A Look @: Shropshire

Regional polls indicate that support for the three main parties in the West Midlands have changed dramatically since 2005. The Tories are up to 38(+3), Labour 28(-11) and the Lib Dems 27(+8). The momentum seems to be with the Lib Dems as they're on the rise, compared to a slow fall for Labour and the Tories.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Ludlow	Philip Dunne	2,027	2.2%	1/3	LD Gain
S'sbury & Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	1,808	1.8%	1/10	CON Hold
Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	11,020	11.8%	1/100	CON Hold
Telford	David Wright	5,651	7.5%	8/15	CON Gain
The Wrekin	Mark Pritchard	1,187	1.4%	1/50	CON Hold

Ludlow sits Tory MP Philip Dunne and he has only a slim two thousand-vote vote majority. He's the bookies favourite to win here at 1/3. This is Lib Dem target seat number 14 and Heather Kidd has been tasked with taking this. She will. Turnout was relatively high at 72% (46,540 votes) in 2005 when Labour registered just under five thousand-vote. I'm putting most if not all the 550 Labour voters that will switch their vote on May 6^th to move to Lib Dem. Leaving their expected vote tally currently at 21,018 and rising. Compare this to Dunne's expected 21,608 and falling and you have an extremely tight race on your hands. If Christopher Gill (UKIP PPC) takes any votes of the Tories in Ludlow, and I expect he will during a time where Cameron has lost the confidence of many to his right, it's definitely a victory for Kidd. One to watch! LIB Gain.

Daniel Kawwczynski is the tallest MP in parliament and Tory MP for Shrewsbury & Atcham. He may have a smaller majority than Dunne, but it's Labour's Jon Tandy who is right behind him and this election is all about defense for Labour. I'm guessing Tandy won't be getting much support from Labour HQ. CON Hold.

Shropshire North is held by Owen Paterson, the Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary. This won't change hands. He's starting eleven thousand-votes notionally ahead. CON Hold.

David Wright may have denied it, but definitely is a 'twit' and will be under the cosh this election. Telford is five and a half thousand-votes from turning blue on May 6^th. The regional polls indicate that he's out this year. To it's 3^rd time lucky for Tom Biggins, who seems a curious individual. CON Gain.

Mark Pritchard is the Conservative MP holding The Wrekin. The Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen, Paul Kalinauckas (LAB PPC) will do well to stay near Pritchard, as I expect the Tory MP to increase his majority significantly. Nobody will be 'Wrekin' his chances here*. CON Hold.

*Apologies, couldn't resist with the crappy pun ;-)

 

Michael Turner