A Look @: Leicestershire

Leicestershire has seen only minor alterations from the Boundary Commission this year. The largest of which was less than 7%. So its unlikely that there will be any significant changes to the notional distributions in these seats. Labour currently dominates Leicester City Council with 38 seats, Tories 8, Lib Dems 6 and Greens 2. Whereas of the 81 seats in Leicestershire and Rutland the Tories hold 55, Lib Dems 16, Independents 5, Labour 4 and a single BNP councilor.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Bosworth	David Tredinnick	5,335	5.4%	1/100	CON Hold
Charnwood	Stephen Dorrell	8,613	9%	1/750	CON Hold
Harborough	Edward Garnier	4,047	4.2%	2/7	CON Hold
Leicester East	Keith Vaz	16,400	19.4%	1/250	LAB Hold
Leicester South	Peter Soulsby	3,727	4.4%	2/5	LD Gain
Leicester West	Patricia Hewitt	8,539	13.2%	1/7	LAB Hold
Leicestershire NW	David Taylor	4,477	4.8%	1/3	CON Gain
Leicestershire S	Andrew Robathan	7,704	7.9%	1/100	CON Hold
Loughborough	Andy Reed	1,816	1.9%	1/8	CON Gain
Rutland & Melton	Alan Duncan	12,998	13.1%	1/150	CON Hold

Tory MP David Tredinnick holds this seat and he's five thousand three hundred and thirty five votes ahead; notionally. It'll be enough to ensure he's back on May 6^th if he manages to remain 'intimate' with Bosworth residents. CON Hold.

Stephen Dorrell may have had trouble paying his council tax in the past, but he's worked out how to set up a direct debit and will be back on May 6^th. You'll make £1.33 on every £1,000 you lay on Dorrell holding Charnwood. Free money isn't it? CON Hold.

Tory incumbent MP Edward Garnier is just within reach of Lib Dem PPC Zuffar Haq. Around 25% of the population in this constituency are either full time students or graduates (2001 Census data). If turnout among the 18-25 year-olds rises significantly and the 'Cleggmania' holds around 28-30% then an upset is possible here. Harborough can be seen as a litmus test for the Lib Dem election campaign. If they manage to take this seat, then they will certainly be converting their national share into seats at a more efficient rate than in the past. Basically if they take this seat it's likely they'll have 100+ seats on May 7^th. I think it might be just a tad too much for Haq to overcome a four thousand-vote notional majority, but certainly one to watch! May change this one if polls are still odd in a week or two. CON Hold.

Labour MP Keith Vaz has a whopping 38.8% notional majority in his Leicester East constituency. He doesn't need to see things to make up his mind about them, so he's probably already made-up his mind, like us, that he's going to be re-elected. LAB Hold.

It's a shame that Peter Soulsby will surely be too busy campaigning to read this blog, which suggests he should just put up his feet and concede defeat in Leicester South. Although he remains relatively untarnished from the expenses debacle, 35% of this seat are Students and Graduates (2001 Census data). Parmjit Singh Gill, the Lib Dem PPC must tap into these to ensure victory, and that I don't end up eating some strange metaphorical hat. But, it's good to see that Labour HQ in some sense agree, and have organized what seems like 'a charm offensive' in recognition of this seats marginality. Not sure it's working. LIB Gain.

Leicester West will see Patricia Hewitt MP step down at the election. But she should have done just enough to ensure that Labour PPC Liz Kendall holds this one for Labour. LAB Hold…just.

Leicester North West is currently vacant as its constituents recently saw the unfortunate passing of the late David Taylor MP. Tory PPC Andrew Bridgen is the bookies favourite here, but Labour PPC Ross Willmott still has a chance. This will be close, but I'm with the bookies on this one. CON Gain.

Tory MP Andrew Robathan will hold Leicester South. This was the old Blaby constituency, and aside from the name, not much else has changed. He's got a buffer of over seven and a half thousand-votes, which will likely grow. CON Hold.

Labour MP Andy Reed holds Loughborough. Unfortunately the 'court of public opinion', like the expenses scandal, is not particularly fond of seeing Gordon Brown lead a Labour government for the next 5 years. The 2005 election saw two thirds of Labour's majority transfer directly to the Conservatives and Lib Dems in Loughborough, and that was with a Blair government who was slightly more popular than Brown's. This is Tory target seat number 18, so they'll take this constituency, with or without a majority. CON Gain.

Rutland & Melton is a Tory seat and has been since its creation in 1983. It's rural and 98.1% White British (2001 Census data). There may be a few homophobes in this constituency, but acts of loutish vandalism will only strengthen his vote here. What may eat into it however, are statements like being "treated like $@*£" by the thrifty taxpayer. Even still, he'll easily win. CON Hold.

 

Michael Turner