A Look @: Lincolnshire

Of the 77 seats on Lincolnshire County Council the Conservatives hold 60, Lib Dems 5, Labour 4 and 8 others. Whereas the 2005 general election saw the total Tory vote in Lincolnshire at 172,332, Labour 165,328 and Lib Dems 79,532. So although the Lib Dems are notionally in 3^rd in every Lincolnshire seat (other than Boston & Skegness where UKIP are 47 votes ahead their strongest campaign for a parliamentary seat in 2005), there appears to be a platform for potential Lib Dem gains alongside the Tories. The notionals combined with current regional swing figures suggest that the Lib Dems have scope to make very large gains in the vote share in the East Midlands. Lib Dems support in the East Midlands has gained 11points since 2005 (according to PoliticsHome/YouGov polls) at the expense of mainly Labour (-10) and to a lesser extent the Tories (-1). But as always, regional data can only accompany detailed individual analysis. So here they are.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Boston & Skegness	Mark Simmonds	6,391	7.4%	1/200	CON Hold
Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	7,895	8.9%	1/50	CON Hold
Grantham & Stamford	Quentin Davies	7,308	7.9%	1/500	CON Hold
Lincoln	Gillian Merron	3,806	4.7%	1/3	CON Gain
Louth & Horncastle	Peter Taspell	9,813	10.5%	1/500	CON Hold
Sleaford & North Hykeham	Douglas Hogg	12,687	12.1%	1/50	CON Hold
South Holland & The Deepings	John Hayes	15,127	16.2%	1/500	CON Hold

Boston & Skegness sits Tory MP Mark Simmonds who holds a notional majority of almost six and a half thousand-votes. It's unlikely that this seat will change at the election. CON Hold.

Edward Leigh has almost an eight thousand-vote notional majority in Gainsborough. There's no evidence to suggest that either Labour or Lib Dem PPC's (James McMahon and Pat O'Connor respectively), will be able to get near taking this. Although I'm convinced O'Connor will come in a strong 2^nd pushing Labour to 3^rd here. CON Hold.

Grantham & Stamford was originally a Tory seat until Quentin Davies 'crossed the floor' in 2007. Although the local Labour party were delighted with his decision to join, he will in fact not be contesting at the election and the seat is still very much notionally Tory. Instead, PPC's Nick Boles (Tory), Mark Bartlett (Labour) and Harrish Bisnauthsing (Lib Dem) will be scrapping it out. It looks like it'll finish Boles, Bisnauthsing then Bartlett. I can't see Boles slipping up on this one. CON Gain.

Karl McCartney (Tory PPC) will oust Gillian Merron (Labour MP) in the contest for Lincoln this May. Everyone in Lincoln is aware that she trails McCartney into the election, what they might not know is that she could be trailing Reginald Shore (Lib Dem PPC) also. There is a distinct possibility that Merron will end up 3^rd at the count. CON Gain.

Peter Taspell won't be budged from Louth & Horncastle in May. The bookies will give you £2 for every thousand you lay on a Tory victory here. Quite right too. CON Hold.

The infamous Tory MP Douglas Hogg holds Sleaford & North Hykeham. He was blasted by the Telegraph for claiming expenses for clearing his moat. In light of the expenses scandal run by the Telegraph, he announced that he wouldn't be contesting at the next election. Stephen Phillips is the PPC who will contest this seat for the Tories. It seems that although the expenses scandal will have some affect on ballot on May 6^th, it's likely to be smaller and more condensed to particular high-profile cases of abuse than previously thought. Public disdain appears not to be party specific and towards existing MP's, so Hogg's standing down has effectively negated the potentially large impact it might have had on Tory support locally. CON Hold.

John Hayes holds South Holland & The Deepings. His expenses were the highest in the county, but he'll still be back in May. CON Hold.

 

Michael Turner