A Look @: Northamptonshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed		Favourite	Prediction
Corby	Phil Hope	1,517	1.7%		1/10	CON Gain
Daventry	Tim Boswell	11,776	12.6%		1/500	CON Hold
Kettering	Phillip Hollobone	176	0.2%		1/25	CON Hold
Northampton N	Sally Keeble	3,340	4.5%	5.9%	4/9	LD Gain
Northampton S	Brian Binley	-1,445	1.9%		1/6	CON Gain
North'shire South		11,356	11.4%		1/500	CON Hold
Wellingborough	Peter Bone	610	0.6%		1/33	CON Hold

Labour MP Phil Hope will be defending Corby. No boundary alteration, so Louise Bagshawe, Tory PPC, will take advantage of Hope's overzealous expenses claims and the declining Labour vote in his constituency. Both will ensure that Bagshawe wins on May 6^th. CON Gain.

Daventry has seen over three quarters of its boundary altered this year. Tory MP Tim Boswell is standing down this year, so he will be replaced by Chris Heaton-Harris, who will have no problem defending almost a twelve thousand-vote notional majority. CON Hold.

Philip Hollobone's majority may have been significantly reduced, thanks to what R&T describe as a 20% boundary alteration to the Kettering constituency. But it seems that this MP is the best value for money in Westminster and he'll very likely hold this one on May 6^th. CON Hold.

Sally Keeble will have a very tough job on her hands in Northampton North. The Northamptonshire County Council Elections in 2009 returned 56 Tory seats, 9 Liberal Democrat, 6 Labour and 2 Independent. But Keeble's particular constituency is without a single Labour ward, it's currently made up of 6 Lib Dem wards and 4 Tory. The last elections taking place in 2009, it's clearly now a Tory/Lib Dem contest in Northampton North. I'm going against the bookies on this one. There's not a lot between Michael Ellis (Tory PPC) and Andrew Simpson (Lib Dem PPC), But Simpson will take Northampton North on the momentum behind him. A 6% swing will do this for Simpson. LIB Gain.

R&T say that Tory MP Brian Binley has had his marginal seat turned notionally Labour, thanks to the boundary commission's latest round of alterations, over half the seat has changed since 2005. But a quick glance at alterations and ward-level data from last year show that the task won't be difficult, if he manages to suppress local media getting wind of this, he should secure the Northampton South. CON Hold.

Northamptonshire South is a new seat and R&T suggest it's almost certainly notionally Tory. All the PPC's, Andrea Leadsom (Tory), Matthew May (Labour) & Scott Collins (Lib Dem) will be heavily reliant on the notional make-up and national polling level of their respective parties. The bookies have Leadsom odds on favourite at 1/500 because of the mammoth task ahead of her two counterparts. CON Gain.

Wellingborough is a Conservative marginal. But there doesn't appear to be much evidence of any Labour momentum in this constituency. Labour held Earls Barton ward by 0.1% in the 2009 local elections, that's a majority of just 3 votes! This is the only Labour held ward in a constituency where the Tories gained four. CON Hold.

 

Michael Turner