How far can the Lib Dems go?

All of a sudden political analysts across the country are looking, probably for the first time, down the list of Liberal Democrat 'targets'. I'd use that term carefully as whilst the Conservatives have been ploughing resources into at least 150 marginal seats up but until Thursday the Lib Dems would have been happy to hold on to all the seats they have right now and maybe nick a couple others. So now this could be a three horse race I'll hopefully illustrate how the Lib Dems aren't as far away as people think. To show this I'll have a look at some of the recent polls and see how that would translate into a certain seat, namely Plymouth Sutton & Devonport. The following table shows the four pre-debate polls, which includes an ICM poll that put the Lib Dems on 27% on the back of their manifesto launch, compared to the four post-debate polls. The change shown is from the 2005 result.

Party	Pre Debate		Post Debate
CON	37	+4	32	-1
LAB	31	-5	28	-8
LD	22	-1	30	+7
OTH	10	+2	10	+2

 

These are quite extraordinary figures and must be very worrying for the two main parties. They leave the Conservatives on the same vote share as William Hague achieved in 2001 and Labour around Michael Foot's 1983 level. Uniform swing projections are showing Labour as the largest party in a balanced Parliament but realistically that's discounting the money and effort the Conservatives have put into the marginals. I'd expect the Tories to be winning more seats than the 4.5% LAB>CON swing would suggest on UNS. But anyway, onto the Lib Dems, who are clearly the real story at the moment. How many seats could they win? UNS already discounts the local effort the Liberal Democrats put into making the most of the First-Past-the-Post system. Our pre-surge predictions reflected this and as things are I think the Lib Dems look unlikely to lose any of their current seats. But the attention turns to the ones they might win.

Plymouth S & D is the Lib Dems #79 target and the Conservatives #105. The Tories need it for a majority which, at this precise moment, isn't looking likely. But can the Lib Dems come from third at take it? Well, this surge in support has certainly made this more likely. In 2005 the swing in the old Plymouth Sutton seat, which is very similar to the new seat, was double the national swing. The Lib Dems increased their vote share by 4% nationwide but by 8% in Plymouth Sutton. Similarly Labour's loss was double and the Tories virtually stood still. So with that in mind there is form for above average swing in this seat. The following table applies UNS to Plymouth S & D on the basis of the pre- and post- debate polls (rounded for simplicity).

Party	2005 Notional	Pre Debate	Post Debate
CON	30	34	29
LAB	41	36	33
LD	23	22	30
OTH	7	9	9

 

As we can see Cleggmania has changed this seat from a LAB>CON marginal, which I'd predicted the Tories would just take, to a really open three way fight. The UNS calculations running around in the media really are useless. With this hypothetical vote share Labour are allegedly the largest party but it's entirely based on assumptions that they'll win every seat like Plymouth S & D. And I suspect there are many many more like this. If the surge in support is maintained throughout this campaign then I don't think anyone can predict how these seats will react. A lot will be made of tactical voting but it would be almost impossible to tell who to switch to. If you're anti-Tory do you prop up Labour? If you're all for change do you go with the Tories? Or perhaps you should just vote with your heart and see what happens?! In past elections tactical voting has been pretty much a Lib/Lab pact so it's worth considering how much of Labour's majority in Plymouth can be attributed to Lib Dems voting tactically in previous elections. But now Lib Dem leaning voters across the country will be faced with a novel concept; the Lib Dem's could actually win in their constituency. How will they vote on May 6^th if this all continues? Your guess is as good as mine!