A Look @: Warwickshire

Constituency	Incumbent	Notional Majority	Swing Needed	Favourite	Prediction
Kenilworth & Southam		10,956	12.4%	1/500	CON Gain
Nuneaton	Bill Olner	3,894	4.9%	2/7	CON Gain
Rudby	Jeremy Wright	2,397	2.6%	1/20	CON Hold
Stratford-on-Avon	John Maples	10,928	12%	1/16	CON Hold
Warwick & Leamington	James Plaskitt	4,393	5.2%	8/15	CON Gain
Warwickshire North	Mike O'Brien	6,684	7.7%	8/11	CON Gain

Kenilworth & Southam is a new parliamentary seat. Jeremy Wright MP for the old Rugby & Kenilworth constituency (Now just Rugby) has decided to contest this seat instead of his own. Smart move. This new seat is very much notionally Tory. Tory support is almost eleven thousand-votes ahead on 2005 altered figures, compared to just two and a half thousand-votes in the new Rugby. He'll probably end up with around fifteen thousand, Labour will finish 3^rd here. CON Gain.

Bill Olner isn't contesting Nuneaton, so PPC Jayne Innes will fail to hold this one for Labour. R&T has estimated a 28% boundary change to this constituency, almost doubling the Labour notional. But it won't be enough. Nuneaton is Tory target seat number 85 and Marcus Jones (Tory PPC) will take this for them on May 6^th. CON Gain.

Rugby was held by Jeremy Wright, but he's made a tactical decision to contest the ultra-safe Kenilworth & Southam seat. He needn't have bothered. Rugby is notionally conservative by two and a half thousand-votes on 2005 figures. Mark Pawsey (Tory PPC) will walk this. CON Hold.

John Maples will not be contesting Stratford-on-Avon. The Telegraph reported that this was a little dodgy during the expenses scandal in 2009. But his replacement Nadhim Zahawi will clear this up for the Tories. The 36% boundary alteration has slightly increased the Tory notional majority. Essentially he's already 24% ahead. CON Hold.

Labour MP James Plaskitt will likely be the defeated by Chris White in the race for Warwick & Leamington. A 5.2% from Plaskitt to White will do it. Regional polls suggest that the Tories doing better than that in Warwickshire. CON Gain.

Mike O'Brien is the Labour MP for Warwickshire North. He's only slightly behind Dan Byles (Tory PPC) according to the bookies. But the current regional swing figures suggest that O'Brien is out after the election and I imagine that these figures will only grow in favor of the Tories and at the expense of Labour. Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen. CON Gain.

 

Michael Turner