thanks to the speed of the count in his old Sunderland South constituency. This year things will be different though as Mullin is standing down
and the seat has been abolished. Three wards from the old seat are now merged with the Houghton part of the old Houghton and Washington East seat to create Houghton & Sunderland South. The seat has a massive notional majority for Labour and so it's hard to see anyone but their candidate Bridget Phillipson winning this; Labour Hold.

Washington & Sunderland West completes the trio of reworked Sunderland seats and the notional incumbent Fraser Kemp is not standing for re-election. He served three terms as MP for the old Houghton and Washington East seat but his retirement does not mean the new constituency will not have a sitting MP seeking election in it. Sharon Hodgeson is following southern half her Gateshead and Washington West seat into this one and will be defending a huge notional majority. She'll easily secure her second term in Parliament; Labour Hold.

Stephen Hepburn's constituency, Jarrow, was relatively untouched by the boundary commission. The loss of an eastern ward to the South Shields seat and the addition of a couple of wards from Gateshead have shaved a thousand votes off his notional majority but this shouldn't affect the outcome. The fact he's had to repay will be equally irrelevant as Hepburn looks set to win a fourth term; Labour Hold.

Depending on who you listen to South Shields could provide the Labour with its next leader. The current Foreign Secretary David Miliband is safe as houses and should easily win this seat for the third time; Labour Hold.

A Look @: Warwickshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Kenilworth & Southam		10,956	12.4%	1/500	CON Gain
Nuneaton	Bill Olner	3,894	4.9%	2/7	CON Gain
Rudby	Jeremy Wright	2,397	2.6%	1/20	CON Hold
Stratford-on-Avon	John Maples	10,928	12%	1/16	CON Hold
Warwick & Leamington	James Plaskitt	4,393	5.2%	8/15	CON Gain
Warwickshire North	Mike O'Brien	6,684	7.7%	8/11	CON Gain

Kenilworth & Southam is a new parliamentary seat. Jeremy Wright MP for the old Rugby & Kenilworth constituency (Now just Rugby) has decided to contest this seat instead of his own. Smart move. This new seat is very much notionally Tory. Tory support is almost eleven thousand-votes ahead on 2005 altered figures, compared to just two and a half thousand-votes in the new Rugby. He'll probably end up with around fifteen thousand, Labour will finish 3^rd here. CON Gain.

Bill Olner isn't contesting Nuneaton, so PPC Jayne Innes will fail to hold this one for Labour. R&T has estimated a 28% boundary change to this constituency, almost doubling the Labour notional. But it won't be enough. Nuneaton is Tory target seat number 85 and Marcus Jones (Tory PPC) will take this for them on May 6^th. CON Gain.

Rugby was held by Jeremy Wright, but he's made a tactical decision to contest the ultra-safe Kenilworth & Southam seat. He needn't have bothered. Rugby is notionally conservative by two and a half thousand-votes on 2005 figures. Mark Pawsey (Tory PPC) will walk this. CON Hold.

John Maples will not be contesting Stratford-on-Avon. The Telegraph reported that this was a little dodgy during the expenses scandal in 2009. But his replacement Nadhim Zahawi will clear this up for the Tories. The 36% boundary alteration has slightly increased the Tory notional majority. Essentially he's already 24% ahead. CON Hold.

Labour MP James Plaskitt will likely be the defeated by Chris White in the race for Warwick & Leamington. A 5.2% from Plaskitt to White will do it. Regional polls suggest that the Tories doing better than that in Warwickshire. CON Gain.

Mike O'Brien is the Labour MP for Warwickshire North. He's only slightly behind Dan Byles (Tory PPC) according to the bookies. But the current regional swing figures suggest that O'Brien is out after the election and I imagine that these figures will only grow in favor of the Tories and at the expense of Labour. Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen. CON Gain.

 

Michael Turner

A Look @: Staffordshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Burton	Janet Dean	2,132	2.4%	1/6	CON Gain
Cannock Chase	Ton Wright	8,726	10.5%	8/13	LAB Hold
Lichfield	Michael Faricant	7,791	8.2%	1/200	CON Hold
Newcastle-u-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	8,108	10.2%	1/3	LAB Hold
Stafford	David Kidney	1,852	2%	1/10	CON Gain
Staffordshire Moor'	Charlotte Atkins	1,618	1.9%	1/12	CON Hold
Staffordshire South	Patrick Cormack	8,346	15.3%	1/200	CON Hold
Stoke-On-Trent C	Mark Fisher	9,717	16.9%	1/5	LAB Hold
Stoke-On-Trent N	Joan Walley	13,666	19.4%	1/100	LAB Hold
Stoke-On-Trent S	Robert Fiello	8,324	11.3%	1/3	LAB Hold
Stone	William Cash	8,191	9.4%	1/200	CON Hold
Tamworth	Brian Jenkins	2,569	2.9%	1/5	CON Gain

Janet Dean, Labour MP, will not contest Burton at the election. Instead Ruth Smith will fight to hold this marginal. Andrew Griffiths is my favourite to take this seat however. CON Gain.

Tony Wright is another Labour MP standing down this year. He's not contesting Cannock Chase. The Times falsely accuses Wight of fraudulent claims and apologized. So Susan Woodward will be fighting against Aidan Burley (Tory PPC) to hold this one for Labour. She should be successful, she's notionally ahead by almost nine thousand-votes. LAB Hold.

Tory MP Michael Fabricant will hold Lichfield at the election. The most interesting part of the day will be guessing what hairstyle he'll give his victory speech with. Seriously it's crazy. CON Hold.

Labour MP Paul Farrelly holds Newcastle-Under-Lyme. A 10.2% swing directly from Farrelly to Robert Jenrick (Tory PPC) is needed to turn this seat blue on May 6^th. He was part of the failed Brown-Coup in 2009, publically calling for Brown to go in recognition of Labour's poor performance in Staffordshire local elections. It's a big task, probably too big for Jenrick this year. One to watch. LAB Hold.

Stafford is Tory target seat number 37. David Kidney is seeking re-election, but is well within the reach of Jeremy Lefroy (Tory PPC). Just a 2% swing from Kidney to Lefroy will take this for the Tories. That will be easy enough under the current political climate. CON Gain.

Staffordshire Moorlands sits Charlotte Atkins, the Labour MP who claimed a fair wedge for renovations in her 2^nd home according to the Telegraph. So Karen Bradley is my favourite to take this seat. Unfortunately for Atkins, thanks to the latest round of boundary alterations, her constituency (altered by 37% according to R&T) has gone from a Labour majority, to being notionally Tory. Essentially, it's already hers. CON Gain.

Staffordshire South is home to the hilarious Sir Patrick Cormack. He ran for speaker and thinks MP's pay should double and when he realized that basically it wasn't going to happen, he announced that he would resign. So his replacement Gavin Williamson will clear this one up. CON Hold.

Mark Fisher is yet another Labour MP to stand down at the election. So Tristram Hunt, has been parachuted-in by Labour HQ to hold the relatively safe Stoke-On-Trent Central. LAB Hold.

Joan Walley, Labour MP, will hold on to Stoke-On-Trent North she's thirteen and a half thousand-votes ahead notionally. LAB Hold.

Labour MP Robert Flello will just hold off James Rushton (Tory PPC) in the fight for Stoke-On-Trent South. Rushton would need an 11.3% swing from Flello to secure this, but there's too much competition on the right with Michael Coleman (BNP) and Mark Barlow (UKIP) standing, to climb eight and a half thousand-votes in this seat. LAB Hold.

William Cash, Tory MP, will hold Stone on May 6^th, despite claiming taxpayer's 'cash' to give to his daughter. Labour pushed into 3^rd here, this seat is firmly Tory. CON Hold.

Brian Jenkins sits in Tory target seat number 52. Tamworth has a notional Labour majority of just two and a half thousand-votes. So Christopher Pincher (Tory PPC) will take this one on May 6^th. CON Gain.

 

Michael Turner

A Look @: Durham

Durham is a solidly Labour country and, despite their current drop in support, this isn't going to change very soon. They hold all six Parliamentary seats in the newly former unitary authority of Durham as well as the one seat in Darlington (a separate unitary authority). Only one of these seats is under serious threat. Labour also won 67 of the 126 seats on the council in the 2008 elections. Their main opponents at local and Parliamentary level are the Liberal Democrats who form the second largest group with 27 councillors. (nb. Hartlepool and Stockton will be discussed in a later post)

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed		Favourite	Prediction
Easington	John Cummings	18,874	29.2%		1/500	LAB Hold
Durham, City of	Roberta Blackman-Woods	3,274	3.7%		4/7	LD Gain
Durham North	Kevan Jones	16,781	22.5%		1/50	LAB Hold
Durham NW	Hillary Armstrong	13,443	17.1%		1/100	LAB Hold
Bishop Auckland	Helen Goodman	10,047	13.2%	13.6%	1/8	LAB Hold
Darlington	Alan Milburn	10,417	13.1%		1/8	LAB Hold
Sedgefield	Phil Wilson	18,198	22.5%		1/200	LAB Hold

 

Easington has been held by Labour since its creation in 1950 and has been represented by only three MPs since. John Cummings was first elected in 1987 but he is standing down at this election. This seat is the second safest in the country and Grahame Morris is the lucky Labour candidate who, quite frankly, can't lose; Labour Hold.

Roberta Blackman-Woods is the unfortunate Labour MP with the massive target on her back. Her City of Durham seat is well within the reach of the Liberal Democrats who will be desperate to take it off her hands. She is finishing her first term in a seat Labour have held since World War II but she has a tough task to hold it this year. Her Lib Dem challenger is the same Carol Woods who has reduced Labour's majority in this seat from 40% to just 7.4% in two elections. Also, many of the Lib Dem's councillors were elected from wards in this constituency. But accusations of a smear campaign by the Lib Dems may help Blackman-Woods in her bid for re-election. I don't think this will be enough to negate the regional Lab>LD swing though, but this could be very close. I'm going for a historic Lib Dem Gain.

North Durham has been Labour's since the seat's its creation in 1983. Kevan Jones is seeking his third term in Parliament and with such a large majority it's difficult to see him losing; Labour Hold.

Since its creation in 1950 the North West Durham seat has held by Labour. Hillary Armstrong has been the MP here since 1987 but the former Chief Whip is standing down at the age of 65. This leaves Pat Glass with job of defending this very safe seat for Labour. She should do it with ease; Labour Hold.

Bishop Auckland is another seat Labour have comfortably held since World War II. Helen Goodman is seeking re-election after her first term in Parliament but she hasn't made things easy for herself. Goodman was implicated in the Telegraph over her expenses, which included renting a holiday cottage in her constituency (in Euros) and trying to make a claim for a hotel she stayed in before she was elected. Fortunately for her she has a big majority and a split opposition. It's not clear who out of the Conservative candidate Barbra Harrison or the Lib Dem Mark Wilkes, both Durham councillors, is best place to challenge her. Should be a Labour Hold.

Darlington has a unitary authority of its own which covers the Darlington Parliamentary constituency and parts or Sedgefield. The council is currently controlled by Labour, although they lost 5 seats in the 2007 elections. They have also lost their MP, Alan Milburn, who won this seat off the Conservative incumbent in 1992. The former Health Secretary cited his family as the main reason for standing down, which echoed his decision to resign as a minister in 2003. Councillor Jenny Chapman will be Labour's candidate defending Milburn's big majority. Although their may have been a significant personal vote for Milburn, I don't think the Conservative candidate Edward Legard will be able to make this competitive; Labour Hold.

It would be a symbolic moment for New Labour if Tony Blair's old seat Sedgefield fell next week. Unfortunately for the other parties this is very unlikely to happen. Phil Wilson comfortable held this in the by-election triggered when Blair left to become an envoy to the Middle East. He'll comfortable hold again at the General Election; Labour Hold.

A Look @: Northumberland

Northumberland is fairly split politically. The county has four Parliamentary seats of which Labour hold 2 and the other main parties share the others. The council paints a similar picture as the 2008 elections to the newly formed unitary authority resulted in No Overall Control. The Liberal Democrats won the most seats with 26 of the 67 and currently run the council as a minority administration. Labour and the Conservatives hold 17 seats each.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority		Swing Needed		Favourite	Prediction
Blyth Valley	Ronnie Campbell	8,527		12%		1/5	LAB Hold
Wansbeck	Denis Murphy	10,581		14.4%		1/5	LAB Hold
Hexham	Peter Atkinson	4,957		6.1%	8.4%	1/50	CON Hold
Berwick-u-Tweed	Alan Beith	8,585		11.8%		1/100	LD Hold

 

Blyth Valley (and Blyth before it) has returned a Labour MP ever since the seat's creation in 1950. Ronnie Campbell became its fourth representative in 1987 and it will be tough to shift him. It will be Jeffery Reid's task to try and secure a historic gain for the Liberal Democrats and although it will difficult he has a few things on his side. The council seats in this constituency are quite evenly split and Campbell didn't get through the expenses scandal unscathed. The MP bought furniture for his London flat but to his credit almost immediately owned up and agreed to repay the money. I think his response, and the size of his majority, will keep him in Parliament for another term; Labour Hold.

Wansbeck is another seat that Labour have held since its creation, this time in 1983. The current MP Denis Murphy is standing down after 13 years in Westminster. He did admit that the expenses scandal was a factor in his decision, but not necessarily his role in it. Although Murphey was asked to pay back almost £2000 over mortgage claims, he cited the 'press attack' on some of his colleagues as the key issue. This has left Ian Lavery with the job of holding this safe seat for Labour. Councillor Simon Reed will be hoping the Clegg bounce will help him win a seat in Parliament for the Lib Dems on his third run. But I think there is slightly too much ground to make up this year; Labour Hold.

The only period since the World War II the Conservatives didn't hold Hexham was because this constituency was providing the House with its Speaker. Peter Atkinson was first elected here in 1992 but he's decided to call it a day. At 65 he has stood aside to let someone with 'fresh ideas and enthusiasm' take over. The Tories will be hoping this hasn't gifted their opponents a great chance to take an open seat though. Guy Opperman will be trying to defend this to secure a seat in Westminster on his third attempt. He's up against Antoine Tinnion for Labour and Andrew Duffield for the Lib Dems, who is contesting Hexham for the second time. Duffield has the better chance with the Liberal Democrats seemingly doing even better in the North East than they are elsewhere. They'll almost certainly leapfrog Labour here, and if they can squeeze the red vote in future elections they'd be looking very strong, but I don't think the Conservatives will lose this next week; Tory Hold.

Sir Alan Beith is one of the safest Liberal Democrats in the country and he will again be contesting his Berwick-upon-Tweed seat. Beith was first elected in a 1973 by-election and as there isn't much to suggest he'll lose this year. Beith will clock up forty years in Parliament if he wins and the next term goes the distance. I think the former is almost certain; Lib Dem Hold.

A Look @: Shropshire

Regional polls indicate that support for the three main parties in the West Midlands have changed dramatically since 2005. The Tories are up to 38(+3), Labour 28(-11) and the Lib Dems 27(+8). The momentum seems to be with the Lib Dems as they're on the rise, compared to a slow fall for Labour and the Tories.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Ludlow	Philip Dunne	2,027	2.2%	1/3	LD Gain
S'sbury & Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	1,808	1.8%	1/10	CON Hold
Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	11,020	11.8%	1/100	CON Hold
Telford	David Wright	5,651	7.5%	8/15	CON Gain
The Wrekin	Mark Pritchard	1,187	1.4%	1/50	CON Hold

Ludlow sits Tory MP Philip Dunne and he has only a slim two thousand-vote vote majority. He's the bookies favourite to win here at 1/3. This is Lib Dem target seat number 14 and Heather Kidd has been tasked with taking this. She will. Turnout was relatively high at 72% (46,540 votes) in 2005 when Labour registered just under five thousand-vote. I'm putting most if not all the 550 Labour voters that will switch their vote on May 6^th to move to Lib Dem. Leaving their expected vote tally currently at 21,018 and rising. Compare this to Dunne's expected 21,608 and falling and you have an extremely tight race on your hands. If Christopher Gill (UKIP PPC) takes any votes of the Tories in Ludlow, and I expect he will during a time where Cameron has lost the confidence of many to his right, it's definitely a victory for Kidd. One to watch! LIB Gain.

Daniel Kawwczynski is the tallest MP in parliament and Tory MP for Shrewsbury & Atcham. He may have a smaller majority than Dunne, but it's Labour's Jon Tandy who is right behind him and this election is all about defense for Labour. I'm guessing Tandy won't be getting much support from Labour HQ. CON Hold.

Shropshire North is held by Owen Paterson, the Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary. This won't change hands. He's starting eleven thousand-votes notionally ahead. CON Hold.

David Wright may have denied it, but definitely is a 'twit' and will be under the cosh this election. Telford is five and a half thousand-votes from turning blue on May 6^th. The regional polls indicate that he's out this year. To it's 3^rd time lucky for Tom Biggins, who seems a curious individual. CON Gain.

Mark Pritchard is the Conservative MP holding The Wrekin. The Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen, Paul Kalinauckas (LAB PPC) will do well to stay near Pritchard, as I expect the Tory MP to increase his majority significantly. Nobody will be 'Wrekin' his chances here*. CON Hold.

*Apologies, couldn't resist with the crappy pun ;-)

 

Michael Turner