A Look @: Staffordshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Burton	Janet Dean	2,132	2.4%	1/6	CON Gain
Cannock Chase	Ton Wright	8,726	10.5%	8/13	LAB Hold
Lichfield	Michael Faricant	7,791	8.2%	1/200	CON Hold
Newcastle-u-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	8,108	10.2%	1/3	LAB Hold
Stafford	David Kidney	1,852	2%	1/10	CON Gain
Staffordshire Moor'	Charlotte Atkins	1,618	1.9%	1/12	CON Hold
Staffordshire South	Patrick Cormack	8,346	15.3%	1/200	CON Hold
Stoke-On-Trent C	Mark Fisher	9,717	16.9%	1/5	LAB Hold
Stoke-On-Trent N	Joan Walley	13,666	19.4%	1/100	LAB Hold
Stoke-On-Trent S	Robert Fiello	8,324	11.3%	1/3	LAB Hold
Stone	William Cash	8,191	9.4%	1/200	CON Hold
Tamworth	Brian Jenkins	2,569	2.9%	1/5	CON Gain

Janet Dean, Labour MP, will not contest Burton at the election. Instead Ruth Smith will fight to hold this marginal. Andrew Griffiths is my favourite to take this seat however. CON Gain.

Tony Wright is another Labour MP standing down this year. He's not contesting Cannock Chase. The Times falsely accuses Wight of fraudulent claims and apologized. So Susan Woodward will be fighting against Aidan Burley (Tory PPC) to hold this one for Labour. She should be successful, she's notionally ahead by almost nine thousand-votes. LAB Hold.

Tory MP Michael Fabricant will hold Lichfield at the election. The most interesting part of the day will be guessing what hairstyle he'll give his victory speech with. Seriously it's crazy. CON Hold.

Labour MP Paul Farrelly holds Newcastle-Under-Lyme. A 10.2% swing directly from Farrelly to Robert Jenrick (Tory PPC) is needed to turn this seat blue on May 6^th. He was part of the failed Brown-Coup in 2009, publically calling for Brown to go in recognition of Labour's poor performance in Staffordshire local elections. It's a big task, probably too big for Jenrick this year. One to watch. LAB Hold.

Stafford is Tory target seat number 37. David Kidney is seeking re-election, but is well within the reach of Jeremy Lefroy (Tory PPC). Just a 2% swing from Kidney to Lefroy will take this for the Tories. That will be easy enough under the current political climate. CON Gain.

Staffordshire Moorlands sits Charlotte Atkins, the Labour MP who claimed a fair wedge for renovations in her 2^nd home according to the Telegraph. So Karen Bradley is my favourite to take this seat. Unfortunately for Atkins, thanks to the latest round of boundary alterations, her constituency (altered by 37% according to R&T) has gone from a Labour majority, to being notionally Tory. Essentially, it's already hers. CON Gain.

Staffordshire South is home to the hilarious Sir Patrick Cormack. He ran for speaker and thinks MP's pay should double and when he realized that basically it wasn't going to happen, he announced that he would resign. So his replacement Gavin Williamson will clear this one up. CON Hold.

Mark Fisher is yet another Labour MP to stand down at the election. So Tristram Hunt, has been parachuted-in by Labour HQ to hold the relatively safe Stoke-On-Trent Central. LAB Hold.

Joan Walley, Labour MP, will hold on to Stoke-On-Trent North she's thirteen and a half thousand-votes ahead notionally. LAB Hold.

Labour MP Robert Flello will just hold off James Rushton (Tory PPC) in the fight for Stoke-On-Trent South. Rushton would need an 11.3% swing from Flello to secure this, but there's too much competition on the right with Michael Coleman (BNP) and Mark Barlow (UKIP) standing, to climb eight and a half thousand-votes in this seat. LAB Hold.

William Cash, Tory MP, will hold Stone on May 6^th, despite claiming taxpayer's 'cash' to give to his daughter. Labour pushed into 3^rd here, this seat is firmly Tory. CON Hold.

Brian Jenkins sits in Tory target seat number 52. Tamworth has a notional Labour majority of just two and a half thousand-votes. So Christopher Pincher (Tory PPC) will take this one on May 6^th. CON Gain.

 

Michael Turner