A Look @: Hertfordshire (Part II)

We've split Hertfordshire into two parts. This one will discuss the eastern side of the county, including Stevenage, and you can find the western seats here. Politics in Hertfordshire is dominated by the Conservatives. They currently hold 9 of the 11 Parliamentary seats in the county and the other two Labour constituencies are well within their reach this year. As for the council, the Tories currently hold 55 of the 77 seats. In the 2009 local elections they picked up 9 seats as Labour lost 13, which has left the Liberal Democrats as the opposition on the council. Both the Greens and the BNP hold a seat each as well.

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Stevenage	Barbara Follett	3,288	4.1%	1/6	CON Gain
Welwyn Hatfield	Grant Shapps	5,946	6.7%	1/500	CON Hold
Broxbourne	Charles Walker	11,509	14.2%	1/500	CON Hold
Hertford & Stortford	Mark Prisk	12,756	13%	1/500	CON Hold
Hertfordshire NE	Oliver Heald	9,510	9.8%	1/500	CON Hold
Hitchin & Harpenden	Peter Lilley	11,064	11.5%	1/500	CON Hold

Stevenage is a seat well within the Conservative's reach. Barbra Follett won this seat in 1997 for Labour but she is not seeking re-election. This is perhaps wise as her conduct in this Parliament led the Mail to dub her the Expenses Queen! Follett's main claim was the £25,000 for security patrols around her London home. Combined with some other extravagant claims she topped the list of expenses repayments after Sir Thomas Legg asked her to put over £42k back in the public purse. Follett has left Labour PPC Sharon Taylor, who is the leader of their group on Stevenage Council, with a tough task to hold this seat. Stephen McPartland will be confident of a gain for the Conservatives and as it's target seat #72 they'll need Stevenage to gain a majority; Tory Gain.

Grant Shapps recaptured Welwyn Hatfield from Labour in 2005 after the Conservatives had lost the seat in 1997. Shapps was named a saint Telegraph due to his exemplary use of the expenses system so it will be difficult for the Labour candidate Mike Hobday. I don't think Shapps has much to worry about in May; Tory Hold.

The Broxbourne seat was created in 1983 and the Conservatives have held it ever since. Charles Walker became its second MP in 2005 and will be extremely confident on holding onto this safe seat; Tory Hold.

Hertford & Stortford is another seat the Conservatives have held since it was created in 1983 and Mark Prisk became its second representative in 2001. Prisk was asked to repay over £7,000 over mortgage claims which will give his opponents some hope of an upset. Labour have Steve Terry running and the Lib Dem candidate is Andrew Lewin. I doubt either will get close to Prisk though; Tory Hold.

The Conservative MP Oliver Heald has represented North East Hertfordshire since the seat was created in 1997. He'll continue to do so for a little while yet; Tory Hold.

Peter Lilley has been the Conservative MP for Hitchin & Harpenden since the seats creation in 1997. Lilley was asked to repay over £40,000 after Sir Thomas Legg deemed his financial dealings on his second home were not permitted. Lilley had bought the house with a loan from his wife but he then took out a mortgage to repay the money. However, he successfully appealed against the decision which technically clears him of any wrong doing. Whether the voters feel the same is another matter, and Nigel Quinton is the Lib Dem hoping to make a surprise gain for his party on the back of Lilley's property deal. Labour, who have Oli de Botton running, aren't too far behind the Lib Dems but I can't see either getting close; Tory Hold.