A Look @: Herefordshire & Worcestershire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Bromsgrove	Julie Kirkbride	10,080	10.5%	1/100	CON Hold
Hereford & H'shire S	Paul Keetch	1,089	1.2%	5/6	LD Hold
Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	12,688	14.2%	1/33	CON Hold
Redditch	Jacqui Smith	2,163	2.6%	1/8	CON Gain
Worcester	Michael Foster	3,144	3.4%	1/5	CON Gain
Worcestershire Mid	Peter Luff	12,906	13.7%	1/500	CON Hold
Worcester West	Michael Spicer	3,053	3%	4/7	LD Gain
Wyre Forest	Richard Taylor	4,613	4.8%	4/7	IND Hold

Bromsgrove sits Tory MP Julie Kirkbride. She's been forced not to stand again because of local unrest over her expenses claims. So Sajid Javid is the Tory PPC drafted in to replace her and he will take this one on the 6^th. CON Hold.

Hereford & Herefordshire South is a Lib Dem seat held by Paul Keetch, the one who had the affair according to the Telegraph, but he's not contesting at the election. This is Tory target seat number 24 but they won't get it in the current polling climate. It seems Clegg has put a bounce in Lib Dem PPC Sarah Carr's step. LIB Hold.

Like it or not, Bill Wiggin or the 'Phantom' will be back for Herefordshire North. He actually got a majority of votes (that's over 50%) in 2005. 'Cleggmania' isn't bouncy enough for Lucy Hurds to get anywhere near the Phantom's twenty three and a half thousand-vote notional. CON Hold.

Redditch sits Jacqui Smith, Labour MP and former Home Secretary. She claimed so much she got a plaque put up in her name! Oh and there was the tapes! And 42 days! No wonder she's being targeted, she's easy meat! CON Gain.

Tory target seat number 59 is Worcester. They'll take this one. Michael Foster has just over a three thousand-vote majority. I'm not sure it'll be enough to keep him there on May 6^th. Although he made a good impression with local students, will they be enough to keep him in a job at the election? I'm not so sure, and I think Robin Walker has this. CON Gain.

Worcester Mid is held by Peter 'shop till you swap' Luff who has almost a thirteen thousand-vote notional majority. So he's another expenses abuser who'll be back in Westminster on May 7^th. CON Hold.

Tory MP Michael Spicer sits for Lib Dem target seat number 21. Although I believe they'll gain around more than 21 seats this year, I'm not so sure the Lib Dems will take Worcester West. Spicer let you and I pick up the tab on a few things, so won't be contesting at the election. So Harriett Baldwin (Tory PPC) will be tussling with Richard Burt (LIB PPC) for this seat. This is set to be one to watch, but I think Burt will take this on an inevitable Labour crumble. The reasons are as follows. Any move from Labour will likely transfer to Burt. It's unlikely that a disillusioned hardcore Labour electorate who have voted Labour in a constituency where they've had no chance since it's creation in 1997 (where they registered just 15.7% of the local vote) will chose Tory over Lib Dem in a potential protest vote. Six of the ten Local councilors are Lib Dem. And finally turnout was high here in 2005 (70%), so there may be less Tory 'game changers' in the pool, suggesting that Burt is on a Labour charm offensive. I definitely think Burt's got this. LIB Gain.

In a time where all three major parties are getting a fair walloping by the public for expenses related debauchery, being an independent may not be such a bad idea. Richard Taylor holds Wyre Forest. He has over a four thousand-vote majority, but in reality UNS and national opinion polls don't really work here. I think he'll hold base on the fact he's been a good boy and he's not from a major political party. IND Hold.

 

Michael Turner