A Look @: Harrow & Hillingdon

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Harrow East	Tony McNulty	2,934	3.5%	4/9	CON Gain
Harrow West	Gareth Thomas	7,742	9.1%	4/7	LAB Hold
Hayes & Harlington	John McDonnell	10,594	14.3%	1/25	LAB Hold
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	Nick Hurd	13,274	15.4%	1/500	CON Hold
Uxbridge & Ruislip South	John Randall	7,178	9%	1/500	CON Hold

Labour MP Tony McNulty sits for Harrow East. He quit government due to rows over his expenses, but will still contest his seat on 6^th May. R&T show over a 17% boundary change from the commission this year, hacking McNulty's majority to within spitting distance of Tory PPC Bob Blackman. Blackman is the bookies favourite, for good reason, McNulty is under pressure with regards his expenses and Harrow East is high on the list of 116 marginals the Tories need for an overall majority. Con Gain.

Harrow West has seen half its constituency changed by this year's alteration, according to R&T. The effect has been to increase Labour's notional majority some five and a half thousand-votes, to the delight of Gareth Thomas MP. Rachel Joyce, Tory PPC, will be gutted with the Boundary Commission's work on Harrow West. Pre-alteration just a 2.1% swing would have secured her victory, compared to the 9.1% she needs currently. Oh well, at least she's shedding a few pounds. The change has saved Thomas; he has the Boundary Commission to thank in May. Lab Hold.

Residents of Haye & Harlington will give John McDonnell some credit for his defensive 'outburst' in the commons. These were over the implication that plans for Heathrow would have on his constituents, and would have done his political career no harm at all. Indeed, Ann Treneman dubbed it the 'Mowgli moment'. He has just under a 29% majority and being a Labour rebel is decent security in the current political climate anyway. Lab Hold.

Tory MP, Nick Hurd, has a 31% notional majority. It's not the 48% he returned in 2005, thanks to the 91.5% alteration that R&T say Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner has gone through. But it won't affect the final result. Con Hold.

Uxbridge & Ruislip South has had a 70% alteration to the constituency this year. But it's not affected John Randall's majority. He has almost eighteen thousand-votes notionally and will be back in May. Con Hold.

 

Michael Turner